Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 53.5% implied probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027, driven by persistent frontline stalemates reported in late March ISW assessments, where Russian advances slowed amid Ukrainian resistance, and stalled US-brokered peace talks placed on hold due to Middle East escalations. Early March developments, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial withdrawals from Donetsk as a precondition for negotiations and Zelenskyy's disclosure of captured Russian offensive plans targeting Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Odesa through 2027, underscore deep divides over security guarantees and borders. Balancing war fatigue, potential diplomatic windows ahead of US midterms, and EU calls for immediate talks are offset by Russia's rejection of concessions; breakthroughs could arise from renewed multilateral summits or aid shifts, while intensified military actions or failed prisoner exchanges might prolong the conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
NEW
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Dec 31, 2027
NEW
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Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 53.5% implied probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027, driven by persistent frontline stalemates reported in late March ISW assessments, where Russian advances slowed amid Ukrainian resistance, and stalled US-brokered peace talks placed on hold due to Middle East escalations. Early March developments, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial withdrawals from Donetsk as a precondition for negotiations and Zelenskyy's disclosure of captured Russian offensive plans targeting Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Odesa through 2027, underscore deep divides over security guarantees and borders. Balancing war fatigue, potential diplomatic windows ahead of US midterms, and EU calls for immediate talks are offset by Russia's rejection of concessions; breakthroughs could arise from renewed multilateral summits or aid shifts, while intensified military actions or failed prisoner exchanges might prolong the conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$3,781End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 53.5% implied probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027, driven by persistent frontline stalemates reported in late March ISW assessments, where Russian advances slowed amid Ukrainian resistance, and stalled US-brokered peace talks placed on hold due to Middle East escalations. Early March developments, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial withdrawals from Donetsk as a precondition for negotiations and Zelenskyy's disclosure of captured Russian offensive plans targeting Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Odesa through 2027, underscore deep divides over security guarantees and borders. Balancing war fatigue, potential diplomatic windows ahead of US midterms, and EU calls for immediate talks are offset by Russia's rejection of concessions; breakthroughs could arise from renewed multilateral summits or aid shifts, while intensified military actions or failed prisoner exchanges might prolong the conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$3,781End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 53.5% implied probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027, driven by persistent frontline stalemates reported in late March ISW assessments, where Russian advances slowed amid Ukrainian resistance, and stalled US-brokered peace talks placed on hold due to Middle East escalations. Early March developments, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial withdrawals from Donetsk as a precondition for negotiations and Zelenskyy's disclosure of captured Russian offensive plans targeting Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Odesa through 2027, underscore deep divides over security guarantees and borders. Balancing war fatigue, potential diplomatic windows ahead of US midterms, and EU calls for immediate talks are offset by Russia's rejection of concessions; breakthroughs could arise from renewed multilateral summits or aid shifts, while intensified military actions or failed prisoner exchanges might prolong the conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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