**Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering much of the infrastructure inoperable and burying or scattering portions of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile.** IAEA inspectors have faced restricted access since the attacks, with no confirmed resumption of large-scale enrichment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding includes Iran's reaffirmation that it will not develop nuclear weapons, amid ongoing negotiations over stockpile disposition and verification. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the breakout timeline has lengthened to roughly nine to twelve months or longer due to these setbacks, leaving little room for completion before the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 95% reflects these structural barriers. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include undetected recovery of 60%-enriched material for rapid further enrichment, covert weaponization work at undamaged sites, or a sudden policy reversal following leadership changes.