President Trump's continued tenure as the 47th president, now over a year into his second term, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus against his removal by June 30, reflecting steep constitutional barriers like impeachment conviction requiring a two-thirds Senate supermajority—unlikely under current Republican control—and 25th Amendment invocation needing Vice President JD Vance plus cabinet majority support. Recent appointee resignations protesting U.S. military actions against Iran (mid-March) and isolated calls for Vance to invoke the 25th Amendment (late March) have sparked speculation, but no procedural advances, health concerns, or resignation signals have emerged in the past 30 days. With 252 executive orders issued through late March and midterms not until November, traders see minimal catalysts for early exit.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,944,979 Vol.
$1,944,979 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$1,944,979 Vol.
$1,944,979 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's continued tenure as the 47th president, now over a year into his second term, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus against his removal by June 30, reflecting steep constitutional barriers like impeachment conviction requiring a two-thirds Senate supermajority—unlikely under current Republican control—and 25th Amendment invocation needing Vice President JD Vance plus cabinet majority support. Recent appointee resignations protesting U.S. military actions against Iran (mid-March) and isolated calls for Vance to invoke the 25th Amendment (late March) have sparked speculation, but no procedural advances, health concerns, or resignation signals have emerged in the past 30 days. With 252 executive orders issued through late March and midterms not until November, traders see minimal catalysts for early exit.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,944,979End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's continued tenure as the 47th president, now over a year into his second term, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus against his removal by June 30, reflecting steep constitutional barriers like impeachment conviction requiring a two-thirds Senate supermajority—unlikely under current Republican control—and 25th Amendment invocation needing Vice President JD Vance plus cabinet majority support. Recent appointee resignations protesting U.S. military actions against Iran (mid-March) and isolated calls for Vance to invoke the 25th Amendment (late March) have sparked speculation, but no procedural advances, health concerns, or resignation signals have emerged in the past 30 days. With 252 executive orders issued through late March and midterms not until November, traders see minimal catalysts for early exit.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,945,032End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's continued tenure as the 47th president, now over a year into his second term, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus against his removal by June 30, reflecting steep constitutional barriers like impeachment conviction requiring a two-thirds Senate supermajority—unlikely under current Republican control—and 25th Amendment invocation needing Vice President JD Vance plus cabinet majority support. Recent appointee resignations protesting U.S. military actions against Iran (mid-March) and isolated calls for Vance to invoke the 25th Amendment (late March) have sparked speculation, but no procedural advances, health concerns, or resignation signals have emerged in the past 30 days. With 252 executive orders issued through late March and midterms not until November, traders see minimal catalysts for early exit.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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