**Iran’s nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025–2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable with large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium trapped under rubble or in sealed tunnels.** IAEA inspectors have had no access to these facilities since mid-2025, preventing verification of material location or any enrichment activity, though satellite imagery shows no active weaponization or test preparation. Iran continues limited reconstruction at sites like Parchin’s Taleghan 2 and defensive work at Pickaxe Mountain, but these efforts focus on recovery rather than near-term testing capability. A short-lived June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum collapsed amid ongoing tensions, yet no public evidence indicates Tehran possesses the operational means or political decision to conduct a nuclear test before the end of 2026. Traders’ 95% “No” pricing reflects these structural barriers and the low probability of rapid reversal in the remaining months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$262,022 Vol.
$262,022 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$262,022 Vol.
$262,022 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Iran’s nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025–2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable with large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium trapped under rubble or in sealed tunnels.** IAEA inspectors have had no access to these facilities since mid-2025, preventing verification of material location or any enrichment activity, though satellite imagery shows no active weaponization or test preparation. Iran continues limited reconstruction at sites like Parchin’s Taleghan 2 and defensive work at Pickaxe Mountain, but these efforts focus on recovery rather than near-term testing capability. A short-lived June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum collapsed amid ongoing tensions, yet no public evidence indicates Tehran possesses the operational means or political decision to conduct a nuclear test before the end of 2026. Traders’ 95% “No” pricing reflects these structural barriers and the low probability of rapid reversal in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$262,022End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Iran’s nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025–2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable with large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium trapped under rubble or in sealed tunnels.** IAEA inspectors have had no access to these facilities since mid-2025, preventing verification of material location or any enrichment activity, though satellite imagery shows no active weaponization or test preparation. Iran continues limited reconstruction at sites like Parchin’s Taleghan 2 and defensive work at Pickaxe Mountain, but these efforts focus on recovery rather than near-term testing capability. A short-lived June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum collapsed amid ongoing tensions, yet no public evidence indicates Tehran possesses the operational means or political decision to conduct a nuclear test before the end of 2026. Traders’ 95% “No” pricing reflects these structural barriers and the low probability of rapid reversal in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$262,022End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran’s nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025–2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable with large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium trapped under rubble or in sealed tunnels.** IAEA inspectors have had no access to these facilities since mid-2025, preventing verification of material location or any enrichment activity, though satellite imagery shows no active weaponization or test preparation. Iran continues limited reconstruction at sites like Parchin’s Taleghan 2 and defensive work at Pickaxe Mountain, but these efforts focus on recovery rather than near-term testing capability. A short-lived June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum collapsed amid ongoing tensions, yet no public evidence indicates Tehran possesses the operational means or political decision to conduct a nuclear test before the end of 2026. Traders’ 95% “No” pricing reflects these structural barriers and the low probability of rapid reversal in the remaining months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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