Israel's October 9, 2026, rejection of the U.S.-backed 15-point Gaza roadmap, coupled with Prime Minister Netanyahu's insistence on full Hamas disarmament before any further IDF withdrawal from the Yellow Line, has reinforced the deadlock. Hamas maintains conditional readiness under the Board of Peace framework announced in July 2026, tying phased decommissioning of heavy weapons and tunnels to Israeli pullback, reconstruction aid, and progress toward Palestinian statehood, while rejecting immediate or unconditional surrender of its arsenal. Recent strikes, Hamas recruitment and tunnel activity in remaining areas, and stalled International Stabilization Force deployment underscore implementation barriers. Traders assess low near-term odds of an unconditional Hamas agreement by any fixed deadline, given these sequencing disputes and the absence of verified compliance steps since the October 2025 ceasefire. Upcoming diplomatic pressure from mediators or U.S. elections could influence movement.