**No** at 96.3% reflects the near-term barriers to any US ally acquiring nuclear weapons by the end of 2026. Existing nuclear-armed US allies such as France and the United Kingdom are focused on modernization and expanded cooperation rather than new entrants. South Korea and Saudi Arabia have advanced civil nuclear agreements and submarine-related discussions under the current US administration, yet these remain tied to enrichment limits, IAEA safeguards, and alliance commitments that explicitly prioritize nonproliferation and denuclearization goals on the Korean Peninsula. Technical timelines for weaponization, testing, and delivery systems exceed the remaining weeks, while domestic political consensus and US extended deterrence continue to constrain breakout options. Late developments such as rapid policy reversals or undisclosed programs remain theoretically possible but face substantial procedural, diplomatic, and verification hurdles.