Ongoing disagreements over sequencing continue to limit prospects for a formal Hamas disarmament commitment by year-end. Hamas has endorsed the principle of phased decommissioning under the US-backed Board of Peace framework, yet conditions any steps on prior or concurrent Israeli withdrawal and fulfillment of ceasefire obligations. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu maintains that full, verifiable disarmament of all weapons must precede any further troop redeployments beyond current lines, a stance reinforced ahead of Israel's late-October elections. Recent diplomatic efforts, including US envoy meetings in Cairo, have not bridged this gap, leaving implementation stalled despite the 2025 ceasefire. Traders price low probabilities accordingly, reflecting the entrenched positions and absence of an unconditional public announcement from Hamas leadership.