Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, anchored by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) June censure of Tehran for non-compliance and rapid expansion of near-weapons-grade stockpiles exceeding JCPOA limits. Iran responded by installing advanced centrifuges and enriching to 60% purity, rejecting U.S. and European demands amid stalled Vienna talks. Recent escalations—including Iran's April drone-and-missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes—have deepened distrust, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits before the deadline. Ongoing U.S. sanctions and Tehran's insistence on full sanctions relief as a precondition solidify barriers to any near-term deal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$130,770 Vol.
$130,770 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$130,770 Vol.
$130,770 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, anchored by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) June censure of Tehran for non-compliance and rapid expansion of near-weapons-grade stockpiles exceeding JCPOA limits. Iran responded by installing advanced centrifuges and enriching to 60% purity, rejecting U.S. and European demands amid stalled Vienna talks. Recent escalations—including Iran's April drone-and-missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes—have deepened distrust, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits before the deadline. Ongoing U.S. sanctions and Tehran's insistence on full sanctions relief as a precondition solidify barriers to any near-term deal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volume
$130,770End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, anchored by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) June censure of Tehran for non-compliance and rapid expansion of near-weapons-grade stockpiles exceeding JCPOA limits. Iran responded by installing advanced centrifuges and enriching to 60% purity, rejecting U.S. and European demands amid stalled Vienna talks. Recent escalations—including Iran's April drone-and-missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes—have deepened distrust, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits before the deadline. Ongoing U.S. sanctions and Tehran's insistence on full sanctions relief as a precondition solidify barriers to any near-term deal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$130,770End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, anchored by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) June censure of Tehran for non-compliance and rapid expansion of near-weapons-grade stockpiles exceeding JCPOA limits. Iran responded by installing advanced centrifuges and enriching to 60% purity, rejecting U.S. and European demands amid stalled Vienna talks. Recent escalations—including Iran's April drone-and-missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes—have deepened distrust, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits before the deadline. Ongoing U.S. sanctions and Tehran's insistence on full sanctions relief as a precondition solidify barriers to any near-term deal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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