Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured a commanding lead in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election popular vote, with official National Election Office results showing 53.2% for Tisza versus 38.6% for Fidesz-KDNP—a 14.6% margin fitting the 12-15% bin—amid record 79% turnout that amplified anti-incumbency sentiment after 16 years of Viktor Orbán rule. Pre-election polls from Median and others accurately projected Tisza's supermajority path, fueled by Magyar's ex-Fidesz insider status, corruption exposés, economic discontent, and urban youth mobilization, flipping even Fidesz strongholds. Trader consensus at near-certainty reflects 99%+ vote counts locking the outcome, with minimal risk from final overseas ballots or recounts shifting beyond this range absent major irregularities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTisza 12-15% 100.0%
Tisza 18%+ <1%
Tisza 15-18% <1%
Tisza 9-12% <1%
$888,211 Vol.
$888,211 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 18%+
No
Tisza 15-18%
No
Tisza 12-15%
Yes
Tisza 9-12%
No
Tisza <9%
No
Other
No
Tisza 12-15% 100.0%
Tisza 18%+ <1%
Tisza 15-18% <1%
Tisza 9-12% <1%
$888,211 Vol.
$888,211 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 18%+
$164,816 Vol.
No
Tisza 15-18%
$236,447 Vol.
No
Tisza 12-15%
$276,795 Vol.
Yes
Tisza 9-12%
$128,843 Vol.
No
Tisza <9%
$48,403 Vol.
No
Other
$32,906 Vol.
No
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured a commanding lead in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election popular vote, with official National Election Office results showing 53.2% for Tisza versus 38.6% for Fidesz-KDNP—a 14.6% margin fitting the 12-15% bin—amid record 79% turnout that amplified anti-incumbency sentiment after 16 years of Viktor Orbán rule. Pre-election polls from Median and others accurately projected Tisza's supermajority path, fueled by Magyar's ex-Fidesz insider status, corruption exposés, economic discontent, and urban youth mobilization, flipping even Fidesz strongholds. Trader consensus at near-certainty reflects 99%+ vote counts locking the outcome, with minimal risk from final overseas ballots or recounts shifting beyond this range absent major irregularities.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$888,211End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured a commanding lead in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election popular vote, with official National Election Office results showing 53.2% for Tisza versus 38.6% for Fidesz-KDNP—a 14.6% margin fitting the 12-15% bin—amid record 79% turnout that amplified anti-incumbency sentiment after 16 years of Viktor Orbán rule. Pre-election polls from Median and others accurately projected Tisza's supermajority path, fueled by Magyar's ex-Fidesz insider status, corruption exposés, economic discontent, and urban youth mobilization, flipping even Fidesz strongholds. Trader consensus at near-certainty reflects 99%+ vote counts locking the outcome, with minimal risk from final overseas ballots or recounts shifting beyond this range absent major irregularities.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Volume
$888,211End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured a commanding lead in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election popular vote, with official National Election Office results showing 53.2% for Tisza versus 38.6% for Fidesz-KDNP—a 14.6% margin fitting the 12-15% bin—amid record 79% turnout that amplified anti-incumbency sentiment after 16 years of Viktor Orbán rule. Pre-election polls from Median and others accurately projected Tisza's supermajority path, fueled by Magyar's ex-Fidesz insider status, corruption exposés, economic discontent, and urban youth mobilization, flipping even Fidesz strongholds. Trader consensus at near-certainty reflects 99%+ vote counts locking the outcome, with minimal risk from final overseas ballots or recounts shifting beyond this range absent major irregularities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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