US-mediated talks under the Board of Peace roadmap have produced Hamas signals of willingness to surrender heavy weapons in phases, but the group conditions any steps on Israeli withdrawal and security guarantees, while rejecting full disarmament language outright. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected this sequencing, insisting on complete decommissioning of all arms before any troop pullback or further concessions, amid continued targeted strikes and operations along the Yellow Line. Recent US envoy meetings in Cairo aim to revive the stalled 15-point plan, yet progress remains blocked by verification disputes and demands involving other armed factions. Israeli elections scheduled for late October add domestic pressure on Netanyahu, while Hamas faces internal strains and limited resupply under sustained military pressure. These sequencing and verification gaps remain the dominant factors shaping trader assessments of near-term agreement prospects.