Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with centrifuge cascades and weaponization-related sites, significantly extending any potential breakout timeline. U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026 indicate Iran would still require roughly nine months to a year to produce a weapon if it decided to pursue one, with no confirmed resumption of enrichment or major reconstitution efforts. Limited IAEA access since mid-2025 has left the status of remaining highly enriched uranium stockpiles uncertain, while stalled diplomatic talks and ongoing sanctions have further constrained Iran's options. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear device is unlikely before 2027.