Trader consensus strongly favors Tisza at 76% implied probability to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election, driven by recent polls like Medián's March 17–20 survey showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz–KDNP's 35%, widening a prior 20-point lead amid economic stagnation after three years of recession. Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza has unified fragmented opposition support, particularly among younger voters, while incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz faces backlash from a March 26 documentary alleging systematic rural vote-buying via cash, jobs, and essentials. Divergent polls from government-aligned firms show tighter races, but intensifying campaign rallies and undecided voter shifts sustain Tisza's edge in this proportional representation contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTisza 76%
Fidesz–KDNP 25%
Other <1%
$104,542 Vol.
$104,542 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz–KDNP
25%
Tisza
76%
Other
<1%
Tisza 76%
Fidesz–KDNP 25%
Other <1%
$104,542 Vol.
$104,542 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz–KDNP
$58,409 Vol.
25%
Tisza
$46,133 Vol.
76%
Other
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Trader consensus strongly favors Tisza at 76% implied probability to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election, driven by recent polls like Medián's March 17–20 survey showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz–KDNP's 35%, widening a prior 20-point lead amid economic stagnation after three years of recession. Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza has unified fragmented opposition support, particularly among younger voters, while incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz faces backlash from a March 26 documentary alleging systematic rural vote-buying via cash, jobs, and essentials. Divergent polls from government-aligned firms show tighter races, but intensifying campaign rallies and undecided voter shifts sustain Tisza's edge in this proportional representation contest.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Market Opened: Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$104,542End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Trader consensus strongly favors Tisza at 76% implied probability to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election, driven by recent polls like Medián's March 17–20 survey showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz–KDNP's 35%, widening a prior 20-point lead amid economic stagnation after three years of recession. Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza has unified fragmented opposition support, particularly among younger voters, while incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz faces backlash from a March 26 documentary alleging systematic rural vote-buying via cash, jobs, and essentials. Divergent polls from government-aligned firms show tighter races, but intensifying campaign rallies and undecided voter shifts sustain Tisza's edge in this proportional representation contest.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$104,542End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors Tisza at 76% implied probability to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election, driven by recent polls like Medián's March 17–20 survey showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz–KDNP's 35%, widening a prior 20-point lead amid economic stagnation after three years of recession. Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza has unified fragmented opposition support, particularly among younger voters, while incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz faces backlash from a March 26 documentary alleging systematic rural vote-buying via cash, jobs, and essentials. Divergent polls from government-aligned firms show tighter races, but intensifying campaign rallies and undecided voter shifts sustain Tisza's edge in this proportional representation contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
33%
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
63%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
64%
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