Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations drive the 82.5% implied probability on "No," as February 26 talks in Geneva concluded without agreement despite U.S. demands for Iran to ship its highly enriched uranium stockpile directly to the United States, alongside facility dismantlement and permanent enrichment curbs. Iranian officials rejected these terms, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noting no zero-enrichment mandate but highlighting irreconcilable gaps. A March 24 analysis detailed the talks' breakdown due to U.S. inflexibility, followed by March 11 reports of ill-prepared negotiators; no follow-up rounds are scheduled ahead of the May 31 deadline. Amid ongoing sanctions, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and U.S. threats of escalation, traders see slim odds of diplomatic capitulation, echoing JCPOA-era hurdles where uranium transfers routed through third parties like Russia.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
NEW
$20,918 Vol.
NEW
$20,918 Vol.
May 31, 2026
NEW
$20,918 Vol.
NEW
$20,918 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations drive the 82.5% implied probability on "No," as February 26 talks in Geneva concluded without agreement despite U.S. demands for Iran to ship its highly enriched uranium stockpile directly to the United States, alongside facility dismantlement and permanent enrichment curbs. Iranian officials rejected these terms, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noting no zero-enrichment mandate but highlighting irreconcilable gaps. A March 24 analysis detailed the talks' breakdown due to U.S. inflexibility, followed by March 11 reports of ill-prepared negotiators; no follow-up rounds are scheduled ahead of the May 31 deadline. Amid ongoing sanctions, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and U.S. threats of escalation, traders see slim odds of diplomatic capitulation, echoing JCPOA-era hurdles where uranium transfers routed through third parties like Russia.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$20,918End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations drive the 82.5% implied probability on "No," as February 26 talks in Geneva concluded without agreement despite U.S. demands for Iran to ship its highly enriched uranium stockpile directly to the United States, alongside facility dismantlement and permanent enrichment curbs. Iranian officials rejected these terms, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noting no zero-enrichment mandate but highlighting irreconcilable gaps. A March 24 analysis detailed the talks' breakdown due to U.S. inflexibility, followed by March 11 reports of ill-prepared negotiators; no follow-up rounds are scheduled ahead of the May 31 deadline. Amid ongoing sanctions, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and U.S. threats of escalation, traders see slim odds of diplomatic capitulation, echoing JCPOA-era hurdles where uranium transfers routed through third parties like Russia.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,001End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations drive the 82.5% implied probability on "No," as February 26 talks in Geneva concluded without agreement despite U.S. demands for Iran to ship its highly enriched uranium stockpile directly to the United States, alongside facility dismantlement and permanent enrichment curbs. Iranian officials rejected these terms, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noting no zero-enrichment mandate but highlighting irreconcilable gaps. A March 24 analysis detailed the talks' breakdown due to U.S. inflexibility, followed by March 11 reports of ill-prepared negotiators; no follow-up rounds are scheduled ahead of the May 31 deadline. Amid ongoing sanctions, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and U.S. threats of escalation, traders see slim odds of diplomatic capitulation, echoing JCPOA-era hurdles where uranium transfers routed through third parties like Russia.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions