Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by official Suez Canal Authority data confirming sharply depressed volumes—approximately 150-230 monthly transits in January and February, projecting a Q1 total well below 700 amid persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi attacks. Major carriers like CMA CGM continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, prioritizing safety over shorter transit times despite elevated freight rates from diversions. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects no broad return to Suez routing, with January marking the weakest month in a decade. Tail risks include a disputed final March tally or abrupt geopolitical de-escalation retroactively questioning counts, though such scenarios appear negligible given authoritative reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
$57,577 Vol.
$57,577 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$57,577 Vol.
$57,577 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by official Suez Canal Authority data confirming sharply depressed volumes—approximately 150-230 monthly transits in January and February, projecting a Q1 total well below 700 amid persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi attacks. Major carriers like CMA CGM continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, prioritizing safety over shorter transit times despite elevated freight rates from diversions. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects no broad return to Suez routing, with January marking the weakest month in a decade. Tail risks include a disputed final March tally or abrupt geopolitical de-escalation retroactively questioning counts, though such scenarios appear negligible given authoritative reporting.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$57,577End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by official Suez Canal Authority data confirming sharply depressed volumes—approximately 150-230 monthly transits in January and February, projecting a Q1 total well below 700 amid persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi attacks. Major carriers like CMA CGM continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, prioritizing safety over shorter transit times despite elevated freight rates from diversions. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects no broad return to Suez routing, with January marking the weakest month in a decade. Tail risks include a disputed final March tally or abrupt geopolitical de-escalation retroactively questioning counts, though such scenarios appear negligible given authoritative reporting.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Volume
$57,577End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by official Suez Canal Authority data confirming sharply depressed volumes—approximately 150-230 monthly transits in January and February, projecting a Q1 total well below 700 amid persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi attacks. Major carriers like CMA CGM continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, prioritizing safety over shorter transit times despite elevated freight rates from diversions. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects no broad return to Suez routing, with January marking the weakest month in a decade. Tail risks include a disputed final March tally or abrupt geopolitical de-escalation retroactively questioning counts, though such scenarios appear negligible given authoritative reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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