Recent indirect US-Iran talks in Islamabad over the April 12-13 weekend stalled over uranium enrichment duration, with the US demanding a 20-year moratorium and removal of highly enriched uranium stocks in exchange for sanctions relief, while Iran countered with a five-year suspension and dilution of its roughly 440kg near-weapons-grade stockpile per February IAEA data. Iran's deputy foreign minister stated on April 15 that enrichment levels remain negotiable despite Tehran's insistence on its right to the technology, signaling doctrinal flexibility amid ceasefire pressures expiring April 21 and a US blockade. Traders imply 66.5% odds of a public commitment to end all enrichment by year-end, reflecting optimism for mediated compromise—potentially via Pakistan, Egypt, or Turkey—before the December 31 deadline, though significant gaps persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$64,468 Vol.
$64,468 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$64,468 Vol.
$64,468 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent indirect US-Iran talks in Islamabad over the April 12-13 weekend stalled over uranium enrichment duration, with the US demanding a 20-year moratorium and removal of highly enriched uranium stocks in exchange for sanctions relief, while Iran countered with a five-year suspension and dilution of its roughly 440kg near-weapons-grade stockpile per February IAEA data. Iran's deputy foreign minister stated on April 15 that enrichment levels remain negotiable despite Tehran's insistence on its right to the technology, signaling doctrinal flexibility amid ceasefire pressures expiring April 21 and a US blockade. Traders imply 66.5% odds of a public commitment to end all enrichment by year-end, reflecting optimism for mediated compromise—potentially via Pakistan, Egypt, or Turkey—before the December 31 deadline, though significant gaps persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$64,468End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent indirect US-Iran talks in Islamabad over the April 12-13 weekend stalled over uranium enrichment duration, with the US demanding a 20-year moratorium and removal of highly enriched uranium stocks in exchange for sanctions relief, while Iran countered with a five-year suspension and dilution of its roughly 440kg near-weapons-grade stockpile per February IAEA data. Iran's deputy foreign minister stated on April 15 that enrichment levels remain negotiable despite Tehran's insistence on its right to the technology, signaling doctrinal flexibility amid ceasefire pressures expiring April 21 and a US blockade. Traders imply 66.5% odds of a public commitment to end all enrichment by year-end, reflecting optimism for mediated compromise—potentially via Pakistan, Egypt, or Turkey—before the December 31 deadline, though significant gaps persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,468End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent indirect US-Iran talks in Islamabad over the April 12-13 weekend stalled over uranium enrichment duration, with the US demanding a 20-year moratorium and removal of highly enriched uranium stocks in exchange for sanctions relief, while Iran countered with a five-year suspension and dilution of its roughly 440kg near-weapons-grade stockpile per February IAEA data. Iran's deputy foreign minister stated on April 15 that enrichment levels remain negotiable despite Tehran's insistence on its right to the technology, signaling doctrinal flexibility amid ceasefire pressures expiring April 21 and a US blockade. Traders imply 66.5% odds of a public commitment to end all enrichment by year-end, reflecting optimism for mediated compromise—potentially via Pakistan, Egypt, or Turkey—before the December 31 deadline, though significant gaps persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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