Trader consensus favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by entrenched military stalemate and irreconcilable demands. Russian forces have made incremental advances in Donetsk, capturing Vuhledar in early October 2024 and pressing toward Pokrovsk, while Ukraine holds a shrinking foothold in Russia's Kursk region amid counteroffensives. President Putin reiterated demands for NATO expansion curbs, "denazification," and recognition of annexed territories in recent statements, rejecting Zelenskyy's unconditional 30-day pause proposal. Despite President-elect Trump's pledges for swift resolution post-November 5 election, historical Minsk accords failures and lack of scheduled talks underscore barriers, with ongoing Western arms support bolstering Kyiv's resistance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$12,208,326 Vol.
$12,208,326 Vol.
$12,208,326 Vol.
$12,208,326 Vol.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by entrenched military stalemate and irreconcilable demands. Russian forces have made incremental advances in Donetsk, capturing Vuhledar in early October 2024 and pressing toward Pokrovsk, while Ukraine holds a shrinking foothold in Russia's Kursk region amid counteroffensives. President Putin reiterated demands for NATO expansion curbs, "denazification," and recognition of annexed territories in recent statements, rejecting Zelenskyy's unconditional 30-day pause proposal. Despite President-elect Trump's pledges for swift resolution post-November 5 election, historical Minsk accords failures and lack of scheduled talks underscore barriers, with ongoing Western arms support bolstering Kyiv's resistance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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