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Tech·Chatgpt

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Market icon
Tech·Chatgpt

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

$18,450 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$18,450 Vol.

Polymarket

60%+

$17,670 Vol.

49%

70%+

$780 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro, released March 5, 2026, achieved a state-of-the-art 50% on FrontierMath Tiers 1-3—undergraduate-to-expert math problems vetted by top mathematicians—and 38% on research-level Tier 4, leapfrogging GPT-5.2's 40% and 31% marks from December 2025. This rapid advance in large language model mathematical reasoning, powered by massive scaling and enhanced chain-of-thought prompting, underscores OpenAI's lead over rivals like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and xAI's Grok 4.20. Trader sentiment hinges on sustained progress toward higher thresholds by June 30, with historical quarterly releases suggesting a GPT-5.5 possible, though benchmark difficulties and unannounced timelines introduce uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,450
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 12:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro, released March 5, 2026, achieved a state-of-the-art 50% on FrontierMath Tiers 1-3—undergraduate-to-expert math problems vetted by top mathematicians—and 38% on research-level Tier 4, leapfrogging GPT-5.2's 40% and 31% marks from December 2025. This rapid advance in large language model mathematical reasoning, powered by massive scaling and enhanced chain-of-thought prompting, underscores OpenAI's lead over rivals like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and xAI's Grok 4.20. Trader sentiment hinges on sustained progress toward higher thresholds by June 30, with historical quarterly releases suggesting a GPT-5.5 possible, though benchmark difficulties and unannounced timelines introduce uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,450
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 12:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

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Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

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Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?

73%
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Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

94%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "45%+" at 100%, followed by "50%+" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" has generated $18.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" is "45%+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50%+" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.