Iran's IRGC imposed a selective passage regime in the Strait of Hormuz after closing it amid the US-Iran war on March 19, 2026, allowing only approved merchant ships—primarily from China, India, Pakistan, and Turkiye—while blocking US-allied vessels. A tolled northern corridor opened March 27 has enabled trickle transits of a few commercial ships daily, but no foreign warships have confirmed passage through the narrow waterway despite US attempts with USS Boxer, Tripoli, and Abraham Lincoln groups, which faced IRGC harassment and retreated. India launched Operation Urja Suraksha this week, deploying five warships to escort stranded cargo in adjacent waters. Six nations—UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan—issued a joint readiness statement for securing navigation, as France plans postwar escorts. Iran's response today to a US peace proposal and potential NATO ally deployments could shift dynamics before April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
United States
56%
United Kingdom
9%
France
8%
Pakistan
7%
Greece
4%
India
4%
Japan
4%
Italy
4%
Canada
3%
Netherlands
2%
Germany
2%
$2,702 Vol.
United States
$40 Vol.
56%
United Kingdom
$406 Vol.
9%
France
$420 Vol.
8%
Pakistan
$212 Vol.
7%
Greece
$125 Vol.
4%
India
$360 Vol.
4%
Japan
$142 Vol.
4%
Italy
$223 Vol.
4%
Canada
$173 Vol.
3%
Netherlands
$178 Vol.
2%
Germany
$423 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Iran's IRGC imposed a selective passage regime in the Strait of Hormuz after closing it amid the US-Iran war on March 19, 2026, allowing only approved merchant ships—primarily from China, India, Pakistan, and Turkiye—while blocking US-allied vessels. A tolled northern corridor opened March 27 has enabled trickle transits of a few commercial ships daily, but no foreign warships have confirmed passage through the narrow waterway despite US attempts with USS Boxer, Tripoli, and Abraham Lincoln groups, which faced IRGC harassment and retreated. India launched Operation Urja Suraksha this week, deploying five warships to escort stranded cargo in adjacent waters. Six nations—UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan—issued a joint readiness statement for securing navigation, as France plans postwar escorts. Iran's response today to a US peace proposal and potential NATO ally deployments could shift dynamics before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
Volume
$2,702End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Iran's IRGC imposed a selective passage regime in the Strait of Hormuz after closing it amid the US-Iran war on March 19, 2026, allowing only approved merchant ships—primarily from China, India, Pakistan, and Turkiye—while blocking US-allied vessels. A tolled northern corridor opened March 27 has enabled trickle transits of a few commercial ships daily, but no foreign warships have confirmed passage through the narrow waterway despite US attempts with USS Boxer, Tripoli, and Abraham Lincoln groups, which faced IRGC harassment and retreated. India launched Operation Urja Suraksha this week, deploying five warships to escort stranded cargo in adjacent waters. Six nations—UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan—issued a joint readiness statement for securing navigation, as France plans postwar escorts. Iran's response today to a US peace proposal and potential NATO ally deployments could shift dynamics before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$2,702End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's IRGC imposed a selective passage regime in the Strait of Hormuz after closing it amid the US-Iran war on March 19, 2026, allowing only approved merchant ships—primarily from China, India, Pakistan, and Turkiye—while blocking US-allied vessels. A tolled northern corridor opened March 27 has enabled trickle transits of a few commercial ships daily, but no foreign warships have confirmed passage through the narrow waterway despite US attempts with USS Boxer, Tripoli, and Abraham Lincoln groups, which faced IRGC harassment and retreated. India launched Operation Urja Suraksha this week, deploying five warships to escort stranded cargo in adjacent waters. Six nations—UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan—issued a joint readiness statement for securing navigation, as France plans postwar escorts. Iran's response today to a US peace proposal and potential NATO ally deployments could shift dynamics before April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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