Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads market pricing as the Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, supported by established party infrastructure and broad name recognition ahead of the October 4 first round. Flávio Bolsonaro’s position reflects consolidation of right-wing support following his father’s endorsement, though recent audio leaks linking the senator to a disgraced banker have added uncertainty. Multiple conservative governors, including Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado, continue to split that vote, while Renan Santos draws measurable backing in fragmented scenarios. Recent national polls showing the top two in statistical ties in runoff simulations underscore the close contest and two-round dynamics driving current trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Former President Jair Bolsonaro hospitalized briefly after prison fall
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 25%18%
Jair Bolsonaro was granted a brief leave from prison to undergo medical tests after falling from his bed, raising concerns about his health and impacting his presidential election prospects. This event likely contributed to a drop in his market probability from 43% to 25%.
Electoral Authority poll lifts Renan Santos to double‑digit support in Minas Gerais
Renan Santos rises to 13%4%
A regional poll released by the Superior Electoral Court showed Renan Santos jumping from 7 % to 9 % in Minas Gerais, sparking a surge to 13 % in the market as he emerged as a dark‑horse candidate.
Judge orders house arrest for 10 convicted in Bolsonaro coup plot
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
A Brazilian judge issued house arrest orders for 10 people convicted in the Bolsonaro coup plot, signaling ongoing legal developments that kept Bolsonaro's political influence under scrutiny and affected market sentiment.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s price drops 10 points after controversial interview
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
An interview in which Flávio made inflammatory remarks led to a rapid decline from 45 % to 33 %, reflecting voter backlash.
Analysis highlights Brazil's polarized 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
An opinion piece emphasized the deep polarization in Brazil's 2026 election, with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro as main contenders, reflecting the political landscape that influenced market perceptions and candidate support.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.
Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45 % after rally in São Paulo
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%7%
A large rally in São Paulo energized Flávio’s base, pushing his price to a market high before a slight correction later in May.
Brazil Supreme Court orders Bolsonaro's transfer to larger prison cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 38%2%
The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing judicial management of his incarceration and health, which maintained political uncertainty around Bolsonaro's influence and his son's campaign.
Supreme Court orders probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamatory posts
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 39%1%
Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized an investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements against Lula, increasing political tensions and impacting market perceptions of Bolsonaro's candidacy.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad rises to 4%1%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, slightly increasing his political visibility and market support ahead of the presidential election.
Lula plans Supreme Court nomination after historic defeat, sources say
Lula is expected to run for his fourth non-consecutive term after being the first Brazilian leader in 132 years to have a top court nominee rejected by Congress.
Brazilian Congress overrides Lula's veto, enabling sentence reduction for Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 38%19%
The Brazilian Congress overrode President Lula's veto on a law reducing prison sentences for sedition, benefiting former President Jair Bolsonaro and energizing Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, which was reflected in his rising market support.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in Brasília hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%6%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving a 27-year prison sentence, highlighting his ongoing health issues and legal troubles, which influenced market perceptions of his political future and indirectly affected his son Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy.
Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 41%2%
A Supreme Court order moved Bolsonaro to a larger cell with an outdoor area, viewed as a concession to his health demands. The news boosted Flávio Bolsonaro’s odds (from 39 % to 41 %) as it suggested the family’s legal team was gaining small victories, while Lula’s price slipped marginally.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%
The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which was seen as a response to his health and legal situation, affecting market perceptions of his political future.
Lula’s poll share hits low of 35 % amid economic slowdown
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 35%5%
A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.
Governor Zema unveils new economic‑development plan ahead of presidential race
Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%
Zema’s campaign announced a new economic‑development platform, which briefly lifted his market share from 1 % to 5 % while Caiado’s share fell from 5 % to 2 % as voters re‑allocated support.
Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%
Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.
Camilo Santana discusses expanded social‑program agenda
Santana’s brief press conference on social‑programs modestly raised his visibility, nudging his market price from 1 % to 1 % (stable) while keeping the field’s overall distribution intact.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%
The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing legal and health considerations that kept Bolsonaro in the political spotlight but did not improve his electoral prospects.
Lula announces government bill to cut working hours without reducing salaries
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 46%2%
President Lula announced a legislative proposal to reduce working hours without salary cuts, a key campaign plank aimed at appealing to workers ahead of the October election. This policy move was intended to bolster Lula's support among labor groups and influenced market perceptions of his campaign strength.
Brazil proposes bill to cut working hours without reducing salaries
Lula announced a key policy proposal to reduce working hours while maintaining salaries, reinforcing his platform and potentially appealing to voters concerned about labor conditions.
Bolsonaro briefly hospitalized after falling in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 40%4%
Bolsonaro was temporarily hospitalized for medical tests after a fall in prison, raising concerns about his health and affecting market perceptions of his and his son’s candidacies.
São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas formally endorses Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 44%2%
Tarcísio de Freitas, São Paulo's popular former governor, formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, providing him with institutional infrastructure and helping close a 23-point runoff deficit against Lula.
Lula confirms Alckmin as running mate for 2026 election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 52%1%
Lula announced Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, reinforcing his campaign and boosting his market position as he sought a fourth term.
Brazil Supreme Court orders Bolsonaro’s transfer to larger prison cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 44%4%
The Supreme Court moved Bolsonaro to a more comfortable prison cell with outdoor access, addressing his health and detention conditions, which influenced market views on his ongoing political influence.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in presidential run-off
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 33%3%
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 46% in a potential run-off, reflecting a highly competitive race and contributing to market volatility and fluctuating prices for both candidates.
Fernando Haddad resigns as finance minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad rises to 3%1%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, increasing his political profile and positioning him as a potential successor to Lula, slightly boosting his market price.
Flávio Bolsonaro edges ahead of Lula in new poll
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%8%
A poll released in late March showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula da Silva for the first time in a second-round matchup, marking a significant shift in the race and causing Flávio's market price to rise sharply.
Flávio Bolsonaro decries political persecution by Lula government
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%3%
Flávio Bolsonaro publicly accused the Lula administration of political persecution against conservatives, framing his campaign as a fight against lawfare and promising to restore constitutional norms, which energized his base and increased his market support.
Former President Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%
Bolsonaro’s double‑hernia surgery, approved by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, kept the ex‑president in the public eye and sparked sympathy for his family, lifting Michelle Bolsonaro’s market share from 0 % to 1 % and slightly hurting Flávio’s odds as focus shifted to personal health.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.
Lula withdraws from Chile inauguration amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 43%3%
Lula canceled his trip to Chile's presidential inauguration after it was announced that Flávio Bolsonaro would attend, a move seen as politically significant and reflecting the polarized election climate, impacting perceptions of Lula's campaign strength.
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%3%
Datafolha poll indicated Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro were statistically tied in a runoff scenario, reflecting the tightening race and contributing to market volatility and increased support for Bolsonaro.
Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 46%3%
A Genial/Quaest poll revealed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, confirming the highly competitive nature of the race and influencing market prices accordingly.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%9%
A Genial/Quaest poll revealed a statistical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro at 41% each in a potential runoff, indicating a highly competitive race and boosting market interest in Bolsonaro's chances.
AtlasIntel poll shows Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil runoff at 46.3% vs 46.2%
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 44%18%
A major poll showing the top two candidates tied in a simulated runoff for the October election caused significant market movement, with Bolsonaro's price rising sharply as he surpassed Lula numerically for the first time in a Datafolha poll.
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News showed Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula virtually tied in a simulated second-round vote, with Bolsonaro gaining significant market support as the race tightened. This poll was the first to show parity, boosting Bolsonaro's price sharply.
AtlasIntel poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%8%
An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied in a simulated second-round vote, reflecting a significant shift in voter sentiment and market expectations.
AtlasIntel poll shows Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil runoff simulation
A Bloomberg News poll found Bolsonaro at 46.3% versus Lula at 46.2% in a simulated runoff, the first time the younger Bolsonaro surpassed Lula numerically, signaling a potential close contest.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 14%13%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent surgery while serving his prison sentence, highlighting his health issues and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his son Flávio Bolsonaro.
Lula vetoes bill that could cut Bolsonaro’s prison term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 49%4%
President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced former President Bolsonaro’s 27‑year prison term. The move was framed as a stand against the 2023 coup attempt and was interpreted as bolstering Lula’s law‑and‑order image while hurting Flávio Bolsonaro’s prospects, pushing Lula’s market price down from 53 % to 49 % and Flávio’s up from 27 % to 30 % the next day.
Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as Liberal Party's presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%11%
Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate, significantly increasing Flávio's market support as he became the main challenger to Lula da Silva.
Finance minister Haddad resigns to launch São Paulo governor bid
Fernando Haddad rises to 4%2%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to run for governor of São Paulo, raising his personal profile and adding a new name to the election field. The announcement lifted Haddad’s market share from 2 % to 4 % and gave a modest bump to Lula’s odds as the administration signalled a broader coalition.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%2%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his prison sentence, raising concerns about his health and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his family.
Poll shows Lula leading first-round but tighter runoff scenarios
A new survey by Instituto Ideia published by Canal Meio showed Lula leading in first-round scenarios but facing statistically tied runoff matchups against Bolsonaro-linked candidates, indicating a polarized electorate and tightening race. This contributed to market adjustments reflecting increased uncertainty about Lula's outright win.
Poll shows Lula leads first-round but faces tighter runoffs against Bolsonaro
A poll by Instituto Ideia showed Lula leading first-round scenarios but with narrow margins in runoff matchups against Flávio Bolsonaro, indicating a tightening race and increasing uncertainty in the market.
Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.
Fernando Haddad resigns as Brazil’s finance minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, signaling his political ambitions and potential as Lula’s successor, which affected his market support and Lula’s dynamics.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%7%
The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing judicial management of his incarceration and affecting public and market views on his status.
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 26%11%
Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate for the 2026 election, boosting Flávio's market price significantly as he became the main challenger to Lula.
Brazilian judge orders house arrest for 10 convicted in Bolsonaro coup plot
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 18%3%
A judge issued house arrest orders for several Bolsonaro allies convicted in the coup plot, highlighting ongoing legal pressures on Bolsonaro's circle and influencing market perceptions of Bolsonaro's political viability.
Lula maintains lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in early 2026 poll
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%4%
A January poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status early in the election cycle. This helped keep Lula's market price relatively high at the start of the year.
President Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%3%
On the third anniversary of the 2023 riots, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his failed coup attempt, reinforcing Bolsonaro's legal challenges and impacting perceptions of Bolsonaro's political viability.
Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time
President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his coup attempt, reinforcing Bolsonaro's continued incarceration and diminishing any market optimism for his political comeback.
Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro's prison time
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%3%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his 2023 coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's tough stance on Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces plan to name finance minister before election
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 17%2%
Flávio Bolsonaro declared he would announce his finance minister candidate before the 2026 election to signal a pro-market economic agenda, aiming to reassure investors and boost his campaign viability. This announcement helped increase his market support as it showed readiness and seriousness in economic policy.
Flávio Bolsonaro to announce finance minister before election to signal pro-market agenda
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%11%
Flávio Bolsonaro declared plans to announce his finance minister ahead of the election, aiming to reassure markets of a pro-business stance, which helped improve his polling and market support significantly.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 5%47%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for governor of São Paulo, reducing his presidential election odds as he shifted focus to state politics, which was reflected in a sharp decline in his market price.
Bolsonaro returns to jail after hernia surgery in Brasilia
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%5%
After undergoing double hernia surgery, Bolsonaro was released from hospital and returned to jail, maintaining his incarceration status and limiting his political activity, which influenced market perceptions and kept his family's candidacies under scrutiny.
Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Jair Bolsonaro to larger prison cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%
The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a more comfortable prison cell with better facilities, which was part of ongoing legal and health developments affecting his political viability and indirectly influencing market perceptions of his and his family's electoral prospects.
Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy gains momentum in polls
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
Following the announcement of his candidacy, Flávio Bolsonaro's market probability surged from 1% to 10%, reflecting increased public and political attention on his campaign as a serious contender against Lula.
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital
Michelle Bolsonaro drops to 1%10%
Bolsonaro underwent a successful double hernia surgery, temporarily affecting his political activity and public perception. His health issues and imprisonment status contributed to market uncertainty, impacting his and related candidates' probabilities.
Jair Bolsonaro appoints son Flávio Bolsonaro as presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro wrote a letter appointing his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate for the 2026 election, signaling a direct challenge to incumbent Lula and boosting Flávio's market probability from near zero to double digits.
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%
Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.
Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%
With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.
Flávio Bolsonaro ramps up campaign after father returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 16%8%
Following Jair Bolsonaro’s return to prison after his hernia operation, Flávio Bolsonaro campaigned actively on television, further raising his profile and pushing his probability up to 16 % by late December.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces presidential run, boosting his market support
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Flávio Bolsonaro's entry into the presidential race caused a sharp increase in his market price as he gained recognition as a right-wing contender, reflecting shifting dynamics in the opposition.
Flávio Bolsonaro Endorsed by Imprisoned Father for 2026 Presidential Bid
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 32%30%
Imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign, significantly boosting the far-right candidate's visibility and leading to a price surge from 2% to 32%.
Lula’s administration replaces Haddad with Dario Durigan
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%
The cabinet shuffle further signaled a shift away from Haddad’s influence, reinforcing the market’s move away from his candidacy.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Haddad’s resignation removed a senior Lula ally from the cabinet, diminishing his personal political brand and causing a steep decline in his own election market price.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces presidential candidacy with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 28%26%
Flávio Bolsonaro publicly confirmed his presidential bid, receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro's nomination while Jair is serving a prison sentence. The announcement caused immediate negative market reaction with the currency falling 3% and Bovespa dropping 4%.
Flávio Bolsonaro officially enters 2026 presidential race with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 4%3%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy for the presidency with the backing of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, marking a significant moment that boosted his visibility and polling numbers. This announcement contributed to his rise in the market from near 1-2% to higher levels.
Flávio Bolsonaro named presidential candidate in Bolsonaro’s handwritten letter
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 8%6%
During a press conference before his father’s hernia surgery, Flávio Bolsonaro read a handwritten letter in which Jair Bolsonaro formally appointed him as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate, sending Flávio’s market odds soaring from 2 % to 8 % in a single day.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as finance minister to run for governor of São Paulo, reducing his presidential election prospects and causing his market probability to drop sharply.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in Brasilia hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%
Bolsonaro underwent a medically necessary double hernia surgery, which temporarily removed him from active political engagement and raised concerns about his health, impacting market confidence in his and his family's electoral prospects.
Poll shows Lula leading all right-wing rivals ahead of 2026 election
A poll released in late November showed Lula leading potential right-wing challengers by a significant margin, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing market prices to stabilize around his candidacy.
MDA poll shows Lula leads all right-wing challengers, including Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%
A poll by MDA found Lula leading in all potential second-round matchups, with 46% against São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas (39%) and 49% against former President Bolsonaro (37%). This reinforced Lula's position and showed Bolsonaro's candidacy was still generating interest despite legal barriers.
Trump lifts tariffs on Brazilian products after meeting Lula
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%6%
Following a meeting between Lula and Trump, the US lifted tariffs on Brazilian goods, improving Brazil's economic outlook and bolstering Lula's popularity and market support.
Fernando Haddad resigns as Brazil's finance minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%
Fernando Haddad resigned from his position as finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for governor of São Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop from 52% to 2%.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years for coup attempt
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%6%
The sentencing of Jair Bolsonaro removed a major right-wing contender from the race, weakening the opposition and indirectly strengthening Lula's position in the market.
Lula announces bid for historic fourth presidential term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%13%
Lula officially declared his intention to run for a fourth term, defying expectations given his age, which caused a rally in his market price as he reaffirmed his political ambitions and leadership.
Lula Announces Fourth Presidential Term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 49%6%
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirmed he will run for a fourth non-consecutive term in the 2026 election, boosting his campaign momentum and leading to a price increase from 55% to 49%.
Electoral Institute corrects Renan Santos poll from 50 % to 4 %
Renan Santos plunges to 7%43%
A poll released by the Brazilian Electoral Institute showed Renan Santos at 50 % support early October, but a subsequent corrected poll a week later placed him at just 4 %, explaining the sharp decline from 50 % to 7 % in the market.
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as Bolsonaro’s official presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Following the veto, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would run as the official candidate of the Bolsonaro camp, giving his name a clear electoral identity and driving his market price upward.
President Lula vetoes bill that would reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula’s veto signaled a hard‑line stance against Bolsonaro’s legal challenges, boosting Lula’s perceived strength and raising Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile as the main challenger, while hurting Bolsonaro‑aligned candidates.
Lula condemns Bolsonaro's coup attempt in UN speech, boosting his democratic credentials
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 42%13%
At the UN General Assembly, Lula highlighted Brazil's defense of democracy against Bolsonaro's coup attempt, enhancing his image as a defender of democratic institutions and increasing market confidence in his candidacy.
Lula vetoes bill that would ease Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 58%3%
President Lula vetoed a Senate‑passed bill that would have reduced former President Bolsonaro’s prison term. The move was presented as a defence of democracy and boosted Lula’s standing among voters, lifting his market price from 55 % to 58 % over the following week.
Michelle Bolsonaro’s visibility drops amid father’s prison health saga
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 6%46%
After Jair Bolsonaro’s health crisis and the media focus on his incarceration, Michelle Bolsonaro’s public appearances and statements were sharply criticized, causing her market share to tumble from 52 % to 6 % within two days.
Finance Minister Haddad resigns to launch bid for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Finance Minister Haddad resigned to run for governor of São Paulo, removing him from the presidential race and causing his market probability to plunge from 52 % to 3 % within days.
Quaest poll shows Lula leads in all 2026 presidential scenarios
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%
A major poll confirmed Lula's lead in every first- and second-round configuration, with his support ranging from 34% to 41% and Bolsonaro's from 21% to 27% in different scenarios. This established Lula as the frontrunner and set the market baseline.
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