Republican majorities in the Senate (53-47) and House following the 2024 elections make impeachment conviction—requiring a two-thirds Senate vote—practically impossible without extraordinary bipartisan defection, driving trader consensus to 98% on "No" for Trump exiting the presidency by April 30, 2025. The narrow roughly 100-day post-inauguration window on January 20 further limits feasible removal paths like resignation or 25th Amendment invocation, with no public indications of such from the president-elect amid smooth transition progress. Recent cabinet nominations, including Pete Hegseth for Defense and ongoing Senate confirmation prep despite withdrawals like Matt Gaetz's, alongside Trump's vigorous public appearances, underscore stability. Low-probability disruptors could include sudden health events, massive scandals, or internal administration action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
$24,213 Vol.
NEW
$24,213 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
$24,213 Vol.
NEW
$24,213 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in the Senate (53-47) and House following the 2024 elections make impeachment conviction—requiring a two-thirds Senate vote—practically impossible without extraordinary bipartisan defection, driving trader consensus to 98% on "No" for Trump exiting the presidency by April 30, 2025. The narrow roughly 100-day post-inauguration window on January 20 further limits feasible removal paths like resignation or 25th Amendment invocation, with no public indications of such from the president-elect amid smooth transition progress. Recent cabinet nominations, including Pete Hegseth for Defense and ongoing Senate confirmation prep despite withdrawals like Matt Gaetz's, alongside Trump's vigorous public appearances, underscore stability. Low-probability disruptors could include sudden health events, massive scandals, or internal administration action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$24,213End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in the Senate (53-47) and House following the 2024 elections make impeachment conviction—requiring a two-thirds Senate vote—practically impossible without extraordinary bipartisan defection, driving trader consensus to 98% on "No" for Trump exiting the presidency by April 30, 2025. The narrow roughly 100-day post-inauguration window on January 20 further limits feasible removal paths like resignation or 25th Amendment invocation, with no public indications of such from the president-elect amid smooth transition progress. Recent cabinet nominations, including Pete Hegseth for Defense and ongoing Senate confirmation prep despite withdrawals like Matt Gaetz's, alongside Trump's vigorous public appearances, underscore stability. Low-probability disruptors could include sudden health events, massive scandals, or internal administration action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,213End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican majorities in the Senate (53-47) and House following the 2024 elections make impeachment conviction—requiring a two-thirds Senate vote—practically impossible without extraordinary bipartisan defection, driving trader consensus to 98% on "No" for Trump exiting the presidency by April 30, 2025. The narrow roughly 100-day post-inauguration window on January 20 further limits feasible removal paths like resignation or 25th Amendment invocation, with no public indications of such from the president-elect amid smooth transition progress. Recent cabinet nominations, including Pete Hegseth for Defense and ongoing Senate confirmation prep despite withdrawals like Matt Gaetz's, alongside Trump's vigorous public appearances, underscore stability. Low-probability disruptors could include sudden health events, massive scandals, or internal administration action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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