Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% chance of Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal levels by May 31, reflecting cautious optimism amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began with Iran's February 28 blockade, which slashed daily transits from peacetime averages of around 135 vessels to single digits. A two-week ceasefire starting April 8 briefly boosted activity to 20-plus ships per day, but US naval patrols enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports from April 13—allowing non-Iranian traffic through the strait itself—have kept volumes at a fraction of normal, with 11 commercial ships recorded on April 15 amid high insurance costs and deterrence. Economic pressures on global energy trade and potential ceasefire extensions or diplomatic talks could drive normalization, though escalation risks persist ahead of the truce's April 22 expiration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$882,173 Vol.
$882,173 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$882,173 Vol.
$882,173 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% chance of Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal levels by May 31, reflecting cautious optimism amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began with Iran's February 28 blockade, which slashed daily transits from peacetime averages of around 135 vessels to single digits. A two-week ceasefire starting April 8 briefly boosted activity to 20-plus ships per day, but US naval patrols enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports from April 13—allowing non-Iranian traffic through the strait itself—have kept volumes at a fraction of normal, with 11 commercial ships recorded on April 15 amid high insurance costs and deterrence. Economic pressures on global energy trade and potential ceasefire extensions or diplomatic talks could drive normalization, though escalation risks persist ahead of the truce's April 22 expiration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volume
$882,173End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% chance of Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal levels by May 31, reflecting cautious optimism amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began with Iran's February 28 blockade, which slashed daily transits from peacetime averages of around 135 vessels to single digits. A two-week ceasefire starting April 8 briefly boosted activity to 20-plus ships per day, but US naval patrols enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports from April 13—allowing non-Iranian traffic through the strait itself—have kept volumes at a fraction of normal, with 11 commercial ships recorded on April 15 amid high insurance costs and deterrence. Economic pressures on global energy trade and potential ceasefire extensions or diplomatic talks could drive normalization, though escalation risks persist ahead of the truce's April 22 expiration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$883,149End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% chance of Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal levels by May 31, reflecting cautious optimism amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began with Iran's February 28 blockade, which slashed daily transits from peacetime averages of around 135 vessels to single digits. A two-week ceasefire starting April 8 briefly boosted activity to 20-plus ships per day, but US naval patrols enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports from April 13—allowing non-Iranian traffic through the strait itself—have kept volumes at a fraction of normal, with 11 commercial ships recorded on April 15 amid high insurance costs and deterrence. Economic pressures on global energy trade and potential ceasefire extensions or diplomatic talks could drive normalization, though escalation risks persist ahead of the truce's April 22 expiration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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