Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reiterated in mid-September 2026 that Hezbollah disarmament is non-negotiable and must proceed peacefully through state institutions, with the Lebanese Armed Forces advancing operations in southern pilot zones to assert control and seize weapons caches. Israel and the United States continue to emphasize verified disarmament as central to any security framework or withdrawal, including third-party monitoring arrangements under discussion. Hezbollah leadership, including Secretary-General Naim Qassem, has repeatedly rejected these terms as threats to Lebanese sovereignty and refused formal commitments, while reports indicate limited progress beyond initial phases south of the Litani River. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with markets assigning low probabilities to an official Hezbollah announcement by year-end or early 2027 deadlines amid ongoing strikes, fragile ceasefires, and Hezbollah's insistence on linking any steps to Israeli concessions.