Ukraine's constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by President Zelenskyy as essential for long-term security amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, drives trader consensus against any formal agreement to forgo accession before 2027. Recent US statements, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio's early October remarks that membership is "not on the table" while prioritizing an end to hostilities, alongside NATO's military committee visit to Kyiv, underscore stalled accession talks without altering Kyiv's stance. Diplomatic efforts center on potential trilateral meetings and ceasefires rather than neutrality pledges. High implied probability on "No" reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of verifiable concessions. Shifts remain possible through major peace breakthroughs, altered US policy priorities, or new security guarantees that prompt Ukrainian reconsideration within the timeframe.