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Elections·Global Elections

Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner

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Elections·Global Elections

Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner

Doly Begum 98.8%

Diana Filipova <1%

Fatima Shaban <1%

April Francisco <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Doly Begum 98.8%

Diana Filipova <1%

Fatima Shaban <1%

April Francisco <1%

Polymarket
NEW
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Doly Begum

$3,414 Vol.

99%

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Diana Filipova

$431 Vol.

1%

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Fatima Shaban

$358 Vol.

<1%

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April Francisco

$431 Vol.

<1%

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Peter Koubakis

$452 Vol.

<1%

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Pooja Malhotra

$431 Vol.

<1%

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Lyall Sanders

$431 Vol.

<1%

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David Vedova

$432 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Doly Begum's near-certain trader consensus at 98.8% in the Scarborough Southwest federal by-election stems from her dominant position as the Liberal candidate, leveraging eight years as the provincial MPP for the same diverse Toronto riding for unmatched name recognition among South Asian and immigrant communities. A March 3 Mainstreet poll of 464 residents showed her at 57% against 22% for Conservative Diana Filipova and 15% for NDP's Fatima Shaban, while 338Canada's March 29 projection gave Liberals 62% and >99% win odds, aligning with the riding's 2025 Liberal hold at 61%. Advance polls opened April 3 amid active campaigning, including Liberal leader Mark Carney's door-knocking. With election day April 13, low-probability challenges include a late Conservative or NDP surge from 22% undecideds, turnout surprises, or scandals.

A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$6,380
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Doly Begum's near-certain trader consensus at 98.8% in the Scarborough Southwest federal by-election stems from her dominant position as the Liberal candidate, leveraging eight years as the provincial MPP for the same diverse Toronto riding for unmatched name recognition among South Asian and immigrant communities. A March 3 Mainstreet poll of 464 residents showed her at 57% against 22% for Conservative Diana Filipova and 15% for NDP's Fatima Shaban, while 338Canada's March 29 projection gave Liberals 62% and >99% win odds, aligning with the riding's 2025 Liberal hold at 61%. Advance polls opened April 3 amid active campaigning, including Liberal leader Mark Carney's door-knocking. With election day April 13, low-probability challenges include a late Conservative or NDP surge from 22% undecideds, turnout surprises, or scandals.

A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$6,380
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Doly Begum" at 99%, followed by "Diana Filipova" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" is "Doly Begum" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Diana Filipova" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.