Trader consensus favors Israel conducting military action against exactly two countries in April—primarily Iran and Lebanon—at 65% implied probability, reflecting verified airstrikes in Iran's Kermanshah region on April 2 and ongoing large-scale operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through April 16, including strikes killing four Lebanese medics on April 15 and destroying a key bridge and hospital in Tebnine. A US-Iran ceasefire announced around April 8 explicitly excludes Lebanon, sustaining Israel's campaign there amid de-escalation signals elsewhere, while prior actions in Syria appear limited this month. Probabilities for three countries (24.5%) or more (10.5%) hinge on potential expansions to Yemen or Iraq before month-end, though no major new escalations have materialized in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?
How many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?
2 68%
3 23%
≥4 10%
$105,604 Vol.
$105,604 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2
68%
3
23%
≥4
10%
2 68%
3 23%
≥4 10%
$105,604 Vol.
$105,604 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2
$26,695 Vol.
68%
3
$31,080 Vol.
23%
≥4
$40,363 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Israel conducting military action against exactly two countries in April—primarily Iran and Lebanon—at 65% implied probability, reflecting verified airstrikes in Iran's Kermanshah region on April 2 and ongoing large-scale operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through April 16, including strikes killing four Lebanese medics on April 15 and destroying a key bridge and hospital in Tebnine. A US-Iran ceasefire announced around April 8 explicitly excludes Lebanon, sustaining Israel's campaign there amid de-escalation signals elsewhere, while prior actions in Syria appear limited this month. Probabilities for three countries (24.5%) or more (10.5%) hinge on potential expansions to Yemen or Iraq before month-end, though no major new escalations have materialized in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$105,604End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Israel conducting military action against exactly two countries in April—primarily Iran and Lebanon—at 65% implied probability, reflecting verified airstrikes in Iran's Kermanshah region on April 2 and ongoing large-scale operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through April 16, including strikes killing four Lebanese medics on April 15 and destroying a key bridge and hospital in Tebnine. A US-Iran ceasefire announced around April 8 explicitly excludes Lebanon, sustaining Israel's campaign there amid de-escalation signals elsewhere, while prior actions in Syria appear limited this month. Probabilities for three countries (24.5%) or more (10.5%) hinge on potential expansions to Yemen or Iraq before month-end, though no major new escalations have materialized in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105,604End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Israel conducting military action against exactly two countries in April—primarily Iran and Lebanon—at 65% implied probability, reflecting verified airstrikes in Iran's Kermanshah region on April 2 and ongoing large-scale operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through April 16, including strikes killing four Lebanese medics on April 15 and destroying a key bridge and hospital in Tebnine. A US-Iran ceasefire announced around April 8 explicitly excludes Lebanon, sustaining Israel's campaign there amid de-escalation signals elsewhere, while prior actions in Syria appear limited this month. Probabilities for three countries (24.5%) or more (10.5%) hinge on potential expansions to Yemen or Iraq before month-end, though no major new escalations have materialized in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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