Market icon
Economy·Iran

Will gas hit __ by end of April?

Market icon
Economy·Iran

Will gas hit __ by end of April?

Apr 30

Apr 30

NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$4,897 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $5.00

$140 Vol.

9%

↑ $4.75

$130 Vol.

15%

↑ $4.50

$219 Vol.

50%

↑ $4.25

$414 Vol.

73%

↑ $4.15

$40 Vol.

87%

↑ $4.05

$2,132 Vol.

99%

↓ $3.95

$325 Vol.

82%

↓ $3.85

$1,106 Vol.

53%

↓ $3.75

$39 Vol.

30%

↓ $3.50

$0 Vol.

38%

↓ $3.25

$0 Vol.

11%

↓ $3.00

$351 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".US national average gasoline prices have surged to $4.02 per gallon for regular unleaded as of early April 2026—the highest since 2022—driven by a 35% monthly increase tied to Middle East supply disruptions from the escalating Iran conflict and crude oil topping $102 per barrel. Spring break travel demand and seasonal refinery maintenance have amplified the rally, with warmer weather boosting road trips ahead of peak summer driving season. Key factors include ongoing geopolitical tensions, potential further oil supply risks, and EIA projections for Brent crude remaining above $95/bbl through May. Traders eye late-month demand spikes and any de-escalation signals that could temper prices before end-of-April resolution based on AAA weekly averages.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$4,897
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".US national average gasoline prices have surged to $4.02 per gallon for regular unleaded as of early April 2026—the highest since 2022—driven by a 35% monthly increase tied to Middle East supply disruptions from the escalating Iran conflict and crude oil topping $102 per barrel. Spring break travel demand and seasonal refinery maintenance have amplified the rally, with warmer weather boosting road trips ahead of peak summer driving season. Key factors include ongoing geopolitical tensions, potential further oil supply risks, and EIA projections for Brent crude remaining above $95/bbl through May. Traders eye late-month demand spikes and any de-escalation signals that could temper prices before end-of-April resolution based on AAA weekly averages.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$4,897
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit __ by end of April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $4.05" at 99%, followed by "↑ $4.15" at 87%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will gas hit __ by end of April?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will gas hit __ by end of April?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas hit __ by end of April?" is "↑ $4.05" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $4.15" at 87%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit __ by end of April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.