**Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure and complicating access to stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent.** IAEA reports since then indicate Iran has not granted inspectors full access to affected facilities or verified the status of its enriched uranium, with satellite imagery showing only limited activity and no confirmed progress toward weaponization or testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and the IAEA, alongside US statements noting suspended enrichment and interest in stockpile dilution, have reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will avoid the high-risk step of a nuclear test before 2027 amid reconstruction challenges and escalation risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$196,569 Обс.
$196,569 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$196,569 Обс.
$196,569 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure and complicating access to stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent.** IAEA reports since then indicate Iran has not granted inspectors full access to affected facilities or verified the status of its enriched uranium, with satellite imagery showing only limited activity and no confirmed progress toward weaponization or testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and the IAEA, alongside US statements noting suspended enrichment and interest in stockpile dilution, have reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will avoid the high-risk step of a nuclear test before 2027 amid reconstruction challenges and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$196,569Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure and complicating access to stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent.** IAEA reports since then indicate Iran has not granted inspectors full access to affected facilities or verified the status of its enriched uranium, with satellite imagery showing only limited activity and no confirmed progress toward weaponization or testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and the IAEA, alongside US statements noting suspended enrichment and interest in stockpile dilution, have reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will avoid the high-risk step of a nuclear test before 2027 amid reconstruction challenges and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$196,569Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure and complicating access to stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent.** IAEA reports since then indicate Iran has not granted inspectors full access to affected facilities or verified the status of its enriched uranium, with satellite imagery showing only limited activity and no confirmed progress toward weaponization or testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and the IAEA, alongside US statements noting suspended enrichment and interest in stockpile dilution, have reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will avoid the high-risk step of a nuclear test before 2027 amid reconstruction challenges and escalation risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання