Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Name: Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Start: 2025-07-24T22:05:19.517Z
End: 2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z

World·Global Elections

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Apr 12

Péter Magyar 64%

Viktor Orbán 36%

László Toroczkai <1%

István Kapitány <1%

$35,284,854 Vol.

Apr 12, 2026

Péter Magyar

$4,148,318 Vol.

64%

Viktor Orbán

$3,639,379 Vol.

36%

László Toroczkai

$11,226,846 Vol.

István Kapitány

$9,202,609 Vol.

<1%

János Lázár

$2,614,448 Vol.

<1%

Klára Dobrev

$4,453,384 Vol.

<1%

Péter Magyar 64%

Viktor Orbán 36%

László Toroczkai <1%

István Kapitány <1%

$35,284,854 Vol.

Apr 12, 2026

Péter Magyar

$4,148,318 Vol.

64%

Viktor Orbán

$3,639,379 Vol.

36%

László Toroczkai

$11,226,846 Vol.

István Kapitány

$9,202,609 Vol.

<1%

János Lázár

$2,614,448 Vol.

<1%

Klára Dobrev

$4,453,384 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Péter Magyar as the clear frontrunner at 63.5% to become Hungary's next Prime Minister, with incumbent Viktor Orbán at 35.5%, driven by Tisza party's sustained polling lead over Fidesz following its upset victory in the June 2024 European Parliament elections. Recent national surveys from early October, including a Median poll showing Tisza ahead by 14 points (44% vs. 30%), reflect voter discontent with inflation, EU fund disputes, and government scandals like the pardon controversy, boosting Magyar's outsider appeal. Orbán's coalition holds parliamentary control until the 2026 election, but eroding support in swing districts has traders betting on opposition momentum. Minor candidates like László Toroczkai garner niche far-right backing but lack broad viability.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 26, 2026, 10:50 AM UTC

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

66%

Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

71%

Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

59%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Hungary" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Péter Magyar" at 64%, followed by "Viktor Orbán" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" has generated $35.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Hungary," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" is "Péter Magyar" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Viktor Orbán" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Next Prime Minister of Hungary." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $35.3 million traded on “Next Prime Minister of Hungary,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Next Prime Minister of Hungary," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 64¢ for "Péter Magyar" in the "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 64% chance that "Péter Magyar" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 64¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 36¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 12, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" market has an active community of 1,145 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Next Prime Minister of Hungary." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

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