Ukraine's constitution and martial law statutes prohibit presidential and parliamentary elections while the nationwide state of emergency remains in effect, a restriction extended by parliament for the 19th time through August 2, 2026. President Zelenskyy has consistently tied any vote to the prior establishment of a stable ceasefire plus security guarantees, citing the need for at least 60–90 days of secure conditions to organize campaigning and allow displaced voters and military personnel to participate. External pressure, including a U.S. deadline of May 15, 2026, for balloting passed without action. Early 2026 legislative discussions explored compressed wartime procedures, yet no enabling law has advanced amid low public support for voting before hostilities end. Any resolution therefore hinges on lifting martial law, which itself requires a verifiable reduction in the security threat.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUkraine’s Zelenskyy says progress in US-led peace talks is ‘quite solid’ but elections remain postponed
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%2%
Zelenskyy reported solid progress in peace talks with the US, incorporating many Ukrainian demands. However, elections remain postponed indefinitely due to martial law and ongoing conflict, with no official election date set within 2025, reinforcing market expectations against elections in that year.
Zelenskyy meets with European leaders in London to discuss US peace plan and Ukrainian security
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%2%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with British, French, and German leaders to strengthen European support amid critical US-led peace talks. The discussions underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts but also highlighted unresolved issues, including the timing of elections, which remain postponed due to the war.
Zelenskyy signals uncertainty about running post-war, affecting election outlook
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%12%
On May 15, 2026, statements from President Zelenskyy about his readiness not to run again after the war's conclusion introduced uncertainty about the post-war election landscape. This contributed to market volatility and a temporary price increase before settling lower, reflecting doubts about election timing and candidates.
Russian missile attack kills 24 in Kyiv apartment building amid ongoing war
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%2%
A deadly Russian missile strike on a Kyiv apartment building highlighted the ongoing conflict and instability in Ukraine, reinforcing the unlikelihood of national elections being held in 2025 due to the war's persistence and impact on civilian life.
Former Ukrainian army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%3%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former army chief and potential political rival, publicly disclosed tensions with Zelenskyy, highlighting political instability. This diminished confidence in the likelihood of elections being held in 2025, reflected in market price movements.
Ukraine endures bitter winter after Russian attacks as peace efforts overshadowed
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
Severe Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grid during a harsh winter deepen humanitarian crises and highlight ongoing war conditions, reinforcing the indefinite postponement of elections and reducing market confidence in elections occurring in 2025.
Orbán steps back after a landslide loss, vowing to rebuild Hungary’s ‘national side’
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
Following a significant election loss in Hungary, Orbán announced he would not take his parliamentary seat, reflecting political shifts in the region but no Ukrainian election developments, sustaining market uncertainty about Ukraine’s 2025 elections.
Martial law extended again until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 6%8%
Ukraine's parliament extended martial law for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally preventing any national elections from being held before that date and reinforcing market expectations against 2026 elections.
US-led peace efforts continue amid stalled Ukraine-Russia negotiations
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%4%
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and peace proposals involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US, no breakthrough was achieved to enable elections in 2025, maintaining market skepticism and low prices for election outcomes.
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law and mobilization until August 2, 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%7%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days until August 2, 2026, further solidifying the legal prohibition on holding national elections during this period and diminishing the likelihood of elections within the market's timeframe.
Ukrainian Orthodox Patriarch Filaret dies at 97
The death of a prominent religious leader who symbolized Ukrainian independence added a somber note to the national mood, further eroding market optimism about a stable election environment.
Martial law extended in Ukraine until August 2, 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%8%
Martial law in Ukraine was extended for the 19th time until August 2, 2026, legally prohibiting national elections during this period. This extension was a critical barrier to holding elections within the market's resolution window, causing a sharp drop in election probability prices.
Hungary suspends diesel shipments to Ukraine over pipeline dispute
Hungary halted diesel deliveries after Russian attacks on the Druzhba pipeline, heightening energy insecurity for Ukraine and prompting an 11‑point market plunge as election feasibility seemed further compromised.
Zelenskyy announces postponement of 2025 election timetable amid ongoing war
Facing continued military pressure and no ratified security guarantees, Zelenskyy publicly stated that the 2025 national elections would be delayed, confirming market expectations of a ‘No’ outcome and pushing prices to their lowest points.
European and Canadian leaders discuss U.S.-led peace efforts in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
European and Canadian leaders held talks on U.S.-led peace efforts, reaffirming support for Ukraine’s sovereignty but with no elections scheduled in 2025, sustaining market doubts about election timing.
Ukraine’s political crisis deepens amid war and corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 drops to 8%11%
The political crisis in Ukraine intensified with protests and calls for a coalition government, undermining the stability needed to hold national elections in 2025. The market reacted with a further decline in the probability of elections occurring within the specified timeframe.
Hungary election removes Ukraine's staunchest EU foe, easing Kyiv's funding prospects
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%7%
Hungary's parliamentary election resulted in the defeat of Viktor Orban, a critic of EU sanctions on Russia and Ukraine's harshest EU foe. This outcome was welcomed by Ukraine as it paved the way for a crucial 90 billion euro loan to fund the war, indirectly affecting Ukraine's political and security environment but not enabling elections within 2025-26.
Hungary sets April 12 election date as Orbán faces tough challenge
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Hungary scheduled its parliamentary election for April 12, 2026, indicating regional political activity but no Ukrainian election scheduling, maintaining market doubts about Ukraine’s 2025 elections.
Russian drone attacks severely damage Ukraine’s power grid during winter
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%6%
Russia’s intensified drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure caused widespread blackouts and hardship, underscoring the ongoing conflict and reducing likelihood of elections in 2025, reflected in market price drops.
Ukraine’s political pressure mounts amid corruption scandal and war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
President Zelenskyy faced growing political pressure from a corruption scandal and the ongoing war, complicating his ability to push through peace deals or organize elections. The unstable political environment further reduced the likelihood of elections being held in 2025.
U.S. officials say peace talks unlikely to conclude before summer
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
A senior U.S. diplomat stated that the Abu Dhabi negotiations were not expected to produce a deal before the summer, dampening hopes for an election timetable and driving prices lower.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Ukraine’s allies outlined security guarantees as part of a peace plan, indicating progress in diplomacy but no immediate resolution to the war or election scheduling. The ongoing conflict and lack of election scheduling maintain market skepticism about elections in 2025.
US military delegation arrives in Kyiv amid Ukraine political crisis
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%5%
A high-level US military delegation arrived in Kyiv to revive peace efforts while Ukraine faced a $100 million corruption scandal weakening President Zelenskyy's government. The ongoing war and political turmoil reduced confidence in holding national elections in 2025, impacting the market's outlook on election occurrence.
Ukrainian officials report renewed Russian attacks on power grid
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%8%
Escalation of Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure raised doubts about a near‑term ceasefire, further lowering expectations for elections.
Market hits low as prospects for 2025 elections fade
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
With no official steps taken toward organizing elections and the war continuing, the market reached its lowest point, reflecting the consensus that elections would not be held in 2025.
Ukrainian parliament passes anti‑corruption reforms amid scandal
Legislators approved measures to address a $100 million corruption scandal, temporarily boosting confidence that governance could stabilize enough for elections, reflected in a modest price rise.
Ukrainian parliament rejects early election bill
June 30, 2026 drops to 1%7%
The Verkhovna Rada voted down a proposal to move the election date forward, confirming that no legislative path exists for a 2025 election and pushing market prices lower.
Ukraine’s president faces growing political pressure amid war
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
Report on mounting internal crises and corruption scandals around President Zelensky reduced confidence that elections would be scheduled, pulling prices down further.
Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid ongoing war and peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Zelenskyy appointed Ukraine’s head of military intelligence as his new chief of staff, signaling a focus on security and peace negotiations but no indication of elections being held in 2025.
Zelenskyy open to demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%4%
Zelenskyy expressed openness to a demilitarized zone, a significant concession in peace talks, but the focus remained on security guarantees rather than immediate elections.
Ukraine’s battered power grid faces unprecedented challenge amid ongoing war
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%4%
Continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during winter exacerbate humanitarian crises and underscore the ongoing conflict, reinforcing the indefinite postponement of elections under martial law and dampening market expectations for elections in 2025.
Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid government reshuffle
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%9%
President Zelenskyy appointed Ukraine’s military intelligence head as his new chief of staff to focus on security and peace talks, reflecting ongoing war challenges and political instability that dampen prospects for timely elections.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to discuss postwar election law
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%3%
President Zelenskyy expressed willingness to discuss legislation changes related to mobilization and elections after the war, indicating elections are deferred until after hostilities cease, which further reduced market confidence in 2025 elections.
Ukraine’s political instability and war conditions reduce election likelihood
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%4%
Continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and ongoing war conditions, combined with political challenges including corruption scandals, kept the probability of elections within 2025 and mid-2026 low, reflected in market prices dropping to single digits.
Zelenskyy faces growing pressure amid corruption scandal and war fatigue
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Reports of a $100 million corruption scandal and ongoing war fatigue further complicated the political landscape for Zelenskyy, making the prospect of elections even more remote.
Analysis of Ukraine peace talks shows stalled progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%11%
A detailed report highlighted that negotiations were making little headway, dampening hopes for a quick settlement and reducing the perceived likelihood of elections in 2025‑26.
Ukrainian delegation arrives in US for peace talks amid Russian attacks on energy sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
The Ukrainian delegation's arrival for peace talks highlights ongoing conflict and instability, with Russian attacks continuing to damage infrastructure. The war's persistence and martial law maintain the indefinite postponement of elections, lowering market confidence in elections occurring in 2025.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy pursues more arms deals with allies against Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%4%
Zelenskyy’s efforts to secure more arms amid ongoing Russian attacks and no election scheduling reinforced market skepticism about elections occurring in 2025.
Martial law in Ukraine indefinitely postpones elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Due to the ongoing war and martial law, Ukraine indefinitely postponed presidential and parliamentary elections originally scheduled for spring 2024. This official postponement and the continuation of martial law strongly indicated that elections would not be held in 2025, impacting market expectations.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law, pledges postwar vote
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
The Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the war concludes, signaling official commitment to postponement and impacting market prices downward.
Ukraine announces proposed peace plan including post-agreement elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%7%
Ukraine’s draft peace proposal includes holding elections after signing the agreement, but ongoing conflict and unresolved issues kept elections from being scheduled within 2025.
Zelenskyy's hold on power remains firm under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%7%
Reports emphasized that Russia's invasion triggered martial law, indefinitely postponing elections, and that Zelenskyy is unlikely to be unseated while the war continues.
Zelenskyy delays election announcement amid war and martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%5%
Despite earlier plans, President Zelenskyy did not announce elections or a referendum on the war anniversary, citing martial law and security concerns, reinforcing market expectations that elections would not occur in 2025 or early 2026.
Market sentiment drops as peace talks stall over territorial disputes
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
As details of the peace negotiations emerged, it became clear that Russia and Ukraine remained deeply divided over territorial issues, leading to a decline in the market's 'Yes' probability.
Reports indicate Ukraine presidential election in fall 2026, parliamentary in spring 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%12%
Media reported that Ukrainian party leaders expect presidential elections in fall 2026 and parliamentary elections in spring 2027, effectively ruling out elections within the 2025 window and lowering market probabilities.
Reports suggest Ukrainian presidential election may be held in fall 2026, parliamentary in spring 2027
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%4%
Media reports citing Ukrainian parliamentary sources indicated that the presidential election might be scheduled for fall 2026 and parliamentary elections for spring 2027, signaling official postponement beyond the market's 2026 resolution dates and causing price declines.
Media reports say Ukraine plans presidential election in fall 2026, parliamentary in spring 2027
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
Reports from Ukrainian parliamentary sources indicated that presidential elections are expected in fall 2026 and parliamentary elections in spring 2027, confirming no elections in 2025 and reinforcing market moves toward lower probabilities for 2025 elections.
Trump administration's 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan presented to Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
The Trump administration presented a peace plan requiring Ukraine to hold elections after the war, but with significant concessions and no election scheduled within 2025, the market reacted with uncertainty about elections occurring in 2025.
Zelenskyy outlines 20-point peace plan including postwar elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%5%
Zelenskyy described a peace plan negotiated with the U.S. that includes holding elections after signing the agreement, but no elections were scheduled within 2025, maintaining market uncertainty about election timing.
Zelenskyy says US security agreement for Ukraine is '100% ready' to be signed
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%4%
President Zelenskyy announced a US security guarantees document is ready for signing after talks involving Ukraine, US, and Russia, but no election scheduling was confirmed, maintaining market uncertainty about 2025 elections.
U.S. Congress stalls passage of Ukraine security guarantees
Congressional debate over the security‑guarantee package stalled, leaving the document unsigned and further eroding expectations that elections could be scheduled for 2025.
Russian missile and drone barrage hits Ukrainian energy infrastructure
A massive Russian strike on energy facilities underscored the war’s intensity, weakening expectations that Ukraine could organize elections, and contributed to a 8‑point price drop the next day.
Trump administration presents 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan including elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
The Trump administration presented a 28-point peace plan to Ukraine, which included a requirement for Ukraine to hold elections within 100 days after signing the agreement. However, the plan was controversial and seen as favoring Russia, and no elections were scheduled within 2025, maintaining uncertainty about election timing.
Zelenskyy open to demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%10%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expressed openness to creating a demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine as part of peace efforts, but Russia showed no indication of withdrawing from occupied territories. The ongoing conflict and unresolved territorial disputes continued to delay any possibility of elections in 2025.
European Parliament approves €90 billion loan for Ukraine
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%7%
The European Parliament approved a €90 billion loan to support Ukraine's financial needs through 2026 and 2027, indirectly supporting the government's ability to maintain martial law and delay elections, influencing market sentiment.
Ukraine signals election readiness but majority oppose wartime vote until ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
Despite some preparations and working groups drafting election legislation, polls showed only 10% support for elections before a ceasefire, and martial law extended through May 2026 legally prohibits elections, limiting near-term election chances.
Ukraine plans presidential election with peace referendum
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%4%
Financial Times reported Ukraine planning a presidential election alongside a referendum on a peace deal, suggesting preparations for elections were underway, which briefly supported market optimism for elections in 2026.
Zelenskyy says ceasefire must precede vote, rules out elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%9%
President Zelenskyy publicly stated that elections cannot be held while martial law is in effect and that a ceasefire must come first, dampening market expectations for 2025 elections and causing price declines.
Zelenskiy denies plans to announce election and referendum on February 24
June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
President Zelenskiy denied reports that he would announce plans for a presidential election and peace deal referendum on the war's anniversary, stating elections would only be held after appropriate security guarantees from the US. This denial reinforced market skepticism about elections occurring soon.
Zelenskiy denies plans for wartime Ukrainian presidential election and peace deal referendum
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%8%
President Zelenskiy rejected a Financial Times report that he planned to announce a presidential election and peace deal referendum on February 24, stating Ukraine would only hold elections after U.S. security guarantees. This caused a significant price drop from 39% to 31% for December 2026 and 13% to 12% for June 2026.
Zelenskyy confirms US security agreement is '100% ready'
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%11%
Zelenskyy announced that a U.S. security guarantees document was ready, which would require ratification by the Ukrainian parliament, briefly raising hopes for a path toward peace and potential elections.
Zelensky says he’s open to creating a demilitarised zone in eastern Ukraine
December 31, 2026 surges to 39%18%
President Zelensky’s statement that Ukraine might accept a demilitarised zone was seen as a concession that could ease peace talks and pave the way for an election timetable, pushing prices up.
Ukraine faces large-scale Russian drone and missile attacks amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%5%
Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure during ongoing peace negotiations, highlighting the ongoing conflict and complicating prospects for elections in 2025.
Trump administration presents 28-point peace plan to Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%8%
The U.S. presented a draft peace proposal to Ukraine, which included significant concessions such as territorial losses and military caps, causing a temporary spike in market optimism regarding a potential end to the conflict.
U.S. and Russia resume trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
The renewal of U.S.–Ukraine–Russia negotiations raised hopes of a cease‑fire and a framework for post‑war elections, prompting a 9‑point rally in the market as traders priced in a possible path to elections.
Parliamentary working group intensifies election preparations amid unresolved issues
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
A parliamentary working group in Ukraine has been actively preparing draft legislation for postwar elections, but key issues such as media regulation and fair voting amid ongoing conflict remain unresolved, limiting near-term election prospects.
Zelenskyy states elections require ceasefire and security guarantees
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%9%
President Zelenskyy publicly declared that national elections in Ukraine will only be held after a ceasefire and security guarantees are in place, reinforcing the legal prohibition on elections during martial law and dampening market expectations for 2026 elections.
Kosovo schedules snap parliamentary vote to break political deadlock
The snap election in Kosovo underscored political volatility in the Balkans, a region bordering Ukraine, adding to broader regional uncertainty that weighed on market sentiment about Ukraine’s election prospects.
Ukraine’s president under pressure amid corruption scandal and war challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Zelenskyy faces internal political crises and corruption scandals, weakening his position and complicating prospects for elections. Martial law remains in place, indefinitely postponing elections, which reduces market expectations for elections in 2025.
UK politician Nathan Gill sentenced for bribery tied to pro‑Russia statements on Ukraine
The sentencing highlighted ongoing Russian influence operations in Europe, raising concerns about political stability in the region and indirectly lowering expectations that Ukraine could hold elections amid external meddling.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy meets with pope and European leaders amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%10%
Zelenskyy engaged in diplomatic meetings to discuss peace proposals, signaling ongoing conflict and no immediate election plans. The talks underscored the war's continuation, which maintains the postponement of elections under martial law, negatively impacting market confidence in elections occurring in 2025.
US pushes for quick peace deal and elections in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 jumps to 30%8%
US sources reported aiming for a March peace deal in Ukraine followed by quick elections, signaling international pressure on Ukraine to hold elections soon. This raised market speculation about elections in 2026, temporarily increasing probabilities.
US aims for March peace deal in Ukraine with quick elections, sources say
December 31, 2026 jumps to 21%13%
Reports emerged that the US was pushing for a peace deal in March 2026 accompanied by quick elections, increasing market optimism temporarily. However, Ukrainian officials noted unresolved issues and ongoing conflict, limiting immediate election prospects.
US and Ukraine discuss March peace deal and quick elections in May
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%4%
US and Ukrainian officials discussed a potential peace deal in March 2026, with national elections and a referendum possibly occurring in May. However, ongoing disagreements over territory and security guarantees delayed progress, maintaining uncertainty and contributing to market price drops for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Ukrainian delegation arrives in US for peace talks amid Russian attacks on energy sites
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
A Ukrainian delegation led by President Zelenskyy's chief of staff arrived in the US to discuss peace agreement details, highlighting ongoing conflict and instability that likely delayed elections. This reinforced market doubts about elections occurring in 2025.
U.S.-brokered Ukraine peace talks resume in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%13%
U.S. officials confirmed that a new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine would take place in Abu Dhabi, suggesting a possible diplomatic breakthrough that could lead to a settlement and trigger early elections.
U.S. military delegation arrives in Kyiv amid Ukraine corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
A senior U.S. military delegation arrived in Kyiv to revive peace efforts while Ukraine faced a $100 million corruption scandal, increasing political uncertainty and reducing confidence in timely elections.
Ukraine, Russia, and US hold trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%8%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US discussed possible parameters for ending the war, but key territorial issues remained unresolved, delaying election prospects.
Ukraine and Russia set dates for trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%10%
President Zelenskyy announced that trilateral peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. were scheduled for February 4-5 in Abu Dhabi, signaling a potential diplomatic push to end the war.
Zelenskyy adjusts negotiating team following massive Russian strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%3%
Following a massive Russian attack on energy infrastructure, Zelenskyy stated that the work of the Ukrainian negotiating team would be adjusted, signaling that diplomatic efforts for peace were being severely hampered by continued military aggression.
Ukraine suspends diesel imports from Hungary over pipeline dispute
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%12%
Hungary’s halt of diesel shipments heightened energy insecurity in Ukraine, signaling broader regional instability and further eroding expectations of a stable electoral environment in 2025.
Zelenskyy says U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine are 100% ready for signing
President Zelenskyy announced that a U.S. security‑guarantees document is fully prepared after two days of trilateral talks, suggesting stronger Western backing that could enable elections. The news coincided with a 12‑point drop in the market, indicating traders saw the promise as insufficient to overcome war‑time constraints.
US-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks resume amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%4%
A new round of US-brokered talks on ending Russia's war in Ukraine took place in Abu Dhabi, but key issues such as territorial control remained unresolved. The ongoing conflict and lack of agreement on peace terms diminished the likelihood of elections being held in Ukraine in 2025, as martial law and instability persisted.
Zelenskyy signals openness to a demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine
Zelenskyy’s willingness to accept a demilitarized zone was seen as a concession that could prolong negotiations and delay any timetable for elections, further depressing market confidence.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announces U.S. security guarantees document is ready
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%10%
Zelenskyy stated that a U.S. security guarantees document for Ukraine was 100% ready after talks involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no election scheduling. This news influenced market perceptions about Ukraine's political stability and election prospects.
U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine declared 100% ready for signing
President Zelenskyy said a U.S. security agreement was fully prepared after talks in Vilnius, signalling continued foreign support but also highlighting that a formal peace settlement – and thus the conditions for elections – remained unresolved, prompting a drop in election‑hold probabilities.
US and Ukraine discuss security framework amid ongoing war and peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%2%
Ongoing US-Ukraine talks on security guarantees and peace frameworks highlighted the complexity and uncertainty of ending the war, with no clear timeline for elections, contributing to market skepticism about elections in 2025.
U.S.-led peace talks continue without agreement on election timing
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. continued in early 2026 with discussions on security guarantees and ceasefire possibilities, but no agreement was reached on holding elections within 2025. This prolonged uncertainty contributed to further decline in market confidence for elections by June 30, 2026.
US, Russia, and Ukraine to hold trilateral talks in UAE, Zelenskyy says
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US were scheduled in the UAE to discuss peace and security issues. The ongoing negotiations suggested elections would not be held imminently in 2025, influencing market prices downward for a 2025 election.
Ukraine’s power grid faces unprecedented challenges amid ongoing Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%7%
Continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure during winter exacerbate humanitarian crises and complicate conditions for holding elections in 2025, reinforcing market skepticism reflected in price declines.
Next round of Ukraine-Russia-U.S. peace talks scheduled for February in Abu Dhabi
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
Peace talks were postponed to early February, with ongoing disagreements over territory and security guarantees, maintaining uncertainty over election timing and contributing to market price drops for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Ukraine's election chief warns against rushed post-war vote
June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
Oleh Didenko, head of Ukraine's Central Election Commission, highlighted the enormous challenges in organizing elections due to destroyed infrastructure, displaced voters, and the need for updated voter registries. He emphasized that a ceasefire and safe conditions are prerequisites for elections, dampening expectations for elections within the market's timeframe.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%9%
European and Canadian leaders agreed to provide multilayered security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a peace proposal, but details remain unclear and fighting continues, delaying elections.
Ukraine’s power grid faces unprecedented challenges amid ongoing Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%5%
Continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during winter highlight the ongoing conflict and instability, further reducing the likelihood of national elections being held in 2025.
Ukraine’s power grid faces unprecedented challenges from Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%5%
Russia intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during winter, worsening humanitarian conditions and undermining stability needed for elections.
Former army chief Zaluzhnyi reveals rift with Zelenskyy
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%7%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s interview exposing a personal and strategic clash with the president suggested potential political fragmentation, undermining confidence that a unified government could organize elections in 2025.
Ukraine's political instability and war conditions reduce chances of 2025 elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%15%
Political rivalries, corruption scandals, and ongoing war conditions continued to undermine prospects for elections within the market's resolution window, pushing prices to new lows.
Ukraine extends martial law and general mobilization until May 4, 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
The Verkhovna Rada extended martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days, reinforcing the legal barrier against holding national elections during this period. This extension maintained the prohibition on elections under martial law, reducing market confidence in elections occurring by June 30, 2026.
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law and mobilization until May 4, 2026
The parliament approved the extension of martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days, continuing the legal barrier to holding national elections within the market's resolution window.
Ukraine to hold elections after peace agreement signed
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%3%
Ukraine announced plans to hold elections after signing a peace agreement, boosting market confidence for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Zelenskyy reiterates readiness for elections if security and legal conditions met
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
President Zelenskyy stated he is ready to hold elections within 60-90 days if security and legal conditions are ensured, but martial law remains in place, keeping the market skeptical about elections in 2025 or early 2026.
Ukrainian former army chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi reveals rift with Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 plunges to 17%17%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a popular former army chief and potential political rival, publicly disclosed tensions with President Zelenskyy, signaling political challenges that could affect election prospects and market confidence.
Ukraine, Russia, and US hold trilateral peace talks in UAE
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US aimed at ending the war included discussions on ceasefire and security guarantees, but key territorial issues remained unresolved, maintaining uncertainty about elections in 2025.
U.S. and Ukraine continue talks on security framework for peace deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%4%
American and Ukrainian officials held ongoing discussions on a security framework to end the war, with no final agreement yet, maintaining uncertainty about election timing in Ukraine.
Zelenskyy announces plan to hold elections after security agreement is ratified
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%
Zelenskyy stated that elections would be scheduled once the U.S. security agreement is ratified by both the Ukrainian parliament and U.S. Congress, but the lack of a concrete date kept market sentiment low, further dragging prices down.
Russia intensifies drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%4%
Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, worsening humanitarian conditions and complicating prospects for elections within 2025, leading to market price declines for election outcomes.
U.S. and European leaders discuss security guarantees and peace efforts for Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%2%
European and Canadian leaders met to discuss U.S.-led peace efforts including security guarantees for Ukraine, indicating ongoing negotiations but no immediate elections, which dampened market expectations for 2025 elections.
Head of Zelensky's faction suggests elections could be held within 90 days after ceasefire
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%5%
David Arakhamia stated that elections and a referendum might be held within 90 days after a ceasefire, implying elections in 2025 are unlikely and pushing expectations into 2026 or later, which aligned with market price declines.
Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid security and peace focus
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%6%
President Zelenskyy appointed Gen. Kyrylo Budanov as his new chief of staff to sharpen focus on security, defense, and peace talks, signaling ongoing war conditions and political challenges delaying elections.
Martial law extended again, elections remain constitutionally banned
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%7%
Martial law in Ukraine was extended again, continuing the constitutional ban on holding national elections during this period. This legal reality solidified market expectations that elections would not occur in 2025 or early 2026, pushing prices lower for both June and December 2026 outcomes.
Ukraine endures severe winter amid Russian attacks on power infrastructure
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure caused widespread power outages during a harsh winter, exacerbating the country’s crisis and complicating prospects for holding elections in 2025.
EU officials say NATO‑backed security guarantees for Ukraine remain pending
EU diplomats confirmed that the promised NATO‑backed security guarantees for Ukraine had not yet been formalized, reinforcing market fears that without external security Ukraine could not safely hold elections in 2025.
No official scheduling of Ukraine elections in 2025 amid war and political crisis
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%9%
Despite ongoing peace talks and diplomatic efforts, Ukraine did not officially schedule national elections within 2025. Political instability, including a $100 million corruption scandal implicating top officials, weakened President Zelenskyy’s position and further diminished prospects for elections in 2025.
Verkhovna Rada forms special working group to draft legislation for presidential election under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%11%
The parliament formed a special working group to draft legislation for a presidential election under martial law, but this was acknowledged as unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, confirming no 2025 elections.
Ukraine holds prisoner exchange amid ongoing war and infrastructure attacks
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%5%
Despite ongoing war and Russian attacks on infrastructure, Ukraine conducted prisoner exchanges, showing continued conflict and instability, which delayed elections.
Ukraine appoints new chief of staff focusing on security and peace talks amid war and political turmoil
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%7%
Zelenskyy appointed Gen. Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff to sharpen focus on security, defense, and peace talks, reflecting ongoing war conditions and political instability that make holding elections in 2025 unlikely.
Ukraine's parliament forms working group to prepare election legislation during martial law
The Verkhovna Rada established a working group to draft legislative proposals for conducting elections during martial law, marking the first formal step toward enabling elections despite ongoing martial law, but no election date was set.
Ukrainian parliament forms working group to prepare elections and referendum
December 31, 2026 dips to 40%4%
The Verkhovna Rada established a working group to draft legislation for elections during wartime, indicating initial steps toward post-war elections but no immediate election date, which maintained downward pressure on market prices.
Ukraine forms working group to prepare elections and referendum
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
The Verkhovna Rada's First Deputy Chairman announced the formation of a working group to prepare for elections and a referendum, signaling administrative steps toward eventual elections but not immediate scheduling, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and contributing to market fluctuations.
Opposition leaders confirm opposition to wartime elections
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%9%
On March 6, 2025, opposition politicians Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko confirmed their opposition to holding elections during wartime, aligning with the parliamentary consensus and further diminishing market expectations for elections in 2025.
Ukrainian parliament establishes working group on wartime elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%6%
Parliament's speaker signed an order to create a working group chaired by First Deputy Speaker Oleksandr Korniienko to draft legislation on holding elections during martial law. This institutionalized the process for potential wartime elections.
Ukrainian parliament postpones election law amendment amid political infighting
The Verkhovna Rada delayed a key amendment that would set the legal framework for 2025 elections, signaling internal disagreement and pushing back expectations for a definitive election date.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet to discuss Ukraine security guarantees and reconstruction
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%7%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Trump to discuss security guarantees and economic agreements, including territorial issues and elections. The talks indicated progress but no firm election date in 2025, contributing to market uncertainty.
Ukrainian parliament forms working group to study elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 47%8%
The Verkhovna Rada established a formal working group to explore the feasibility of holding elections during martial law. However, no draft legislation or firm plans emerged, leading to market skepticism and a decline in election probability.
Ukraine's Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%6%
President Zelenskyy appointed military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff to focus on security and peace talks, reflecting internal political challenges and impacting market confidence in timely elections.
Czech government faces no-confidence vote amid Ukraine policy dispute
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%9%
The Czech government’s shift away from supporting Ukraine and internal political disputes reflect broader European political challenges that may affect support for Ukraine’s stability and elections. This event influenced market sentiment on Ukraine’s political future.
Russia launches massive drone‑missile strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
Russia fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Ukraine’s power grid, prompting Zelenskyy to warn that the attacks could delay any election timetable and further erode confidence in a 2025 vote.
Zelenskyy says he would run if next election held during war, but unsure about peacetime
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%14%
Zelenskyy stated he would run if the next election was held during the war, but was unsure if he would run in peacetime, reinforcing the conditional nature of any future elections.
Russia orders Euroclear to pay compensation to its central bank over seized assets
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%8%
Russia's court ruled in favor of the Central Bank in its lawsuit against Euroclear, which could impact EU sanctions and financial flows related to Ukraine, adding complexity to the geopolitical environment.
No draft legislation on elections under martial law in Ukrainian parliament
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%4%
On December 11, 2025, Oleksandr Korniienko, First Deputy Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, confirmed there were no draft bills or legislative initiatives regarding elections during martial law, reinforcing market doubts about elections happening in 2025.
Al Jazeera reports even if Kyiv begins preparations, vote likely cannot be held before March 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%29%
Al Jazeera reported that even if Kyiv begins preparations for a vote, it likely could not be held much earlier than March 2026, with the Verkhovna Rada taking weeks to draft and vote on a law allowing the election.
Ukraine and U.S. negotiate peace plan including elections after war
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%6%
President Zelenskyy announced a 20-point peace plan negotiated with the U.S. that includes holding elections after the war ends, implying elections would not occur in 2025. This reduced market confidence in elections by June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
Zelenskyy ready for wartime elections if parliament and allies agree
December 31, 2026 rises to 46%3%
Zelenskyy declared readiness to hold elections during wartime within three months if legislative changes and security measures were implemented, responding to criticism from Donald Trump. This statement briefly raised market hopes but was tempered by constitutional and security constraints.
President Zelenskyy ready to hold elections but requires legislative changes and security guarantees
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%5%
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to hold elections but emphasized the need for legislative amendments and security assurances, signaling that elections during martial law remain unlikely, which contributed to market uncertainty and price declines.
Zelenskyy responds to Trump, ready to hold wartime elections within months
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%8%
Following Trump's accusations of clinging to power, Zelenskyy declared readiness to hold elections during wartime within three months if parliament and allies allow, signaling a shift in stance but acknowledging legal and security challenges.
President Zelenskyy signals readiness for elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%8%
In early December 2025, President Zelenskyy stated he was "always ready" for elections and discussed with parliament the possibility of holding presidential elections during martial law. This raised market speculation but lacked concrete legislative action, causing volatility in election probabilities.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready for elections if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%8%
President Zelenskyy publicly stated readiness to hold elections within 60-90 days if the U.S. and European allies could ensure security, responding to pressure from U.S. President Trump. This raised market hopes for elections but was contingent on security guarantees and legislative changes.
U.S. and Russia resume stalled peace talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%13%
The resumption of U.S.-brokered negotiations without any breakthrough on a cease‑fire reinforced expectations that the conflict would continue, further depressing the likelihood of elections in 2025.
U.S. revives Ukraine‑Russia peace push amid Zelenskyy corruption scandal
A high‑level U.S. military delegation arrived in Kyiv while a $100 million corruption scandal forced the dismissal of two Ukrainian ministers, deepening political turmoil and lowering market confidence that elections could be scheduled on time.
Ukraine suffers heavy Russian drone and missile attacks amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%6%
Russia launched a massive drone and missile strike on Ukraine’s energy targets during ongoing peace negotiations, highlighting the ongoing conflict and instability that diminish prospects for elections in 2025. This event contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Corruption scandal weakens Zelenskyy’s government amid ongoing war
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%14%
A $100 million corruption scandal involving top officials in Ukraine’s government led to protests and political instability, undermining confidence in the government’s ability to hold elections and contributing to market price declines.
Zelenskyy meets with US leaders to discuss election preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%2%
Zelenskyy met with US officials to discuss potential wartime elections, seeking international support for security measures. This diplomatic engagement signaled serious consideration of early elections.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in next 60-90 days if security guaranteed
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%3%
President Zelenskyy stated Ukraine might be ready to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if security conditions improve, countering claims that he was delaying elections to cling to power. However, the ongoing war and infrastructure damage made this uncertain, causing some market volatility.
Ukraine faces ongoing war and political pressure delaying elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
Continued Russian attacks and internal political crises, including corruption scandals and leadership challenges, sustained uncertainty about election timing. This prolonged the market's downward trend on election likelihood within 2025.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 50%6%
On February 26, 2025, the Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the war ends. This official stance strongly influenced market sentiment, reducing the likelihood of elections in 2025 or early 2026.
Zelenskyy says presidential election could be in March 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 24%20%
Zelenskyy stated that if Kyiv begins preparations, an election could be held in March 2026, though he acknowledged the timeline was 'fantasy' if security cannot be guaranteed. This provided a more realistic but still distant timeline.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy agrees in principle to U.S. peace plan requiring elections after war
December 31, 2026 drops to 54%14%
Zelenskyy agreed in principle to a U.S.-proposed peace plan that includes holding elections after the war ends and security guarantees are in place, indicating elections would not occur during 2025 but rather post-conflict, reducing market confidence in 2025 elections.
Trump administration presents 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan including elections after war
December 31, 2026 drops to 54%14%
The Trump administration presented a detailed peace plan to Ukraine, which included security guarantees and a provision for Ukraine to hold elections 100 days after the agreement. This raised hopes for elections but also uncertainty about timing, impacting market prices for elections in 2025.
U.S.-led peace talks in Abu Dhabi involving Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. officials
December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%11%
Trilateral talks aimed at ending the war included discussions on ceasefire and security guarantees, but no agreement on elections timing was reached, contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility for December 31, 2026 outcome.
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy faces mounting pressure amid corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 drops to 47%7%
President Zelenskyy struggled to contain fallout from a $100 million corruption scandal implicating top officials, weakening political stability and reducing confidence in holding elections in 2025. This contributed to further price declines for election outcomes in 2025.
Zelenskyy says elections will only be held after war ends
June 30, 2026 drops to 18%12%
In a televised address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated that national elections cannot be scheduled while martial law remains in effect, pushing the prospect of a 2025 vote further into uncertainty and causing a sharp drop in market confidence.
Zelenskyy open to peace plan with demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine
June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%19%
Zelenskyy expressed openness to creating a demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine as part of a peace plan, which could influence the timing and conditions for future elections.
OSCE seminar discusses Ukraine's post-war election readiness
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%7%
OSCE PA held a seminar in Istanbul focusing on Ukraine's efforts to prepare for post-martial law elections, emphasizing the need for innovative solutions and international support. This highlighted the international community's role in Ukraine's electoral future.
OSCE seminar highlights Ukraine's commitment to post-war elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%9%
At an OSCE Parliamentary Assembly seminar in Istanbul, Ukrainian officials and international partners discussed preparations for elections after martial law ends, emphasizing the need for international support and innovative solutions for post-conflict elections. This reinforced expectations that elections would be postponed until after the war, impacting market confidence negatively for 2026 election dates.
Zelenskyy says ready for wartime elections within three months
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%11%
President Zelenskyy stated he is prepared to hold elections during martial law if parliament and allies allow it, responding to Trump's claims about clinging to power. This raised hopes for early elections but was quickly tempered by constitutional and security concerns.
Political parties agree to postpone elections until after martial law ends
June 30, 2026 drops to 25%6%
In November 2023, all political parties in the Verkhovna Rada signed a memorandum agreeing to postpone elections until after martial law ends, reflecting broad political consensus against wartime elections. This agreement influenced market expectations for delayed elections.
Russian attacks intensify on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amid winter
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%24%
Russia escalated attacks on Ukraine’s power grid causing severe electricity shortages and hardship during winter, undermining stability and complicating conditions for holding elections in 2025. The worsening humanitarian situation likely contributed to market price declines for elections in 2025.
Martial law extended in Ukraine until February 2026, blocking elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for the 17th time until February 3, 2026, legally prohibiting presidential and parliamentary elections during this period, which caused market prices for elections in 2025 to drop.
Ukraine’s president under pressure amid corruption scandal and peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
President Zelenskyy faced a $100 million corruption scandal weakening his government, coinciding with renewed U.S.-led peace efforts proposing elections after the war. The political turmoil contributed to market uncertainty about elections in 2025.
All Ukrainian parliamentary parties agree to postpone elections until after martial law
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
In November 2025, all political parties in the Verkhovna Rada signed a memorandum agreeing to postpone national elections until after martial law ends, reinforcing the market's declining confidence in 2025 elections.
Ukraine President Zelenskyy discusses peace plan including elections after war
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
Zelenskyy outlined a 20-point peace plan with the U.S. that includes holding elections after the war ends, indicating elections would not occur during 2025. This reinforced market expectations that elections would be delayed beyond the market's resolution window, lowering prices for both outcomes.
Verkhovna Rada extends martial law until February 3, 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%8%
The Ukrainian parliament extended martial law for 90 days, legally prohibiting national elections during this period and reinforcing the postponement of elections until after martial law ends.
Zelenskyy says U.S. security‑guarantees document is “100% ready” but awaiting signing date
President Zelenskyy announced that a U.S. security‑guarantees agreement for Ukraine was fully prepared after talks in Abu Dhabi, but no signing date had been set, heightening uncertainty about when the deal – a prerequisite for stable election planning – would be finalized.
Zelensky signs laws extending martial law and mobilization until February 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%2%
President Zelensky signed legislation extending martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days, effectively prohibiting any national elections in 2025 and confirming the continuation of the current political status quo amid ongoing conflict.
Ukraine local elections postponed as martial law continues
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Parliament adopted a resolution declaring the impossibility of running local elections during Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine and martial law, confirming no elections in October 2025.
Ukraine’s martial law indefinitely postpones presidential and parliamentary elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
Martial law triggered by Russia’s invasion has indefinitely postponed Ukraine’s national elections, originally scheduled for spring 2024, making elections within 2025 unlikely. This official postponement directly impacts the market’s resolution criteria, reducing the probability of elections being held in 2025.
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid ongoing war and peace efforts
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%6%
Zelenskyy appointed the head of military intelligence as his new chief of staff to focus on security and peace talks, signaling continued prioritization of war efforts over immediate election preparations, reinforcing market doubts about 2025 elections.
Ukraine’s president under pressure amid war and corruption scandals, elections unlikely in 2025
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%7%
President Zelenskyy faces multiple crises including corruption scandals and war fatigue, weakening political stability and reducing the likelihood of elections being held in 2025. The political environment and ongoing martial law make election scheduling within 2025 improbable, reflected in the market’s low probability.
No official scheduling of Ukraine’s 2025 elections amid ongoing war and political instability
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%7%
As of mid-October 2025, no official announcement was made by the Ukrainian government scheduling national elections within the 2025 timeframe. The ongoing war and martial law conditions made it unlikely elections would be held before the end of 2025, reinforcing market expectations of a 'No' resolution.
Ukraine’s president faces multiple crises amid war and corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%9%
President Zelenskyy faced growing pressure from a $100 million corruption scandal and political challenges, complicating governance during ongoing war and reducing likelihood of elections in 2025.
U.S.-brokered peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. held in Abu Dhabi
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%6%
Diplomatic efforts to end the war continued with talks in Abu Dhabi, but no agreement on ceasefire or elections was reached, maintaining uncertainty about Ukraine’s ability to hold elections in 2025. This contributed to further decline in market confidence.
Zelenskyy discusses peace plan draft requiring elections only after war settlement
June 30, 2026 rises to 25%3%
News emerged that a draft peace plan being negotiated with the U.S. would only require Ukraine to hold elections after the signing of a formal agreement, further pushing potential election dates beyond 2025.
Ukraine’s political crisis deepens amid corruption scandal and war fatigue
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%6%
President Zelenskyy faced mounting pressure from a $100 million corruption scandal implicating top officials, eroding public trust and political stability. This turmoil further reduced confidence in the government’s ability to hold elections in 2025, contributing to a continued decline in market prices.
Ukraine agrees in principle to hold elections after war ends as part of peace talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%6%
In peace negotiations, Ukraine agreed to hold elections only after the war ends and security guarantees are in place, signaling no elections would occur during 2025. This official stance contributed to the market’s decline in election probability for 2025.
Ukraine peace talks continue amid ongoing conflict and political uncertainty
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%2%
Despite ongoing U.S.-brokered peace talks and diplomatic efforts to end the war, no agreement or official election scheduling was reached, maintaining uncertainty about the timing of Ukraine’s national elections. The continued conflict and lack of election scheduling contributed to sustained low market confidence in elections occurring in 2025.
Ukraine’s presidential and parliamentary elections postponed indefinitely under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%10%
Due to Russia's full-scale invasion and the imposition of martial law, Ukraine indefinitely postponed its national elections originally scheduled for 2025, making the holding of elections within the specified timeframe unlikely and impacting market prices negatively.
Verkhovna Rada adopts resolution declaring local elections impossible during martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%4%
Ukraine's parliament passed a resolution stating local elections cannot be held during the ongoing war and martial law, effectively postponing elections and reinforcing market expectations that no national elections would occur in 2025.
Ukrainian parliament adopts resolution declaring local elections impossible during martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 20%3%
The Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution stating that local elections scheduled for October 2025 cannot be held due to martial law and ongoing war, extending current officials' terms and signaling no elections will occur until martial law is lifted, dampening election prospects in 2025.
Ukraine parliament passes resolution postponing local elections
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%3%
Verkhovna Rada passed Resolution No. 14301 extending martial law and general mobilization until November 5, 2025, and declaring impossibility of holding local elections during the war.
Kiev preparing stealthy campaign for potential presidential election
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%4%
Ukrainian officials reported that Kiev is conducting a 'stealthy albeit rough' campaign to prepare for a potential presidential election, indicating ongoing political activity despite no scheduled elections.
Reports of secret preparations for presidential election in Ukraine
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%2%
Politico reported that Kiev was conducting a stealthy campaign to prepare for a potential presidential election, citing pressure on anti-corruption agencies and political maneuvering, indicating some internal moves toward elections despite ongoing conflict and martial law.
Kiev secretly preparing for presidential election despite Zelenskyy's statements
June 30, 2026 rises to 25%2%
Reports emerged that Kiev was conducting a stealth campaign to prepare for a potential presidential election, suggesting political maneuvering despite Zelenskyy's public stance. This news caused minor market fluctuations but did not reverse the downward trend for a 2025 election.
Ukraine ex-army chief reveals rift with Zelenskyy over war strategy
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%9%
The former army chief, seen as Zelenskyy's top rival, spoke publicly about a deep rift with the president, raising questions about political stability and potential leadership changes that could delay elections.
Ukraine’s political uncertainty deepens amid corruption scandal and war pressures
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%3%
President Zelenskyy faced growing pressure from a $100 million corruption scandal implicating top officials, weakening political stability and diminishing prospects for holding elections in 2025. This further lowered market expectations for elections within the year.
Russia targeting Moldovan elections with disinformation campaign
UK Defence Intelligence reported Russia was conducting an extensive interference campaign targeting Moldova's September 28 parliamentary elections, highlighting broader election interference concerns.
Zelenskyy confirms elections possible only in case of cease-fire agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 50%1%
Zelenskyy reiterated that presidential elections are only possible if a cease-fire agreement is reached, reinforcing the indefinite postponement of national elections.
Zelenskyy promises parliamentary elections after peace with Russia
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated he would ask parliament to organize presidential elections following a long-term peace agreement with Russia, signaling potential election timing.
Zelensky promises to ask parliament for elections after ceasefire
December 31, 2026 jumps to 56%5%
President Zelensky stated he would ask Ukraine's parliament to organize presidential elections if a ceasefire was reached, signaling potential 2025 elections. This initially boosted the December 2026 outcome.
Zelenskyy promises presidential elections after peace agreement with Russia
June 30, 2026 dips to 50%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that presidential elections would be held after concluding a long-term peace with Russia, but confirmed elections were postponed indefinitely due to ongoing conflict and martial law.
Zelensky vows to step down after war and push for elections if ceasefire occurs
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%3%
In multiple interviews, Zelensky reiterated he would not seek re-election after the war and would ask parliament to organize elections if a ceasefire is reached, emphasizing constitutional and security challenges but maintaining elections are possible during peace.
Former Ukrainian army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy and political ambitions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former army chief and ambassador to Britain, publicly disclosed tensions with President Zelenskyy and was seen as a potential political rival. This raised speculation about future elections but emphasized that no elections were scheduled or held in 2025, affecting market expectations for a 2025 election.
Verkhovna Rada passes resolution reaffirming no elections during martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
On February 26, 2025, the Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold presidential elections only after the war concludes. This official stance significantly reduced market confidence in elections occurring by June 30, 2026.
Zelenskyy states elections will be held only after ceasefire and peace with Russia
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
President Zelenskyy declared he would ask parliament to organize elections only after a long-term peace agreement with Russia, indicating elections in 2025 were unlikely. This statement caused a sharp drop in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 election outcome.
Ukraine’s power grid faces unprecedented challenges amid ongoing war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been under relentless attack by Russia, causing widespread blackouts and severe hardship, which undermines the country’s ability to conduct national elections in 2025. This situation likely contributed to the market’s sharp drop in election probability on this date.
Zelensky states elections possible if ceasefire is reached
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
President Zelensky said in an interview that Ukraine could hold presidential elections if a ceasefire is achieved, signaling willingness to organize elections during a pause in hostilities. This raised market hopes for elections in 2025 contingent on peace progress.
Ukraine's president faces growing pressure amid corruption scandal and peace plan negotiations
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Reports highlighted that martial law in Ukraine continues to indefinitely postpone presidential and parliamentary elections, reinforcing the unlikelihood of a 2025 vote.
Verkhovna Rada reaffirms no elections during martial law, pledges post-war presidential vote
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
On February 26, 2025, the Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution reaffirming that elections should not be held during martial law and pledged to hold a presidential election after the Russo-Ukrainian War ends. This reinforced the legal and political barriers to elections in 2025, impacting market expectations for early elections.
Ukraine’s presidential and parliamentary elections remain postponed under martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%
Martial law in Ukraine, triggered by the ongoing war with Russia, indefinitely postponed national elections originally scheduled for spring 2024. This continued postponement through late 2025 cast doubt on whether elections would be held within the 2025 window, causing market prices to drop sharply.
Ukraine’s ex-army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy amid war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former army chief and political rival to President Zelenskyy, publicly disclosed tensions and a political rift, signaling internal instability during wartime. This raised doubts about the government's ability to hold elections in 2025, impacting market prices for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Ukraine's former army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy amid war and political tensions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ex-army chief and potential political rival to Zelenskyy, publicly disclosed tensions and a political rift, highlighting internal instability. This raised doubts about Ukraine's political cohesion and the likelihood of elections during ongoing conflict, impacting market prices for June 30, 2026.
Ukraine faces ongoing war and martial law delaying elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Martial law in Ukraine indefinitely postponed presidential and parliamentary elections originally scheduled for 2024, with the war continuing to disrupt normal political processes. This uncertainty led to a drop in market prices for elections occurring by June 30, 2026.
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