Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 320-380 tweets from March 24-31, 2026, with the 340-359 range leading at 11.5% implied probability amid tight competition from adjacent bins at 10.5% and 9.5%. This reflects Musk's recent high-volume patterns—averaging 40-50 daily posts during peak cultural moments like Tesla unveils or X platform drama—contrasted against quieter weeks below 300. Key drivers include his amplified role in pop culture via memes, political commentary, and SpaceX hype, with sentiment hinging on late-March event calendars like potential Starship tests or election-year buzz. Historical data shows volatility tied to real-time controversies, keeping lower ranges viable at 8.5% each while extremes fade.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated340-359 12%
320-339 11%
360-379 10%
280-299 9%
$638,568 Vol.
$638,568 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
5%
240-259
7%
260-279
7%
280-299
9%
300-319
9%
320-339
11%
340-359
12%
360-379
10%
380-399
8%
400-419
6%
420-439
5%
440-459
4%
460-479
3%
480-499
4%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
340-359 12%
320-339 11%
360-379 10%
280-299 9%
$638,568 Vol.
$638,568 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
5%
240-259
7%
260-279
7%
280-299
9%
300-319
9%
320-339
11%
340-359
12%
360-379
10%
380-399
8%
400-419
6%
420-439
5%
440-459
4%
460-479
3%
480-499
4%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 320-380 tweets from March 24-31, 2026, with the 340-359 range leading at 11.5% implied probability amid tight competition from adjacent bins at 10.5% and 9.5%. This reflects Musk's recent high-volume patterns—averaging 40-50 daily posts during peak cultural moments like Tesla unveils or X platform drama—contrasted against quieter weeks below 300. Key drivers include his amplified role in pop culture via memes, political commentary, and SpaceX hype, with sentiment hinging on late-March event calendars like potential Starship tests or election-year buzz. Historical data shows volatility tied to real-time controversies, keeping lower ranges viable at 8.5% each while extremes fade.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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