US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains around one year despite US and Israeli strikes damaging key sites like Natanz in 2025-2026, with limited rebuilding progress and no evidence of test preparations. IAEA reports highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities and pre-strike stockpiles of 440kg 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but unverified for diversion—yet no confirmed weaponization activities. Tehran softened its stance in late April, agreeing to include nuclear limits in US talks amid proposal exchanges, signaling de-escalation that traders view as major barriers to a test before 2027 alongside sanctions, military threats, and technical hurdles for detonation. Late-breaking escalation or diplomacy collapse could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$189,748 Vol.
$189,748 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$189,748 Vol.
$189,748 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains around one year despite US and Israeli strikes damaging key sites like Natanz in 2025-2026, with limited rebuilding progress and no evidence of test preparations. IAEA reports highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities and pre-strike stockpiles of 440kg 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but unverified for diversion—yet no confirmed weaponization activities. Tehran softened its stance in late April, agreeing to include nuclear limits in US talks amid proposal exchanges, signaling de-escalation that traders view as major barriers to a test before 2027 alongside sanctions, military threats, and technical hurdles for detonation. Late-breaking escalation or diplomacy collapse could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$189,748End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains around one year despite US and Israeli strikes damaging key sites like Natanz in 2025-2026, with limited rebuilding progress and no evidence of test preparations. IAEA reports highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities and pre-strike stockpiles of 440kg 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but unverified for diversion—yet no confirmed weaponization activities. Tehran softened its stance in late April, agreeing to include nuclear limits in US talks amid proposal exchanges, signaling de-escalation that traders view as major barriers to a test before 2027 alongside sanctions, military threats, and technical hurdles for detonation. Late-breaking escalation or diplomacy collapse could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$189,748End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains around one year despite US and Israeli strikes damaging key sites like Natanz in 2025-2026, with limited rebuilding progress and no evidence of test preparations. IAEA reports highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities and pre-strike stockpiles of 440kg 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but unverified for diversion—yet no confirmed weaponization activities. Tehran softened its stance in late April, agreeing to include nuclear limits in US talks amid proposal exchanges, signaling de-escalation that traders view as major barriers to a test before 2027 alongside sanctions, military threats, and technical hurdles for detonation. Late-breaking escalation or diplomacy collapse could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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