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Geopolitics·Trump

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Trump

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$137,512 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$137,512 Vol.

Polymarket

India

$34,156 Vol.

25%

Brazil

$2,777 Vol.

24%

Mexico

$0 Vol.

23%

United Kingdom

$343 Vol.

23%

Israel

$0 Vol.

22%

Pakistan

$67,110 Vol.

21%

Canada

$0 Vol.

20%

Japan

$4,217 Vol.

19%

Taiwan

$0 Vol.

19%

Indonesia

$0 Vol.

18%

European Union

$3,913 Vol.

16%

Russia

$1,765 Vol.

16%

South Korea

$0 Vol.

15%

South Africa

$0 Vol.

15%

Argentina

$18,424 Vol.

15%

Vietnam

$4,806 Vol.

14%

Australia

$0 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President-elect Donald Trump's post-election tariff threats—25% on Mexico and Canada unless they curb migration and fentanyl, and up to 60% on China—have prompted immediate diplomatic overtures, framing potential new bilateral trade deals before 2027 as negotiation incentives under his America First agenda. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum committed to border security enhancements, while Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau affirmed cooperation talks. Trump has signaled interest in pacts with the UK (post-Brexit), India (following a call with PM Narendra Modi), Japan, and Argentina, aiming to diversify supply chains. USTR nominee Jamieson Greer's Senate confirmation and January 20, 2025, inauguration loom as catalysts, with first-100-days executive actions likely to accelerate deal-making amid escalating global trade tensions.

President-elect Donald Trump's post-election tariff threats—25% on Mexico and Canada unless they curb migration and fentanyl, and up to 60% on China—have prompted immediate diplomatic overtures, framing potential new bilateral trade deals before 2027 as negotiation incentives under his America First agenda. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum committed to border security enhancements, while Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau affirmed cooperation talks. Trump has signaled interest in pacts with the UK (post-Brexit), India (following a call with PM Narendra Modi), Japan, and Argentina, aiming to diversify supply chains. USTR nominee Jamieson Greer's Senate confirmation and January 20, 2025, inauguration loom as catalysts, with first-100-days executive actions likely to accelerate deal-making amid escalating global trade tensions.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President-elect Donald Trump's post-election tariff threats—25% on Mexico and Canada unless they curb migration and fentanyl, and up to 60% on China—have prompted immediate diplomatic overtures, framing potential new bilateral trade deals before 2027 as negotiation incentives under his America First agenda. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum committed to border security enhancements, while Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau affirmed cooperation talks. Trump has signaled interest in pacts with the UK (post-Brexit), India (following a call with PM Narendra Modi), Japan, and Argentina, aiming to diversify supply chains. USTR nominee Jamieson Greer's Senate confirmation and January 20, 2025, inauguration loom as catalysts, with first-100-days executive actions likely to accelerate deal-making amid escalating global trade tensions.

President-elect Donald Trump's post-election tariff threats—25% on Mexico and Canada unless they curb migration and fentanyl, and up to 60% on China—have prompted immediate diplomatic overtures, framing potential new bilateral trade deals before 2027 as negotiation incentives under his America First agenda. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum committed to border security enhancements, while Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau affirmed cooperation talks. Trump has signaled interest in pacts with the UK (post-Brexit), India (following a call with PM Narendra Modi), Japan, and Argentina, aiming to diversify supply chains. USTR nominee Jamieson Greer's Senate confirmation and January 20, 2025, inauguration loom as catalysts, with first-100-days executive actions likely to accelerate deal-making amid escalating global trade tensions.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "India" at 25%, followed by "Brazil" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" has generated $137.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is "India" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Brazil" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.