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Politics·Cabinet

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31?

Market icon
Politics·Cabinet

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$73,230 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$73,230 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick retains strong White House support despite bipartisan calls for his resignation in early March over newly released Jeffrey Epstein files revealing a 2012 visit to the financier's island—contradicting Lutnick's prior claims of cutting ties in 2005. No departure announcements, Senate holds, or presidential indications have emerged since, with Lutnick actively engaging in recent activities like a March 27 meeting at the Speaker's office and ongoing Department of Commerce correspondence on trade and AI policy. Traders' 99.3% implied probability on "No" reflects this stability amid the tight March 31 deadline; only an abrupt firing, sudden health event, or fresh scandal could alter the outcome in the remaining days.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick retains strong White House support despite bipartisan calls for his resignation in early March over newly released Jeffrey Epstein files revealing a 2012 visit to the financier's island—contradicting Lutnick's prior claims of cutting ties in 2005. No departure announcements, Senate holds, or presidential indications have emerged since, with Lutnick actively engaging in recent activities like a March 27 meeting at the Speaker's office and ongoing Department of Commerce correspondence on trade and AI policy. Traders' 99.3% implied probability on "No" reflects this stability amid the tight March 31 deadline; only an abrupt firing, sudden health event, or fresh scandal could alter the outcome in the remaining days.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick retains strong White House support despite bipartisan calls for his resignation in early March over newly released Jeffrey Epstein files revealing a 2012 visit to the financier's island—contradicting Lutnick's prior claims of cutting ties in 2005. No departure announcements, Senate holds, or presidential indications have emerged since, with Lutnick actively engaging in recent activities like a March 27 meeting at the Speaker's office and ongoing Department of Commerce correspondence on trade and AI policy. Traders' 99.3% implied probability on "No" reflects this stability amid the tight March 31 deadline; only an abrupt firing, sudden health event, or fresh scandal could alter the outcome in the remaining days.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick retains strong White House support despite bipartisan calls for his resignation in early March over newly released Jeffrey Epstein files revealing a 2012 visit to the financier's island—contradicting Lutnick's prior claims of cutting ties in 2005. No departure announcements, Senate holds, or presidential indications have emerged since, with Lutnick actively engaging in recent activities like a March 27 meeting at the Speaker's office and ongoing Department of Commerce correspondence on trade and AI policy. Traders' 99.3% implied probability on "No" reflects this stability amid the tight March 31 deadline; only an abrupt firing, sudden health event, or fresh scandal could alter the outcome in the remaining days.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 1% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 1¢, the market collectively assigns a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31?" has generated $73.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31?" is 1% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.