US intelligence assessments reported May 4-6, 2026, indicate Iran's nuclear weapon timeline remains 9-12 months despite two months of US-Israeli airstrikes, including limited new damage to key facilities like Natanz and Fordow, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA's February report confirms a 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—potentially enough for several weapons if further processed—but notes no resumed enrichment or weaponization activities since June 2025 strikes, with inspector access curtailed. Ongoing conflict dynamics, coupled with emerging US-Iran diplomatic talks on a nuclear framework, heighten barriers to testing, though sudden leadership shifts or undetected advances could alter odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$189,905 Vol.
$189,905 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$189,905 Vol.
$189,905 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments reported May 4-6, 2026, indicate Iran's nuclear weapon timeline remains 9-12 months despite two months of US-Israeli airstrikes, including limited new damage to key facilities like Natanz and Fordow, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA's February report confirms a 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—potentially enough for several weapons if further processed—but notes no resumed enrichment or weaponization activities since June 2025 strikes, with inspector access curtailed. Ongoing conflict dynamics, coupled with emerging US-Iran diplomatic talks on a nuclear framework, heighten barriers to testing, though sudden leadership shifts or undetected advances could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$189,905End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments reported May 4-6, 2026, indicate Iran's nuclear weapon timeline remains 9-12 months despite two months of US-Israeli airstrikes, including limited new damage to key facilities like Natanz and Fordow, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA's February report confirms a 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—potentially enough for several weapons if further processed—but notes no resumed enrichment or weaponization activities since June 2025 strikes, with inspector access curtailed. Ongoing conflict dynamics, coupled with emerging US-Iran diplomatic talks on a nuclear framework, heighten barriers to testing, though sudden leadership shifts or undetected advances could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$189,905End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments reported May 4-6, 2026, indicate Iran's nuclear weapon timeline remains 9-12 months despite two months of US-Israeli airstrikes, including limited new damage to key facilities like Natanz and Fordow, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA's February report confirms a 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—potentially enough for several weapons if further processed—but notes no resumed enrichment or weaponization activities since June 2025 strikes, with inspector access curtailed. Ongoing conflict dynamics, coupled with emerging US-Iran diplomatic talks on a nuclear framework, heighten barriers to testing, though sudden leadership shifts or undetected advances could alter odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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