US intelligence assessments released May 5, 2026, indicate Iran's nuclear breakout time—time to produce weapons-grade uranium for one bomb—remains roughly nine months to a year, unchanged by recent US-Israeli strikes that damaged key enrichment sites like Natanz and Isfahan. IAEA reports from February highlight limited agency access to verify stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium, amid ongoing diplomatic tensions, though Iran recently softened its stance by agreeing to include nuclear issues in US talks. Trader consensus prices a nuclear detonation before 2027 at low odds, reflecting damaged infrastructure, resilient but monitored programs, and stalled weaponization efforts; escalation or covert advances could shift this, but current evidence points to delays beyond 2026.