Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, including renewed threats following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in February-March 2026, have sustained severe disruptions to Suez Canal transits, with container ship passages remaining at depressed levels of around 150-215 per month in early 2026 per Suez Canal Authority and Alphaliner data—far below pre-crisis norms exceeding 800 monthly. Year-to-date figures through April position H1 totals well under 1,000, making the 2,000 threshold mathematically unattainable barring an unprecedented surge in the final six weeks. Trader consensus at 99.5% "No" reflects carriers' persistent rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated insurance costs and security risks, with no imminent ceasefire negotiations or naval escalations signaling reversal. Only a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or comprehensive de-escalation could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
$137,556 Vol.
$137,556 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$137,556 Vol.
$137,556 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, including renewed threats following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in February-March 2026, have sustained severe disruptions to Suez Canal transits, with container ship passages remaining at depressed levels of around 150-215 per month in early 2026 per Suez Canal Authority and Alphaliner data—far below pre-crisis norms exceeding 800 monthly. Year-to-date figures through April position H1 totals well under 1,000, making the 2,000 threshold mathematically unattainable barring an unprecedented surge in the final six weeks. Trader consensus at 99.5% "No" reflects carriers' persistent rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated insurance costs and security risks, with no imminent ceasefire negotiations or naval escalations signaling reversal. Only a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or comprehensive de-escalation could shift odds.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$137,556End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, including renewed threats following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in February-March 2026, have sustained severe disruptions to Suez Canal transits, with container ship passages remaining at depressed levels of around 150-215 per month in early 2026 per Suez Canal Authority and Alphaliner data—far below pre-crisis norms exceeding 800 monthly. Year-to-date figures through April position H1 totals well under 1,000, making the 2,000 threshold mathematically unattainable barring an unprecedented surge in the final six weeks. Trader consensus at 99.5% "No" reflects carriers' persistent rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated insurance costs and security risks, with no imminent ceasefire negotiations or naval escalations signaling reversal. Only a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or comprehensive de-escalation could shift odds.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
Volume
$137,556End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, including renewed threats following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in February-March 2026, have sustained severe disruptions to Suez Canal transits, with container ship passages remaining at depressed levels of around 150-215 per month in early 2026 per Suez Canal Authority and Alphaliner data—far below pre-crisis norms exceeding 800 monthly. Year-to-date figures through April position H1 totals well under 1,000, making the 2,000 threshold mathematically unattainable barring an unprecedented surge in the final six weeks. Trader consensus at 99.5% "No" reflects carriers' persistent rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated insurance costs and security risks, with no imminent ceasefire negotiations or naval escalations signaling reversal. Only a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or comprehensive de-escalation could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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