Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to 40-59 transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the week of May 18, aligning with established weekly maritime traffic volumes under routine Gulf oil export operations. Stable navigation conditions, absent major incidents or restrictions on commercial vessels, have sustained this baseline range amid ongoing regional diplomacy. Historical patterns of tanker and cargo movements between producers in the Persian Gulf and global markets reinforce the positioning. Disruptions from escalated tensions involving Iran, sudden military activity near key lanes, or formal transit restrictions could still shift outcomes, though no such verified developments have occurred.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日40-59 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
60-79 <1%
$224,343 Vol.
$224,343 Vol.
2026/05/24
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
Yes
60-79
No
80+
No
40-59 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
60-79 <1%
$224,343 Vol.
$224,343 Vol.
2026/05/24
<20
$50,025 Vol.
No
20-39
$31,238 Vol.
No
40-59
$30,019 Vol.
Yes
60-79
$37,797 Vol.
No
80+
$75,264 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to 40-59 transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the week of May 18, aligning with established weekly maritime traffic volumes under routine Gulf oil export operations. Stable navigation conditions, absent major incidents or restrictions on commercial vessels, have sustained this baseline range amid ongoing regional diplomacy. Historical patterns of tanker and cargo movements between producers in the Persian Gulf and global markets reinforce the positioning. Disruptions from escalated tensions involving Iran, sudden military activity near key lanes, or formal transit restrictions could still shift outcomes, though no such verified developments have occurred.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
音量
$224,343終了日
2026/05/24マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to 40-59 transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the week of May 18, aligning with established weekly maritime traffic volumes under routine Gulf oil export operations. Stable navigation conditions, absent major incidents or restrictions on commercial vessels, have sustained this baseline range amid ongoing regional diplomacy. Historical patterns of tanker and cargo movements between producers in the Persian Gulf and global markets reinforce the positioning. Disruptions from escalated tensions involving Iran, sudden military activity near key lanes, or formal transit restrictions could still shift outcomes, though no such verified developments have occurred.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$224,343終了日
2026/05/24マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to 40-59 transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the week of May 18, aligning with established weekly maritime traffic volumes under routine Gulf oil export operations. Stable navigation conditions, absent major incidents or restrictions on commercial vessels, have sustained this baseline range amid ongoing regional diplomacy. Historical patterns of tanker and cargo movements between producers in the Persian Gulf and global markets reinforce the positioning. Disruptions from escalated tensions involving Iran, sudden military activity near key lanes, or formal transit restrictions could still shift outcomes, though no such verified developments have occurred.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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