Putin began a new six-year term in 2024 that runs until 2030, creating a structural barrier to any near-term exit absent resignation, health events, or removal. Recent September 2026 parliamentary elections delivered United Russia its largest Duma majority yet, which the Kremlin framed as endorsement of its Ukraine policy and leadership continuity. In October, Putin met U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, agreed in principle to resume trilateral talks after November 10 focused on post-conflict security guarantees, and held calls with European leaders reiterating demands on NATO and territorial realities. No verified reports indicate declining health, elite fractures, or organized succession planning. These factors underpin trader consensus that departure by year-end remains improbable, with any shift likely requiring major unforeseen domestic or diplomatic disruption within the resolution window.