Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight first-round race for Peru's April 12 presidential election, with comedian Carlos Álvarez leading at 27% implied probability due to his late surge in recent Ipsos and Datum polls, fueled by viral debate clips showcasing populist appeals amid voter fatigue from political instability. Keiko Fujimori holds steady at 23% on her established right-wing base, while Roberto Sánchez Palomino and Rafael López Aliaga trail closely at 16% each, splitting conservative support in a record 35-candidate field where fragmentation and 30%+ undecided voters keep odds bunched. Final campaign pushes, regional turnout in Lima and provinces, or scandals could propel top-two contenders to a June runoff, as no one nears the 50% threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPeru Presidential Election Winner
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Carlos Álvarez 26.9%
Keiko Fujimori 23%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 16.2%
Rafael López Aliaga 16%
$5,912,631 Vol.
$5,912,631 Vol.
Carlos Álvarez
27%
Keiko Fujimori
23%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
16%
Rafael López Aliaga
16%
Ricardo Belmont
5%
Alfonso López Chau
4%
Jorge Nieto
3%
Marisol Pérez Tello
1%
Yonhy Lescano
1%
Carlos Espá
1%
Fernando Olivera
1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
César Acuña
<1%
Mesías Guevara
<1%
Mario Vizcarra
<1%
George Forsyth
<1%
Vladimir Cerrón
<1%
Roberto Chiabra
<1%
Enrique Valderrama
<1%
José Luna
<1%
José Williams
<1%
Fiorella Molinelli
<1%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
Carlos Álvarez 26.9%
Keiko Fujimori 23%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 16.2%
Rafael López Aliaga 16%
$5,912,631 Vol.
$5,912,631 Vol.
Carlos Álvarez
27%
Keiko Fujimori
23%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
16%
Rafael López Aliaga
16%
Ricardo Belmont
5%
Alfonso López Chau
4%
Jorge Nieto
3%
Marisol Pérez Tello
1%
Yonhy Lescano
1%
Carlos Espá
1%
Fernando Olivera
1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
César Acuña
<1%
Mesías Guevara
<1%
Mario Vizcarra
<1%
George Forsyth
<1%
Vladimir Cerrón
<1%
Roberto Chiabra
<1%
Enrique Valderrama
<1%
José Luna
<1%
José Williams
<1%
Fiorella Molinelli
<1%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight first-round race for Peru's April 12 presidential election, with comedian Carlos Álvarez leading at 27% implied probability due to his late surge in recent Ipsos and Datum polls, fueled by viral debate clips showcasing populist appeals amid voter fatigue from political instability. Keiko Fujimori holds steady at 23% on her established right-wing base, while Roberto Sánchez Palomino and Rafael López Aliaga trail closely at 16% each, splitting conservative support in a record 35-candidate field where fragmentation and 30%+ undecided voters keep odds bunched. Final campaign pushes, regional turnout in Lima and provinces, or scandals could propel top-two contenders to a June runoff, as no one nears the 50% threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
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