Ukraine’s constitutional ban on holding presidential or parliamentary elections during martial law, extended through at least 31 October 2026, remains the dominant constraint on any vote. President Zelenskyy has stated readiness to proceed within 60–90 days only if Western partners provide explicit security guarantees against Russian strikes, while a Verkhovna Rada working group has concluded that credible balloting requires a ceasefire plus at least six months of preparation. Recent KIIS polling shows 71 percent of Ukrainians oppose wartime elections, and hypothetical first-round surveys place Zelenskyy and Valerii Zaluzhnyi as the leading candidates. These legal, security, and public-opinion factors continue to shape trader expectations around resolution timing.