Trader consensus favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31 at 56%, reflecting a lull in escalatory diplomatic actions despite persistent Middle East tensions. South Africa's late January declaration of Israel's chargé d'affaires in Pretoria as persona non grata—ordering his departure within 72 hours over alleged sovereignty violations—prompted Israeli retaliation but did not involve a full ambassador and has not sparked copycat moves. Recent calls from British MPs in August 2025 and Iran's IRGC incentives in March for expulsions remain rhetorical, with no verified follow-through. Governments weigh retaliation risks, economic ties, and alliance pressures amid Gaza operations and Iran confrontations, keeping probabilities closely contested ahead of year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
$19,449 Vol.
$19,449 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$19,449 Vol.
$19,449 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31 at 56%, reflecting a lull in escalatory diplomatic actions despite persistent Middle East tensions. South Africa's late January declaration of Israel's chargé d'affaires in Pretoria as persona non grata—ordering his departure within 72 hours over alleged sovereignty violations—prompted Israeli retaliation but did not involve a full ambassador and has not sparked copycat moves. Recent calls from British MPs in August 2025 and Iran's IRGC incentives in March for expulsions remain rhetorical, with no verified follow-through. Governments weigh retaliation risks, economic ties, and alliance pressures amid Gaza operations and Iran confrontations, keeping probabilities closely contested ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$19,449End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31 at 56%, reflecting a lull in escalatory diplomatic actions despite persistent Middle East tensions. South Africa's late January declaration of Israel's chargé d'affaires in Pretoria as persona non grata—ordering his departure within 72 hours over alleged sovereignty violations—prompted Israeli retaliation but did not involve a full ambassador and has not sparked copycat moves. Recent calls from British MPs in August 2025 and Iran's IRGC incentives in March for expulsions remain rhetorical, with no verified follow-through. Governments weigh retaliation risks, economic ties, and alliance pressures amid Gaza operations and Iran confrontations, keeping probabilities closely contested ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,449End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31 at 56%, reflecting a lull in escalatory diplomatic actions despite persistent Middle East tensions. South Africa's late January declaration of Israel's chargé d'affaires in Pretoria as persona non grata—ordering his departure within 72 hours over alleged sovereignty violations—prompted Israeli retaliation but did not involve a full ambassador and has not sparked copycat moves. Recent calls from British MPs in August 2025 and Iran's IRGC incentives in March for expulsions remain rhetorical, with no verified follow-through. Governments weigh retaliation risks, economic ties, and alliance pressures amid Gaza operations and Iran confrontations, keeping probabilities closely contested ahead of year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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