This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent military tensions, including large-scale US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian retaliatory actions, prompted multiple full or partial closures of Iranian airspace, including restrictions in the Tehran Flight Information Region. A ceasefire announced in early April and later extended enabled a partial reopening on April 21, with eastern sectors allowing limited overflights under strict procedures while western areas remained restricted. International aviation authorities continue to advise against operations in Iranian airspace through late May due to elevated risks from ongoing regional hostilities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential escalations, and official NOTAMs for any new broad closures that would resolve related prediction markets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
最終審査
Recent military tensions, including large-scale US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian retaliatory actions, prompted multiple full or partial closures of Iranian airspace, including restrictions in the Tehran Flight Information Region. A ceasefire announced in early April and later extended enabled a partial reopening on April 21, with eastern sectors allowing limited overflights under strict procedures while western areas remained restricted. International aviation authorities continue to advise against operations in Iranian airspace through late May due to elevated risks from ongoing regional hostilities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential escalations, and official NOTAMs for any new broad closures that would resolve related prediction markets.
Iran confirms major airspace closure affecting multiple airports
May 24 surges to 99%90%
By May 23, reports confirmed that Iran initiated a major closure of its airspace affecting commercial flights across multiple key airports, meeting the market's criteria for a broad suspension not due to weather. This confirmation caused the market prices for all resolution dates to jump to near 100%.
May 22 2026
Indian airlines issue advisories amid ongoing Iran airspace disruptions
May 31 surges to 96%58%
In mid-May 2026, Indian carriers Air India and IndiGo issued advisories warning passengers of flight delays and rerouting due to continued closure or restrictions of Iranian airspace amid regional tensions. These advisories indicate ongoing operational disruptions consistent with a major airspace closure or severe restrictions affecting multiple major Iranian airports.
May 22 2026
Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport
Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport after a period of closure, indicating a partial reopening of Iranian airspace. This partial reopening does not constitute a broad closure, so it does not qualify as a 'Yes' event under market criteria.
May 21 2026
Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat against US amid crackdown on protests
May 24 plunges to 21%18%
Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the United States, warning of retaliation if attacked. This diplomatic escalation contributed to market volatility, with prices fluctuating from 3% to 28% over the May 20-21 period.
May 21 2026
Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat to US amid crackdown on protests
May 21 plunges to 4%15%
Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the U.S., warning of retaliation if attacked. This heightened tensions and briefly increased the market price.
May 19 2026
Trump administration confirms El Paso airspace closure due to cartel drone threat
The Trump administration confirmed the FAA closure of El Paso airspace was due to Mexican cartel drones breaching the airspace, with the Pentagon using anti-drone laser technology to disable them. This was a U.S. airspace closure, not Iranian, and did not affect the Iran market.
May 16 2026
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport amid ceasefire
May 31 drops to 30%11%
Iran resumed commercial flights from Imam Khomeini International Airport for the first time since the war began, signaling a de-escalation and lowering market expectations for a major airspace closure by the end of May.
May 15 2026
Iran extends airspace closure amid rising protests and regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 49%12%
Iran temporarily closed its airspace to most flights except those with official permission amid domestic protests and heightened regional tensions. This closure disrupted many international flights and increased concerns about further restrictions, influencing market expectations of a major closure.
May 14 2026
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms flights back in operation
May 21 drops to 39%7%
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on Thursday morning that flights were back in operation over the country, leading to a price drop from 46% to 39% on May 21, 2026.
May 13 2026
Iran issues notice temporarily closing airspace to some flights amid protests
May 18 dips to 10%4%
Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission, amid nationwide protests and heightened tensions. This partial closure was significant but did not qualify as a major closure affecting multiple key airports broadly.
May 13 2026
Iran briefly closes airspace to most flights amid protests, then reopens
June 30 plunges to 47%29%
Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission amid nationwide protests. The closure was short-lived and flights resumed shortly after, reducing the likelihood of a major prolonged closure.
May 10 2026
Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
May 9 2026
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
May 7 2026
Iran reopens airspace and resumes commercial flights after temporary closure
May 31 jumps to 33%5%
Following the temporary closure during protests, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed flights resumed over the country, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure and causing market prices for "Yes" to decline.
May 6 2026
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms reopening of airspace after brief closure
May 18 dips to 12%2%
Following a brief closure of Iranian airspace to most flights amid protests and U.S. tensions, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed that flights resumed over the country by May 6, 2026. This reopening reduced the likelihood of a major airspace closure in the near term, impacting market prices for May 18 and May 21 outcomes.
May 5 2026
UAE partially closes airspace after Iranian missile attack
May 27 surges to 98%67%
The UAE's GCAA partially closed its airspace until at least 11 May 2026, restricting traffic to narrow approved corridors. This regional closure amplified aviation disruptions and contributed to the market's rising Yes prices.
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone attacks on UAE
May 24 surges to 96%70%
Iran launched 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones at the UAE, prompting immediate regional aviation disruptions and the UAE's partial airspace closure. This major escalation directly impacted the market's Yes probability across all outcome dates.
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting regional airspace restrictions
June 30 jumps to 64%9%
On May 4, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles and drones at the UAE, causing injuries and damage. This attack led the UAE to partially close its airspace until at least May 11, with Qatar and Oman also imposing partial restrictions. The heightened regional conflict increased the risk to commercial aviation, raising expectations of possible Iranian airspace closures.
May 2 2026
Iran Civil Aviation confirms flights back in operation after brief NOTAM
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on May 2 that flights were back in operation over the country, following the initial NOTAM that had been extended through 10:30 p.m. ET. This reopening caused the market price to drop to 0% on May 22.
May 2 2026
Iran briefly closes airspace amid protests and unrest
May 31 rises to 40%4%
Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except those with prior permission, amid widespread protests and a crackdown. This raised market expectations for a major closure, reflected in a temporary price increase for the "Yes" outcome.
May 1 2026
Iran issues NOTAM closing airspace to most flights amid protests
Iran issued a notice to pilots banning small private aircraft from flying, with exceptions for oil industry and medical flights, as protests over 2,000+ deaths intensified. This partial closure did not meet the 'major closure' threshold requiring suspension of at least two major airports.
May 1 2026
Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport
May 21 plunges to 4%34%
Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's main airport after a two-month war with the U.S. and Israel, ending the major airspace closure period. This significantly reduced the likelihood of a Yes resolution.
May 1 2026
Iran briefly issued NOTAM closing airspace to most flights
May 27 jumps to 46%7%
Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission from Iran's aviation authorities. This triggered a small price increase from 39% to 46% on May 14, 2026, before the market settled.
May 1 2026
No major airspace closure reported in Iran amid ongoing tensions
May 21 plunges to 2%17%
Despite ongoing regional tensions and previous temporary airspace restrictions in earlier months, no official Iranian aviation authority announcements or credible reports indicated a broad closure of Iranian airspace affecting commercial flights in May 2026. This lack of closure contributed to low market prices for near-term closure outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent military tensions, including large-scale US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian retaliatory actions, prompted multiple full or partial closures of Iranian airspace, including restrictions in the Tehran Flight Information Region. A ceasefire announced in early April and later extended enabled a partial reopening on April 21, with eastern sectors allowing limited overflights under strict procedures while western areas remained restricted. International aviation authorities continue to advise against operations in Iranian airspace through late May due to elevated risks from ongoing regional hostilities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential escalations, and official NOTAMs for any new broad closures that would resolve related prediction markets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
最終審査
Recent military tensions, including large-scale US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian retaliatory actions, prompted multiple full or partial closures of Iranian airspace, including restrictions in the Tehran Flight Information Region. A ceasefire announced in early April and later extended enabled a partial reopening on April 21, with eastern sectors allowing limited overflights under strict procedures while western areas remained restricted. International aviation authorities continue to advise against operations in Iranian airspace through late May due to elevated risks from ongoing regional hostilities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential escalations, and official NOTAMs for any new broad closures that would resolve related prediction markets.
Iran confirms major airspace closure affecting multiple airports
May 24 surges to 99%90%
By May 23, reports confirmed that Iran initiated a major closure of its airspace affecting commercial flights across multiple key airports, meeting the market's criteria for a broad suspension not due to weather. This confirmation caused the market prices for all resolution dates to jump to near 100%.
May 22 2026
Indian airlines issue advisories amid ongoing Iran airspace disruptions
May 31 surges to 96%58%
In mid-May 2026, Indian carriers Air India and IndiGo issued advisories warning passengers of flight delays and rerouting due to continued closure or restrictions of Iranian airspace amid regional tensions. These advisories indicate ongoing operational disruptions consistent with a major airspace closure or severe restrictions affecting multiple major Iranian airports.
May 22 2026
Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport
Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport after a period of closure, indicating a partial reopening of Iranian airspace. This partial reopening does not constitute a broad closure, so it does not qualify as a 'Yes' event under market criteria.
May 21 2026
Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat against US amid crackdown on protests
May 24 plunges to 21%18%
Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the United States, warning of retaliation if attacked. This diplomatic escalation contributed to market volatility, with prices fluctuating from 3% to 28% over the May 20-21 period.
May 21 2026
Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat to US amid crackdown on protests
May 21 plunges to 4%15%
Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the U.S., warning of retaliation if attacked. This heightened tensions and briefly increased the market price.
May 19 2026
Trump administration confirms El Paso airspace closure due to cartel drone threat
The Trump administration confirmed the FAA closure of El Paso airspace was due to Mexican cartel drones breaching the airspace, with the Pentagon using anti-drone laser technology to disable them. This was a U.S. airspace closure, not Iranian, and did not affect the Iran market.
May 16 2026
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport amid ceasefire
May 31 drops to 30%11%
Iran resumed commercial flights from Imam Khomeini International Airport for the first time since the war began, signaling a de-escalation and lowering market expectations for a major airspace closure by the end of May.
May 15 2026
Iran extends airspace closure amid rising protests and regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 49%12%
Iran temporarily closed its airspace to most flights except those with official permission amid domestic protests and heightened regional tensions. This closure disrupted many international flights and increased concerns about further restrictions, influencing market expectations of a major closure.
May 14 2026
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms flights back in operation
May 21 drops to 39%7%
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on Thursday morning that flights were back in operation over the country, leading to a price drop from 46% to 39% on May 21, 2026.
May 13 2026
Iran issues notice temporarily closing airspace to some flights amid protests
May 18 dips to 10%4%
Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission, amid nationwide protests and heightened tensions. This partial closure was significant but did not qualify as a major closure affecting multiple key airports broadly.
May 13 2026
Iran briefly closes airspace to most flights amid protests, then reopens
June 30 plunges to 47%29%
Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission amid nationwide protests. The closure was short-lived and flights resumed shortly after, reducing the likelihood of a major prolonged closure.
May 10 2026
Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
May 9 2026
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
May 7 2026
Iran reopens airspace and resumes commercial flights after temporary closure
May 31 jumps to 33%5%
Following the temporary closure during protests, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed flights resumed over the country, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure and causing market prices for "Yes" to decline.
May 6 2026
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms reopening of airspace after brief closure
May 18 dips to 12%2%
Following a brief closure of Iranian airspace to most flights amid protests and U.S. tensions, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed that flights resumed over the country by May 6, 2026. This reopening reduced the likelihood of a major airspace closure in the near term, impacting market prices for May 18 and May 21 outcomes.
May 5 2026
UAE partially closes airspace after Iranian missile attack
May 27 surges to 98%67%
The UAE's GCAA partially closed its airspace until at least 11 May 2026, restricting traffic to narrow approved corridors. This regional closure amplified aviation disruptions and contributed to the market's rising Yes prices.
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone attacks on UAE
May 24 surges to 96%70%
Iran launched 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones at the UAE, prompting immediate regional aviation disruptions and the UAE's partial airspace closure. This major escalation directly impacted the market's Yes probability across all outcome dates.
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting regional airspace restrictions
June 30 jumps to 64%9%
On May 4, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles and drones at the UAE, causing injuries and damage. This attack led the UAE to partially close its airspace until at least May 11, with Qatar and Oman also imposing partial restrictions. The heightened regional conflict increased the risk to commercial aviation, raising expectations of possible Iranian airspace closures.
May 2 2026
Iran Civil Aviation confirms flights back in operation after brief NOTAM
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on May 2 that flights were back in operation over the country, following the initial NOTAM that had been extended through 10:30 p.m. ET. This reopening caused the market price to drop to 0% on May 22.
May 2 2026
Iran briefly closes airspace amid protests and unrest
May 31 rises to 40%4%
Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except those with prior permission, amid widespread protests and a crackdown. This raised market expectations for a major closure, reflected in a temporary price increase for the "Yes" outcome.
May 1 2026
Iran issues NOTAM closing airspace to most flights amid protests
Iran issued a notice to pilots banning small private aircraft from flying, with exceptions for oil industry and medical flights, as protests over 2,000+ deaths intensified. This partial closure did not meet the 'major closure' threshold requiring suspension of at least two major airports.
May 1 2026
Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport
May 21 plunges to 4%34%
Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's main airport after a two-month war with the U.S. and Israel, ending the major airspace closure period. This significantly reduced the likelihood of a Yes resolution.
May 1 2026
Iran briefly issued NOTAM closing airspace to most flights
May 27 jumps to 46%7%
Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission from Iran's aviation authorities. This triggered a small price increase from 39% to 46% on May 14, 2026, before the market settled.
May 1 2026
No major airspace closure reported in Iran amid ongoing tensions
May 21 plunges to 2%17%
Despite ongoing regional tensions and previous temporary airspace restrictions in earlier months, no official Iranian aviation authority announcements or credible reports indicated a broad closure of Iranian airspace affecting commercial flights in May 2026. This lack of closure contributed to low market prices for near-term closure outcomes.
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