Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, degrading the program by an estimated one to two years and leaving stockpiles of uranium enriched to 60 percent under rubble with uncertain recovery prospects. IAEA inspectors lost access after the strikes, and U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed enrichment activities or reauthorized a weapons program. Ongoing diplomatic talks have produced no verified limits on enrichment or stockpile dilution yet, while IAEA reports through June 2026 show little change in the absence of new material production. These setbacks, combined with the short timeline remaining before 2027, underpin trader consensus that Iran is unlikely to acquire a nuclear weapon in the period.