Ongoing Russian military offensives in Donbas, including recent advances near Pokrovsk and record drone-missile barrages on Ukrainian cities last week, underscore the absence of de-escalation, driving trader consensus to 99.7% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026. No substantive peace talks have resumed since stalled Istanbul negotiations in 2022, with Moscow demanding recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas, while Kyiv insists on full withdrawal backed by sustained Western sanctions and arms aid. Entrenched positions, mutual escalations, and fatigue in aid flows reflect the wisdom of crowds in pricing near-certainty of continuation. Only seismic shifts—such as a U.S.-brokered summit under new leadership, Russian economic collapse, or Ukrainian territorial breakthroughs—could pivot odds, though none appear imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$28,599,936 Vol.
$28,599,936 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$28,599,936 Vol.
$28,599,936 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian military offensives in Donbas, including recent advances near Pokrovsk and record drone-missile barrages on Ukrainian cities last week, underscore the absence of de-escalation, driving trader consensus to 99.7% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026. No substantive peace talks have resumed since stalled Istanbul negotiations in 2022, with Moscow demanding recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas, while Kyiv insists on full withdrawal backed by sustained Western sanctions and arms aid. Entrenched positions, mutual escalations, and fatigue in aid flows reflect the wisdom of crowds in pricing near-certainty of continuation. Only seismic shifts—such as a U.S.-brokered summit under new leadership, Russian economic collapse, or Ukrainian territorial breakthroughs—could pivot odds, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$28,599,936End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian military offensives in Donbas, including recent advances near Pokrovsk and record drone-missile barrages on Ukrainian cities last week, underscore the absence of de-escalation, driving trader consensus to 99.7% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026. No substantive peace talks have resumed since stalled Istanbul negotiations in 2022, with Moscow demanding recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas, while Kyiv insists on full withdrawal backed by sustained Western sanctions and arms aid. Entrenched positions, mutual escalations, and fatigue in aid flows reflect the wisdom of crowds in pricing near-certainty of continuation. Only seismic shifts—such as a U.S.-brokered summit under new leadership, Russian economic collapse, or Ukrainian territorial breakthroughs—could pivot odds, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$28,599,936End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Ongoing Russian military offensives in Donbas, including recent advances near Pokrovsk and record drone-missile barrages on Ukrainian cities last week, underscore the absence of de-escalation, driving trader consensus to 99.7% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026. No substantive peace talks have resumed since stalled Istanbul negotiations in 2022, with Moscow demanding recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas, while Kyiv insists on full withdrawal backed by sustained Western sanctions and arms aid. Entrenched positions, mutual escalations, and fatigue in aid flows reflect the wisdom of crowds in pricing near-certainty of continuation. Only seismic shifts—such as a U.S.-brokered summit under new leadership, Russian economic collapse, or Ukrainian territorial breakthroughs—could pivot odds, though none appear imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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