US extended deterrence commitments, NPT obligations, and the multi-year technical requirements for fissile material production, weaponization, and delivery systems continue to anchor trader expectations against any US ally acquiring nuclear weapons by the end of 2026. Recent developments, including the July 2026 US-Saudi 123 agreement focused on civilian nuclear energy and ongoing South Korean public debates amid North Korean threats, reflect policy discussions and latency concerns rather than imminent breakout. These factors sustain the strong consensus reflected in current pricing. Realistic shifts would require verifiable, rapid actions such as an ally's sudden NPT withdrawal followed by successful testing and assembly within weeks, or an unprecedented direct transfer—developments constrained by verification regimes, alliance coordination, and infrastructure timelines.