US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, leaving enrichment plants largely inoperable and limiting IAEA access since mid-2025. US intelligence and Institute for Science and International Security assessments place breakout time at roughly one year or more if Tehran decides to pursue a weapon, supporting the 97% trader consensus that no nuclear device will be acquired before 2027. Recent satellite imagery shows reconstruction activity at sites such as Minzadayi and Taleghan 2, alongside diplomatic efforts to reduce enrichment capacity, though no active enrichment or weaponization has been confirmed. Shifts could occur if substantial 60% enriched uranium stockpiles survive undetected or if reconstruction accelerates beyond current estimates.