Constitutional limits and repeated court rulings explain why traders assign a 91% probability that President Trump will not nationalize federal elections by the end of 2026. The U.S. Constitution reserves primary authority over election administration to the states and Congress, and multiple federal judges have blocked or vacated 2025 and 2026 executive orders seeking to impose proof-of-citizenship requirements, voter-roll mandates, and mail-ballot restrictions on states. Recent district court decisions have held that these actions exceed presidential power under statutes such as the NVRA and HAVA, with appeals ongoing but no new statutory grant of direct federal control enacted. Legislative efforts tied to measures like the SAVE Act have not produced the required authority for ongoing federal oversight of vote counting or certification across multiple states, and the approaching midterms have not altered this legal landscape.