Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, anchored by U.S. President Trump's recent brokering of a three-day truce from May 9-11 for Victory Day, including swaps of 2,000 prisoners of war—the latest in a series of humanitarian pauses following the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire in April. Building on February's Geneva trilateral talks and renewed 2025-2026 negotiations addressing security guarantees, territorial disputes, and de-escalation, prolonged conflict fatigue, waning Western aid, economic sanctions pressures, and mutual military exhaustion underpin this positioning after over four years of war. Late-breaking escalations, such as major offensives or diplomatic breakdowns, remain slim scenarios that could avert agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
$83,320 Vol.
$83,320 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
$83,320 Vol.
$83,320 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, anchored by U.S. President Trump's recent brokering of a three-day truce from May 9-11 for Victory Day, including swaps of 2,000 prisoners of war—the latest in a series of humanitarian pauses following the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire in April. Building on February's Geneva trilateral talks and renewed 2025-2026 negotiations addressing security guarantees, territorial disputes, and de-escalation, prolonged conflict fatigue, waning Western aid, economic sanctions pressures, and mutual military exhaustion underpin this positioning after over four years of war. Late-breaking escalations, such as major offensives or diplomatic breakdowns, remain slim scenarios that could avert agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volume
$83,320End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, anchored by U.S. President Trump's recent brokering of a three-day truce from May 9-11 for Victory Day, including swaps of 2,000 prisoners of war—the latest in a series of humanitarian pauses following the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire in April. Building on February's Geneva trilateral talks and renewed 2025-2026 negotiations addressing security guarantees, territorial disputes, and de-escalation, prolonged conflict fatigue, waning Western aid, economic sanctions pressures, and mutual military exhaustion underpin this positioning after over four years of war. Late-breaking escalations, such as major offensives or diplomatic breakdowns, remain slim scenarios that could avert agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$83,320End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, anchored by U.S. President Trump's recent brokering of a three-day truce from May 9-11 for Victory Day, including swaps of 2,000 prisoners of war—the latest in a series of humanitarian pauses following the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire in April. Building on February's Geneva trilateral talks and renewed 2025-2026 negotiations addressing security guarantees, territorial disputes, and de-escalation, prolonged conflict fatigue, waning Western aid, economic sanctions pressures, and mutual military exhaustion underpin this positioning after over four years of war. Late-breaking escalations, such as major offensives or diplomatic breakdowns, remain slim scenarios that could avert agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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