Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian enrichment sites in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving Iran's program largely dormant with no verified active enrichment or weaponization. Roughly 400 kilograms of 60 percent highly enriched uranium remains trapped underground and inaccessible, while IAEA inspectors lack access to key locations, preventing verification of stockpiles or activities. This infrastructure setback, combined with collapsed interim diplomatic efforts like the June 2026 MOU, underpins trader consensus on low near-term breakout risk. Remaining uncertainty stems from possible covert recovery of material or accelerated work at undeclared sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, though timelines for full weaponization appear extended beyond 2026 absent major shifts.