Putin’s consolidated authority over Russia’s security services, military command, and political institutions continues to underpin the low probability of a coup attempt through the end of 2026. Heightened Kremlin security measures implemented in May 2026, including expanded surveillance and restrictions on staff, responded to targeted assassinations of military figures and concerns over figures such as Sergei Shoigu, yet produced no verified plots or elite defections. Putin’s public schedule, including appearances at the June St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, and sustained domestic positioning signal regime stability amid ongoing pressures from the Ukraine conflict. Traders assign only single-digit odds to an attempt because these structural controls and the absence of coordinated internal challenges outweigh periodic unverified rumors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$41,069 Vol.
$41,069 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$41,069 Vol.
$41,069 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s consolidated authority over Russia’s security services, military command, and political institutions continues to underpin the low probability of a coup attempt through the end of 2026. Heightened Kremlin security measures implemented in May 2026, including expanded surveillance and restrictions on staff, responded to targeted assassinations of military figures and concerns over figures such as Sergei Shoigu, yet produced no verified plots or elite defections. Putin’s public schedule, including appearances at the June St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, and sustained domestic positioning signal regime stability amid ongoing pressures from the Ukraine conflict. Traders assign only single-digit odds to an attempt because these structural controls and the absence of coordinated internal challenges outweigh periodic unverified rumors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$41,069End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s consolidated authority over Russia’s security services, military command, and political institutions continues to underpin the low probability of a coup attempt through the end of 2026. Heightened Kremlin security measures implemented in May 2026, including expanded surveillance and restrictions on staff, responded to targeted assassinations of military figures and concerns over figures such as Sergei Shoigu, yet produced no verified plots or elite defections. Putin’s public schedule, including appearances at the June St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, and sustained domestic positioning signal regime stability amid ongoing pressures from the Ukraine conflict. Traders assign only single-digit odds to an attempt because these structural controls and the absence of coordinated internal challenges outweigh periodic unverified rumors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$41,069End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin’s consolidated authority over Russia’s security services, military command, and political institutions continues to underpin the low probability of a coup attempt through the end of 2026. Heightened Kremlin security measures implemented in May 2026, including expanded surveillance and restrictions on staff, responded to targeted assassinations of military figures and concerns over figures such as Sergei Shoigu, yet produced no verified plots or elite defections. Putin’s public schedule, including appearances at the June St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, and sustained domestic positioning signal regime stability amid ongoing pressures from the Ukraine conflict. Traders assign only single-digit odds to an attempt because these structural controls and the absence of coordinated internal challenges outweigh periodic unverified rumors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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