Recent US-Israeli airstrikes on March 27-28 targeting Iran's Arak heavy-water plant, Natanz enrichment facility, and other nuclear sites have further degraded Tehran's atomic infrastructure amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, anchoring trader consensus at 88.5% for "No" on a nuclear weapon before 2027. IAEA reports confirm no radiation leaks or resumed high-level enrichment post-strikes, with inspectors denied access to damaged sites but no evidence of weaponization activities. US intelligence assessments reiterate Iran is not pursuing a bomb, despite hardliner rhetoric, as breakout timelines—previously weeks—extend under sustained military pressure and sanctions, leaving scant time for reconstitution by year-end. Escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds.