Market icon
Politics·Ukraine

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Ukraine

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.5% for Nord Stream pipelines resuming gas flows before 2027, driven by unrepaired sabotage damage from 2022 explosions that destroyed three of four lines, EU sanctions enacted July 2025 explicitly banning their direct or indirect use, and expired Danish preservation permits from September 2025 halting any repair momentum. Recent Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's March 27 claim of U.S. interest in takeover sparked brief speculation amid Ukraine war diplomacy, but German officials and EU energy diversification to LNG imports signal firm opposition, with ongoing sabotage probes—including a February Spiegel report on early CIA awareness—adding legal hurdles. The December 31, 2026, resolution deadline leaves scant time for technical fixes, sanction relief, or geopolitical shifts like a ceasefire.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Volume
$5,569
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.5% for Nord Stream pipelines resuming gas flows before 2027, driven by unrepaired sabotage damage from 2022 explosions that destroyed three of four lines, EU sanctions enacted July 2025 explicitly banning their direct or indirect use, and expired Danish preservation permits from September 2025 halting any repair momentum. Recent Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's March 27 claim of U.S. interest in takeover sparked brief speculation amid Ukraine war diplomacy, but German officials and EU energy diversification to LNG imports signal firm opposition, with ongoing sabotage probes—including a February Spiegel report on early CIA awareness—adding legal hurdles. The December 31, 2026, resolution deadline leaves scant time for technical fixes, sanction relief, or geopolitical shifts like a ceasefire.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Volume
$5,569
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.