Skip to main content
icon for Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitics·Putin

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

icon for Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitics·Putin

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

12% chance
Polymarket

$4,270,274 Vol.

12% chance
Polymarket

$4,270,274 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Vladimir Putin’s legal eligibility to serve additional terms through 2036, established by 2020 constitutional amendments, combined with the absence of any designated successor and consolidated control over security structures and elites, underpins the 88.5% trader-implied probability against his departure by December 31, 2026. In recent months he has continued active governance, including outlining national priorities for 2026, conducting a May 2026 state visit to China focused on energy cooperation, and addressing domestic economic forums, with no public signals of transition or incapacity. Periodic health speculation has not disrupted scheduled appearances or altered power structures, while management of the Ukraine conflict reflects ongoing continuity rather than preparation for leadership change. Any shift would require unforeseen events such as sudden incapacity or elite realignment, scenarios traders currently assess as low-probability within the short timeframe.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,270,274
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2025, 6:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Vladimir Putin’s legal eligibility to serve additional terms through 2036, established by 2020 constitutional amendments, combined with the absence of any designated successor and consolidated control over security structures and elites, underpins the 88.5% trader-implied probability against his departure by December 31, 2026. In recent months he has continued active governance, including outlining national priorities for 2026, conducting a May 2026 state visit to China focused on energy cooperation, and addressing domestic economic forums, with no public signals of transition or incapacity. Periodic health speculation has not disrupted scheduled appearances or altered power structures, while management of the Ukraine conflict reflects ongoing continuity rather than preparation for leadership change. Any shift would require unforeseen events such as sudden incapacity or elite realignment, scenarios traders currently assess as low-probability within the short timeframe.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,270,274
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2025, 6:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

1%
icon for Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

16%
icon for Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

3%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 12% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 12¢, the market collectively assigns a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?" has generated $4.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?" is 12% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.