The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026, and extended by President Trump pending a unified Iranian proposal, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on continuation through near-term dates. Pakistan-mediated talks have produced counterproposals on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and Strait of Hormuz access, yet recent exchanges show persistent gaps, with the US rejecting elements of Tehran's 14-point framework and describing the truce as on "life support." Minor violations, including Iranian-backed drone launches toward Gulf targets and limited naval incidents, have not triggered broad resumption of strikes, while both sides continue indirect diplomacy. Upcoming signals from Washington or Tehran on blockade adjustments or renewed negotiations could quickly shift probabilities if escalation risks rise.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
$356,682 Vol.
May 20
96%
May 21
87%
May 22
76%
May 24
67%
May 27
55%
May 31
46%
June 7
39%
June 15
37%
June 30
35%
July 31
30%
December 31
24%
$356,682 Vol.
May 20
$101,494 Vol.
96%
May 21
$109,490 Vol.
87%
May 22
$53,553 Vol.
76%
May 24
$28,874 Vol.
67%
May 27
$21,121 Vol.
55%
May 31
$15,055 Vol.
46%
June 7
$4,662 Vol.
39%
June 15
$7,353 Vol.
37%
June 30
$7,749 Vol.
35%
July 31
$6,159 Vol.
30%
December 31
$7,987 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026, and extended by President Trump pending a unified Iranian proposal, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on continuation through near-term dates. Pakistan-mediated talks have produced counterproposals on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and Strait of Hormuz access, yet recent exchanges show persistent gaps, with the US rejecting elements of Tehran's 14-point framework and describing the truce as on "life support." Minor violations, including Iranian-backed drone launches toward Gulf targets and limited naval incidents, have not triggered broad resumption of strikes, while both sides continue indirect diplomacy. Upcoming signals from Washington or Tehran on blockade adjustments or renewed negotiations could quickly shift probabilities if escalation risks rise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
音量
$356,682マーケット開始日
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026, and extended by President Trump pending a unified Iranian proposal, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on continuation through near-term dates. Pakistan-mediated talks have produced counterproposals on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and Strait of Hormuz access, yet recent exchanges show persistent gaps, with the US rejecting elements of Tehran's 14-point framework and describing the truce as on "life support." Minor violations, including Iranian-backed drone launches toward Gulf targets and limited naval incidents, have not triggered broad resumption of strikes, while both sides continue indirect diplomacy. Upcoming signals from Washington or Tehran on blockade adjustments or renewed negotiations could quickly shift probabilities if escalation risks rise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$356,682マーケット開始日
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026, and extended by President Trump pending a unified Iranian proposal, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on continuation through near-term dates. Pakistan-mediated talks have produced counterproposals on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and Strait of Hormuz access, yet recent exchanges show persistent gaps, with the US rejecting elements of Tehran's 14-point framework and describing the truce as on "life support." Minor violations, including Iranian-backed drone launches toward Gulf targets and limited naval incidents, have not triggered broad resumption of strikes, while both sides continue indirect diplomacy. Upcoming signals from Washington or Tehran on blockade adjustments or renewed negotiations could quickly shift probabilities if escalation risks rise.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問