Trader consensus reflects an 83% implied probability against Ukraine passing a peace referendum before 2027, anchored by the ongoing military stalemate and collapsed ceasefire efforts that preclude any vote. President Zelenskyy has conditioned referendums on territorial concessions or peace deals to a prior ceasefire, as reiterated in February 2026 interviews, but Geneva talks ended abruptly that month over unresolved demands like Russia's insistence on permanent gains in Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine's electoral commission defied US pressure in March by ruling out 2026 elections or referendums until six months post-ceasefire, amid stalled negotiations and persistent hostilities. Polls show divided public support, with no draft agreement or vote scheduled despite prior planning signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUkraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
$10,453 Vol.
$10,453 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,453 Vol.
$10,453 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 83% implied probability against Ukraine passing a peace referendum before 2027, anchored by the ongoing military stalemate and collapsed ceasefire efforts that preclude any vote. President Zelenskyy has conditioned referendums on territorial concessions or peace deals to a prior ceasefire, as reiterated in February 2026 interviews, but Geneva talks ended abruptly that month over unresolved demands like Russia's insistence on permanent gains in Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine's electoral commission defied US pressure in March by ruling out 2026 elections or referendums until six months post-ceasefire, amid stalled negotiations and persistent hostilities. Polls show divided public support, with no draft agreement or vote scheduled despite prior planning signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$10,453End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 83% implied probability against Ukraine passing a peace referendum before 2027, anchored by the ongoing military stalemate and collapsed ceasefire efforts that preclude any vote. President Zelenskyy has conditioned referendums on territorial concessions or peace deals to a prior ceasefire, as reiterated in February 2026 interviews, but Geneva talks ended abruptly that month over unresolved demands like Russia's insistence on permanent gains in Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine's electoral commission defied US pressure in March by ruling out 2026 elections or referendums until six months post-ceasefire, amid stalled negotiations and persistent hostilities. Polls show divided public support, with no draft agreement or vote scheduled despite prior planning signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,453End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 83% implied probability against Ukraine passing a peace referendum before 2027, anchored by the ongoing military stalemate and collapsed ceasefire efforts that preclude any vote. President Zelenskyy has conditioned referendums on territorial concessions or peace deals to a prior ceasefire, as reiterated in February 2026 interviews, but Geneva talks ended abruptly that month over unresolved demands like Russia's insistence on permanent gains in Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine's electoral commission defied US pressure in March by ruling out 2026 elections or referendums until six months post-ceasefire, amid stalled negotiations and persistent hostilities. Polls show divided public support, with no draft agreement or vote scheduled despite prior planning signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions