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Elections·Global Elections

Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner

icon for Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner
Elections·Global Elections

Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner

Doly Begum 100.0%

Diana Filipova <1%

Fatima Shaban <1%

Pooja Malhotra <1%

Polymarket

$63,524 Vol.

Doly Begum 100.0%

Diana Filipova <1%

Fatima Shaban <1%

Pooja Malhotra <1%

Polymarket

$63,524 Vol.

icon for Doly Begum

Doly Begum

$42,734 Vol.

Yes

icon for Diana Filipova

Diana Filipova

$4,526 Vol.

No

icon for Fatima Shaban

Fatima Shaban

$9,763 Vol.

No

icon for Pooja Malhotra

Pooja Malhotra

$1,440 Vol.

No

icon for Lyall Sanders

Lyall Sanders

$1,254 Vol.

No

icon for April Francisco

April Francisco

$1,228 Vol.

No

icon for David Vedova

David Vedova

$1,371 Vol.

No

icon for Peter Koubakis

Peter Koubakis

$1,208 Vol.

No

A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Doly Begum's 100% market consensus reflects her official victory in the April 13, 2026, federal by-election for Scarborough Southwest, Ontario, where Elections Canada results projected a strong Liberal win after polls closed. The former New Democratic Party provincial MPP, who switched to the federal Liberals ahead of the vote, capitalized on incumbency-like recognition in the diverse Toronto riding to defeat challengers from other parties, securing Prime Minister Mark Carney's majority government. This outcome, confirmed by major networks with substantial vote tallies reported, drove traders to price her as the definitive MP-elect. Realistic challenges, such as a judicial recount triggered by close margins or proven irregularities, appear unlikely given her comfortable lead.

A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$63,524
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Doly Begum's 100% market consensus reflects her official victory in the April 13, 2026, federal by-election for Scarborough Southwest, Ontario, where Elections Canada results projected a strong Liberal win after polls closed. The former New Democratic Party provincial MPP, who switched to the federal Liberals ahead of the vote, capitalized on incumbency-like recognition in the diverse Toronto riding to defeat challengers from other parties, securing Prime Minister Mark Carney's majority government. This outcome, confirmed by major networks with substantial vote tallies reported, drove traders to price her as the definitive MP-elect. Realistic challenges, such as a judicial recount triggered by close margins or proven irregularities, appear unlikely given her comfortable lead.

A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$63,524
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Doly Begum" at 100%, followed by "Diana Filipova" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" has generated $63.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" is "Doly Begum" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Diana Filipova" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.