Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain implied probability (99.7%) of fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by the ongoing Red Sea crisis where Houthi attacks have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January's mere 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—amid tentative early returns that stalled after renewed threats in February and March, with transits remaining 60% below pre-crisis levels. Overall Q1 volumes likely totaled under 500, per industry tracking. Tail risks include an improbable rapid ceasefire enabling a surge, though escalating Iran-Houthi tensions as of late March diminish this prospect ahead of SCA's official Q1 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
$52,381 Vol.
$52,381 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$52,381 Vol.
$52,381 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain implied probability (99.7%) of fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by the ongoing Red Sea crisis where Houthi attacks have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January's mere 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—amid tentative early returns that stalled after renewed threats in February and March, with transits remaining 60% below pre-crisis levels. Overall Q1 volumes likely totaled under 500, per industry tracking. Tail risks include an improbable rapid ceasefire enabling a surge, though escalating Iran-Houthi tensions as of late March diminish this prospect ahead of SCA's official Q1 resolution.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$52,381End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain implied probability (99.7%) of fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by the ongoing Red Sea crisis where Houthi attacks have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January's mere 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—amid tentative early returns that stalled after renewed threats in February and March, with transits remaining 60% below pre-crisis levels. Overall Q1 volumes likely totaled under 500, per industry tracking. Tail risks include an improbable rapid ceasefire enabling a surge, though escalating Iran-Houthi tensions as of late March diminish this prospect ahead of SCA's official Q1 resolution.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Volume
$52,381End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain implied probability (99.7%) of fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by the ongoing Red Sea crisis where Houthi attacks have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January's mere 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—amid tentative early returns that stalled after renewed threats in February and March, with transits remaining 60% below pre-crisis levels. Overall Q1 volumes likely totaled under 500, per industry tracking. Tail risks include an improbable rapid ceasefire enabling a surge, though escalating Iran-Houthi tensions as of late March diminish this prospect ahead of SCA's official Q1 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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