**Ongoing deadlock in the US-brokered trilateral framework between Lebanon, Israel, and the United States continues to shape trader views on Hezbollah disarmament timelines.** Signed in June 2026, the agreement ties phased Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon to verifiable steps toward exclusive Lebanese state control over weapons, including third-party monitoring, yet talks remain stalled over sequencing: Israel conditions further withdrawals on disarmament progress, while Hezbollah insists on prior Israeli pullback. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem has repeatedly rejected government-mandated timelines, including a four-month window for phase-two efforts north of the Litani River, citing ongoing Israeli strikes and reconstruction needs. The Lebanese Armed Forces report substantial progress south of the Litani, with roughly 80 percent of targeted weaponry removed, but Hezbollah has resisted further phases and shows signs of rebuilding capabilities with renewed Iranian support. Upcoming diplomacy, including a Netanyahu-Trump meeting and postponed Rome talks, could influence momentum, though Hezbollah’s entrenched position and the group’s warnings of internal friction keep near-term full disarmament prospects limited in trader assessments.