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Geopolitics·Trump

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Trump

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

$222,167 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

$222,167 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$18,833 Vol.

2%

June 30

$57,992 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid intensified US-brokered peace negotiations with Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signaled openness to a nationwide referendum on any agreement—potentially alongside presidential elections—but only after a ceasefire and security guarantees, with no scheduling date confirmed as of late March 2026. Recent Reuters reporting on March 25 revealed US offers hinge on Kyiv ceding Donbas, while a mid-March KIIS poll found 61% public support for a deal involving territorial compromises, EU accession by 2027, and reconstruction aid. Geneva talks paused in mid-February but Kyiv anticipates a resumption, amid NGO concerns over referendum legality under martial law. Trader consensus reflects stalled diplomacy and Zelenskyy's conditions as key hurdles.

Amid intensified US-brokered peace negotiations with Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signaled openness to a nationwide referendum on any agreement—potentially alongside presidential elections—but only after a ceasefire and security guarantees, with no scheduling date confirmed as of late March 2026. Recent Reuters reporting on March 25 revealed US offers hinge on Kyiv ceding Donbas, while a mid-March KIIS poll found 61% public support for a deal involving territorial compromises, EU accession by 2027, and reconstruction aid. Geneva talks paused in mid-February but Kyiv anticipates a resumption, amid NGO concerns over referendum legality under martial law. Trader consensus reflects stalled diplomacy and Zelenskyy's conditions as key hurdles.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid intensified US-brokered peace negotiations with Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signaled openness to a nationwide referendum on any agreement—potentially alongside presidential elections—but only after a ceasefire and security guarantees, with no scheduling date confirmed as of late March 2026. Recent Reuters reporting on March 25 revealed US offers hinge on Kyiv ceding Donbas, while a mid-March KIIS poll found 61% public support for a deal involving territorial compromises, EU accession by 2027, and reconstruction aid. Geneva talks paused in mid-February but Kyiv anticipates a resumption, amid NGO concerns over referendum legality under martial law. Trader consensus reflects stalled diplomacy and Zelenskyy's conditions as key hurdles.

Amid intensified US-brokered peace negotiations with Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signaled openness to a nationwide referendum on any agreement—potentially alongside presidential elections—but only after a ceasefire and security guarantees, with no scheduling date confirmed as of late March 2026. Recent Reuters reporting on March 25 revealed US offers hinge on Kyiv ceding Donbas, while a mid-March KIIS poll found 61% public support for a deal involving territorial compromises, EU accession by 2027, and reconstruction aid. Geneva talks paused in mid-February but Kyiv anticipates a resumption, amid NGO concerns over referendum legality under martial law. Trader consensus reflects stalled diplomacy and Zelenskyy's conditions as key hurdles.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 10%, followed by "March 31" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?" has generated $222.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 26, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?" is "June 30" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.