US Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz on April 11—the first such passage since the US-Iran conflict escalated—amid ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, clearing mines and destroying an Iranian drone while signaling resolve to reopen the vital oil chokepoint. President Trump has urged allies including the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China to deploy warships for safe passage, with six European and Asian nations issuing supportive statements in March, though no additional transits have occurred. Iran demands coordination for non-hostile vessels and imposes tolls on select merchant ships, while US forces enforce a partial blockade, turning back six vessels this week. Traders watch ongoing diplomatic talks and potential coalition deployments before the April 30 deadline, as escalation risks or de-escalation signals could prompt further naval actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
$2,513,246 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
France
8%
United Kingdom
7%
Pakistan
5%
Germany
4%
Italy
4%
India
3%
Netherlands
3%
Greece
2%
Japan
1%
Canada
1%
$2,513,246 Vol.
France
$162,555 Vol.
8%
United Kingdom
$325,183 Vol.
7%
Pakistan
$134,180 Vol.
5%
Germany
$86,986 Vol.
4%
Italy
$92,832 Vol.
4%
India
$166,627 Vol.
3%
Netherlands
$187,182 Vol.
3%
Greece
$98,069 Vol.
2%
Japan
$240,445 Vol.
1%
Canada
$92,425 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz on April 11—the first such passage since the US-Iran conflict escalated—amid ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, clearing mines and destroying an Iranian drone while signaling resolve to reopen the vital oil chokepoint. President Trump has urged allies including the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China to deploy warships for safe passage, with six European and Asian nations issuing supportive statements in March, though no additional transits have occurred. Iran demands coordination for non-hostile vessels and imposes tolls on select merchant ships, while US forces enforce a partial blockade, turning back six vessels this week. Traders watch ongoing diplomatic talks and potential coalition deployments before the April 30 deadline, as escalation risks or de-escalation signals could prompt further naval actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
Volume
$2,513,246End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz on April 11—the first such passage since the US-Iran conflict escalated—amid ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, clearing mines and destroying an Iranian drone while signaling resolve to reopen the vital oil chokepoint. President Trump has urged allies including the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China to deploy warships for safe passage, with six European and Asian nations issuing supportive statements in March, though no additional transits have occurred. Iran demands coordination for non-hostile vessels and imposes tolls on select merchant ships, while US forces enforce a partial blockade, turning back six vessels this week. Traders watch ongoing diplomatic talks and potential coalition deployments before the April 30 deadline, as escalation risks or de-escalation signals could prompt further naval actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$2,513,246End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz on April 11—the first such passage since the US-Iran conflict escalated—amid ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, clearing mines and destroying an Iranian drone while signaling resolve to reopen the vital oil chokepoint. President Trump has urged allies including the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China to deploy warships for safe passage, with six European and Asian nations issuing supportive statements in March, though no additional transits have occurred. Iran demands coordination for non-hostile vessels and imposes tolls on select merchant ships, while US forces enforce a partial blockade, turning back six vessels this week. Traders watch ongoing diplomatic talks and potential coalition deployments before the April 30 deadline, as escalation risks or de-escalation signals could prompt further naval actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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