US and Israeli airstrikes in late February 2026 targeted key Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, including Natanz and production sites, severely disrupting enrichment capabilities and extending Iran's nuclear breakout timeline beyond near-term feasibility. IAEA reports from early March confirmed no radiation increases, no evidence of weaponization activities, and urged resumed inspections amid Iran's storage of 60% enriched uranium underground at Isfahan. As of April, US intelligence assessments reiterate no active pursuit of a testable device, with diplomacy emphasized over escalation. Trader consensus at 93% "No" reflects these military setbacks, rigorous IAEA monitoring, satellite surveillance, and high barriers to clandestine testing before 2027, though regime shifts or covert advances could prompt reassessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$156,623 Vol.
$156,623 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$156,623 Vol.
$156,623 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in late February 2026 targeted key Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, including Natanz and production sites, severely disrupting enrichment capabilities and extending Iran's nuclear breakout timeline beyond near-term feasibility. IAEA reports from early March confirmed no radiation increases, no evidence of weaponization activities, and urged resumed inspections amid Iran's storage of 60% enriched uranium underground at Isfahan. As of April, US intelligence assessments reiterate no active pursuit of a testable device, with diplomacy emphasized over escalation. Trader consensus at 93% "No" reflects these military setbacks, rigorous IAEA monitoring, satellite surveillance, and high barriers to clandestine testing before 2027, though regime shifts or covert advances could prompt reassessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$156,623End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in late February 2026 targeted key Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, including Natanz and production sites, severely disrupting enrichment capabilities and extending Iran's nuclear breakout timeline beyond near-term feasibility. IAEA reports from early March confirmed no radiation increases, no evidence of weaponization activities, and urged resumed inspections amid Iran's storage of 60% enriched uranium underground at Isfahan. As of April, US intelligence assessments reiterate no active pursuit of a testable device, with diplomacy emphasized over escalation. Trader consensus at 93% "No" reflects these military setbacks, rigorous IAEA monitoring, satellite surveillance, and high barriers to clandestine testing before 2027, though regime shifts or covert advances could prompt reassessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$156,623End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes in late February 2026 targeted key Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, including Natanz and production sites, severely disrupting enrichment capabilities and extending Iran's nuclear breakout timeline beyond near-term feasibility. IAEA reports from early March confirmed no radiation increases, no evidence of weaponization activities, and urged resumed inspections amid Iran's storage of 60% enriched uranium underground at Isfahan. As of April, US intelligence assessments reiterate no active pursuit of a testable device, with diplomacy emphasized over escalation. Trader consensus at 93% "No" reflects these military setbacks, rigorous IAEA monitoring, satellite surveillance, and high barriers to clandestine testing before 2027, though regime shifts or covert advances could prompt reassessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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