Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 have substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA assessments confirming limited functionality and restricted inspector access since mid-2025. U.S. intelligence reports as of March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, while stockpiles of near-weapons-grade material remain largely unaccounted for or buried under rubble with no active recovery efforts confirmed. Ongoing diplomatic proposals involve potential pauses in enrichment or dilution of highly enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief, though core disagreements persist over verification and long-term limits. These verified setbacks to breakout capacity, combined with sustained military pressure and stalled negotiations, underpin trader consensus that Iran is unlikely to produce a nuclear device before 2027.