**Recent developments center on the July 2026 U.S.-backed Board of Peace roadmap, under which Hamas conditionally accepted a phased disarmament framework tied to Israeli withdrawals and governance transfers to a National Committee, with weapons inventoried and stored under Palestinian oversight rather than handed to Israel.** Israel has remained skeptical, with Prime Minister Netanyahu stating that no withdrawal will occur until Hamas is fully disarmed and no longer poses a threat. Since the framework's announcement, implementation has stalled amid mutual preconditions, ongoing ceasefire violations, and Israeli targeted strikes in September 2026 against Hamas figures and infrastructure. Traders assess the probability of a formal Hamas agreement by year-end against these reciprocal barriers, historical patterns of negotiation breakdowns, and scheduled diplomatic or electoral catalysts that could shift positions on either side.