Ukraine's resolute refusal to cede any territory in Donbas, enshrined in its constitution and reiterated by President Zelenskyy in recent addresses, drives the strong trader consensus against agreement before 2027. Official statements emphasize full Russian withdrawal as a precondition for peace, with no active negotiations underway despite U.S. President-elect Trump's pledges for swift conflict resolution. Russian advances remain incremental in Donetsk oblast, met by Ukrainian counteroffensives bolstered by Western arms deliveries, including recent U.S. aid packages. Zelenskyy's December 2024 victory plan updates to allies reject concessions, while public opinion polls show overwhelming opposition to territorial losses, reinforcing the 86.5% implied probability of "No" amid stalled diplomacy and sustained frontline resistance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$50,369 Vol.
$50,369 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$50,369 Vol.
$50,369 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine's resolute refusal to cede any territory in Donbas, enshrined in its constitution and reiterated by President Zelenskyy in recent addresses, drives the strong trader consensus against agreement before 2027. Official statements emphasize full Russian withdrawal as a precondition for peace, with no active negotiations underway despite U.S. President-elect Trump's pledges for swift conflict resolution. Russian advances remain incremental in Donetsk oblast, met by Ukrainian counteroffensives bolstered by Western arms deliveries, including recent U.S. aid packages. Zelenskyy's December 2024 victory plan updates to allies reject concessions, while public opinion polls show overwhelming opposition to territorial losses, reinforcing the 86.5% implied probability of "No" amid stalled diplomacy and sustained frontline resistance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$50,369End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine's resolute refusal to cede any territory in Donbas, enshrined in its constitution and reiterated by President Zelenskyy in recent addresses, drives the strong trader consensus against agreement before 2027. Official statements emphasize full Russian withdrawal as a precondition for peace, with no active negotiations underway despite U.S. President-elect Trump's pledges for swift conflict resolution. Russian advances remain incremental in Donetsk oblast, met by Ukrainian counteroffensives bolstered by Western arms deliveries, including recent U.S. aid packages. Zelenskyy's December 2024 victory plan updates to allies reject concessions, while public opinion polls show overwhelming opposition to territorial losses, reinforcing the 86.5% implied probability of "No" amid stalled diplomacy and sustained frontline resistance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$50,369End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's resolute refusal to cede any territory in Donbas, enshrined in its constitution and reiterated by President Zelenskyy in recent addresses, drives the strong trader consensus against agreement before 2027. Official statements emphasize full Russian withdrawal as a precondition for peace, with no active negotiations underway despite U.S. President-elect Trump's pledges for swift conflict resolution. Russian advances remain incremental in Donetsk oblast, met by Ukrainian counteroffensives bolstered by Western arms deliveries, including recent U.S. aid packages. Zelenskyy's December 2024 victory plan updates to allies reject concessions, while public opinion polls show overwhelming opposition to territorial losses, reinforcing the 86.5% implied probability of "No" amid stalled diplomacy and sustained frontline resistance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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