Ukraine’s presidential election remains blocked by martial law, extended through at least 31 October 2026, under laws that prohibit national votes during active conflict. Parliament has formed working groups to draft post-war election rules, now 60–70% complete, but consensus holds that the first ballot requires martial law’s end plus months of preparation for voter rolls, displaced citizens, and security. In mid-October 2026, President Zelenskyy tied any vote to a 60-day Russian ceasefire, a condition Moscow has not accepted. Public polls show roughly 70% of Ukrainians oppose wartime elections, while logistical damage to polling infrastructure and millions of refugees add further barriers. Traders therefore assign low probability to an election being held by year-end absent rapid diplomatic or military shifts.