President Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, 2026, after expressing frustration with her tenure at the Justice Department, immediately elevating Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche to acting AG and cementing her as the next cabinet departure with 100% trader consensus. This follows Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's ouster last month, highlighting early second-term turnover amid reported internal pressures. The skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds prices near-certainty on Bondi given the official White House announcement, though scenarios like a last-minute reversal, health issue, or procedural delay in resignation processing could theoretically challenge resolution. Traders now watch for Trump's nominee announcement and ensuing Senate confirmation hearings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPam Bondi 100.0%
Marco Rubio <1%
Scott Bessent <1%
Sean Duffy <1%
$2,875,843 Vol.
$2,875,843 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Marco Rubio
No
Scott Bessent
No
Sean Duffy
No
Lee Zeldin
No
None before 2027
No
Doug Burgum
No
Brooke Rollins
No
Scott Turner
No
Chris Wright
No
Susie Wiles
No
Tulsi Gabbard
No
Kelly Loeffler
No
Pam Bondi
Yes
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
No
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
No
John Ratcliffe
No
Jamieson Greer
No
Mike Waltz
No
J.D. Vance
No
Pete Hegseth
No
Howard Lutnick
No
Linda McMahon
No
Doug Collins
No
Russell T. Vought
No
Pam Bondi 100.0%
Marco Rubio <1%
Scott Bessent <1%
Sean Duffy <1%
$2,875,843 Vol.
$2,875,843 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Marco Rubio
$59,631 Vol.
No
Scott Bessent
$13,420 Vol.
No
Sean Duffy
$74,192 Vol.
No
Lee Zeldin
$80,634 Vol.
No
None before 2027
$785,384 Vol.
No
Doug Burgum
$9,789 Vol.
No
Brooke Rollins
$14,523 Vol.
No
Scott Turner
$11,822 Vol.
No
Chris Wright
$14,595 Vol.
No
Susie Wiles
$13,582 Vol.
No
Tulsi Gabbard
$742,361 Vol.
No
Kelly Loeffler
$10,281 Vol.
No
Pam Bondi
$121,369 Vol.
Yes
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$84,121 Vol.
No
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$16,518 Vol.
No
John Ratcliffe
$7,749 Vol.
No
Jamieson Greer
$12,642 Vol.
No
Mike Waltz
$13,463 Vol.
No
J.D. Vance
$15,549 Vol.
No
Pete Hegseth
$696,953 Vol.
No
Howard Lutnick
$34,162 Vol.
No
Linda McMahon
$17,102 Vol.
No
Doug Collins
$13,481 Vol.
No
Russell T. Vought
$12,520 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.President Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, 2026, after expressing frustration with her tenure at the Justice Department, immediately elevating Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche to acting AG and cementing her as the next cabinet departure with 100% trader consensus. This follows Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's ouster last month, highlighting early second-term turnover amid reported internal pressures. The skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds prices near-certainty on Bondi given the official White House announcement, though scenarios like a last-minute reversal, health issue, or procedural delay in resignation processing could theoretically challenge resolution. Traders now watch for Trump's nominee announcement and ensuing Senate confirmation hearings.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$2,875,843End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.President Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, 2026, after expressing frustration with her tenure at the Justice Department, immediately elevating Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche to acting AG and cementing her as the next cabinet departure with 100% trader consensus. This follows Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's ouster last month, highlighting early second-term turnover amid reported internal pressures. The skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds prices near-certainty on Bondi given the official White House announcement, though scenarios like a last-minute reversal, health issue, or procedural delay in resignation processing could theoretically challenge resolution. Traders now watch for Trump's nominee announcement and ensuing Senate confirmation hearings.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$2,875,843End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
President Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, 2026, after expressing frustration with her tenure at the Justice Department, immediately elevating Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche to acting AG and cementing her as the next cabinet departure with 100% trader consensus. This follows Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's ouster last month, highlighting early second-term turnover amid reported internal pressures. The skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds prices near-certainty on Bondi given the official White House announcement, though scenarios like a last-minute reversal, health issue, or procedural delay in resignation processing could theoretically challenge resolution. Traders now watch for Trump's nominee announcement and ensuing Senate confirmation hearings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions