Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Ukraine will not sign a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered negotiations amid Russia's launch of a spring offensive four days ago and distractions from the concurrent Iran war. Recent diplomatic pauses announced by Moscow on March 19, coupled with ongoing frontline strikes and unresolved territorial disputes—such as Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk—have halted progress, despite earlier talks yielding minor gains like POW exchanges and discussions on demilitarized zones. With just three days remaining and no scheduled summits or breakthroughs signaled by Kyiv or Washington, the market prices in structural barriers including security guarantees and escalation signals. Only an unforeseen diplomatic announcement or ceasefire halt could shift odds, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest minimal feasibility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
$375,235 Vol.
$375,235 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$375,235 Vol.
$375,235 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Ukraine will not sign a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered negotiations amid Russia's launch of a spring offensive four days ago and distractions from the concurrent Iran war. Recent diplomatic pauses announced by Moscow on March 19, coupled with ongoing frontline strikes and unresolved territorial disputes—such as Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk—have halted progress, despite earlier talks yielding minor gains like POW exchanges and discussions on demilitarized zones. With just three days remaining and no scheduled summits or breakthroughs signaled by Kyiv or Washington, the market prices in structural barriers including security guarantees and escalation signals. Only an unforeseen diplomatic announcement or ceasefire halt could shift odds, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest minimal feasibility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$375,235End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Ukraine will not sign a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered negotiations amid Russia's launch of a spring offensive four days ago and distractions from the concurrent Iran war. Recent diplomatic pauses announced by Moscow on March 19, coupled with ongoing frontline strikes and unresolved territorial disputes—such as Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk—have halted progress, despite earlier talks yielding minor gains like POW exchanges and discussions on demilitarized zones. With just three days remaining and no scheduled summits or breakthroughs signaled by Kyiv or Washington, the market prices in structural barriers including security guarantees and escalation signals. Only an unforeseen diplomatic announcement or ceasefire halt could shift odds, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest minimal feasibility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$375,235End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Ukraine will not sign a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered negotiations amid Russia's launch of a spring offensive four days ago and distractions from the concurrent Iran war. Recent diplomatic pauses announced by Moscow on March 19, coupled with ongoing frontline strikes and unresolved territorial disputes—such as Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk—have halted progress, despite earlier talks yielding minor gains like POW exchanges and discussions on demilitarized zones. With just three days remaining and no scheduled summits or breakthroughs signaled by Kyiv or Washington, the market prices in structural barriers including security guarantees and escalation signals. Only an unforeseen diplomatic announcement or ceasefire halt could shift odds, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest minimal feasibility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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