Traders' near-certain consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026, stems from stalled diplomatic efforts and intensified military actions, including Russia's recent advances near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar in Donetsk amid massive drone and missile barrages last week. President Putin rejected Ukraine's November proposal for a 30-day truce, insisting on recognition of annexed territories, while President Zelenskyy demands full Russian withdrawal and security guarantees—positions unchanged despite U.S. election shifts. No active negotiations or mediation breakthroughs have emerged in the past month, with ongoing escalations like North Korean troop involvement reinforcing battlefield stalemate. Realistic shifts could arise from post-inauguration U.S. policy pivots, leadership changes, or surprise UN-mediated talks, though historical patterns favor prolonged conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$28,735,170 Vol.
$28,735,170 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$28,735,170 Vol.
$28,735,170 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Traders' near-certain consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026, stems from stalled diplomatic efforts and intensified military actions, including Russia's recent advances near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar in Donetsk amid massive drone and missile barrages last week. President Putin rejected Ukraine's November proposal for a 30-day truce, insisting on recognition of annexed territories, while President Zelenskyy demands full Russian withdrawal and security guarantees—positions unchanged despite U.S. election shifts. No active negotiations or mediation breakthroughs have emerged in the past month, with ongoing escalations like North Korean troop involvement reinforcing battlefield stalemate. Realistic shifts could arise from post-inauguration U.S. policy pivots, leadership changes, or surprise UN-mediated talks, though historical patterns favor prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$28,735,170End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Traders' near-certain consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026, stems from stalled diplomatic efforts and intensified military actions, including Russia's recent advances near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar in Donetsk amid massive drone and missile barrages last week. President Putin rejected Ukraine's November proposal for a 30-day truce, insisting on recognition of annexed territories, while President Zelenskyy demands full Russian withdrawal and security guarantees—positions unchanged despite U.S. election shifts. No active negotiations or mediation breakthroughs have emerged in the past month, with ongoing escalations like North Korean troop involvement reinforcing battlefield stalemate. Realistic shifts could arise from post-inauguration U.S. policy pivots, leadership changes, or surprise UN-mediated talks, though historical patterns favor prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$28,735,170End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Traders' near-certain consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026, stems from stalled diplomatic efforts and intensified military actions, including Russia's recent advances near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar in Donetsk amid massive drone and missile barrages last week. President Putin rejected Ukraine's November proposal for a 30-day truce, insisting on recognition of annexed territories, while President Zelenskyy demands full Russian withdrawal and security guarantees—positions unchanged despite U.S. election shifts. No active negotiations or mediation breakthroughs have emerged in the past month, with ongoing escalations like North Korean troop involvement reinforcing battlefield stalemate. Realistic shifts could arise from post-inauguration U.S. policy pivots, leadership changes, or surprise UN-mediated talks, though historical patterns favor prolonged conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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