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icon for La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
Politique·Politique étrangère

La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?

icon for La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
Politique·Politique étrangère

La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?

juin 30

sept. 30

déc. 31

juin 30, 2027

juin 30

sept. 30

déc. 31

juin 30, 2027

Oui

7% chance
Polymarket

$31,333,995 Vol.

Oui

7% chance
Polymarket

$31,333,995 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plan for invading Taiwan by 2027, favoring sustained coercive measures such as air and maritime incursions, economic leverage, and political outreach to advance unification without force. This view aligns with Beijing’s recent diplomatic steps, including acceptance of a senior Taiwanese official at May 2026 APEC meetings and the Trump-Xi summit focused on trade without new Taiwan Strait escalation. Ongoing PLA gray-zone activities and capability development continue, yet traders price the high risk of failure in any amphibious operation, potential US intervention, and absence of imminent triggers as supporting the 93.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs by end-2026. Late-breaking shifts in US policy, major cross-strait miscalculation, or internal Chinese leadership changes remain possible factors that could alter this consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$31,333,995
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET

Résolveur

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plan for invading Taiwan by 2027, favoring sustained coercive measures such as air and maritime incursions, economic leverage, and political outreach to advance unification without force. This view aligns with Beijing’s recent diplomatic steps, including acceptance of a senior Taiwanese official at May 2026 APEC meetings and the Trump-Xi summit focused on trade without new Taiwan Strait escalation. Ongoing PLA gray-zone activities and capability development continue, yet traders price the high risk of failure in any amphibious operation, potential US intervention, and absence of imminent triggers as supporting the 93.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs by end-2026. Late-breaking shifts in US policy, major cross-strait miscalculation, or internal Chinese leadership changes remain possible factors that could alter this consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$31,334,162
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET

Résolveur

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026? » à 7%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 7¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 7% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ? » a généré $31.3 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jul 24, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ? » est « La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026? » à seulement 7%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.