Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes—Operations Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and subsequent attacks on Natanz, Arak, and Yazd facilities through late March 2026—that have severely damaged key enrichment and weaponization infrastructure, per IAEA assessments confirming no evidence of active nuclear weapon development. Supreme Leader Khamenei's February 28 assassination amid these strikes further disrupted leadership continuity, while a U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire agreed April 7, with talks in Islamabad, signals de-escalation. Ongoing IAEA monitoring and intelligence reports underscore the program's multi-year setback, though rapid reconstitution or covert advances could shift odds if verified.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$156,623 Vol.
$156,623 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$156,623 Vol.
$156,623 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes—Operations Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and subsequent attacks on Natanz, Arak, and Yazd facilities through late March 2026—that have severely damaged key enrichment and weaponization infrastructure, per IAEA assessments confirming no evidence of active nuclear weapon development. Supreme Leader Khamenei's February 28 assassination amid these strikes further disrupted leadership continuity, while a U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire agreed April 7, with talks in Islamabad, signals de-escalation. Ongoing IAEA monitoring and intelligence reports underscore the program's multi-year setback, though rapid reconstitution or covert advances could shift odds if verified.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$156,623End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes—Operations Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and subsequent attacks on Natanz, Arak, and Yazd facilities through late March 2026—that have severely damaged key enrichment and weaponization infrastructure, per IAEA assessments confirming no evidence of active nuclear weapon development. Supreme Leader Khamenei's February 28 assassination amid these strikes further disrupted leadership continuity, while a U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire agreed April 7, with talks in Islamabad, signals de-escalation. Ongoing IAEA monitoring and intelligence reports underscore the program's multi-year setback, though rapid reconstitution or covert advances could shift odds if verified.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$156,623End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 93% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes—Operations Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and subsequent attacks on Natanz, Arak, and Yazd facilities through late March 2026—that have severely damaged key enrichment and weaponization infrastructure, per IAEA assessments confirming no evidence of active nuclear weapon development. Supreme Leader Khamenei's February 28 assassination amid these strikes further disrupted leadership continuity, while a U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire agreed April 7, with talks in Islamabad, signals de-escalation. Ongoing IAEA monitoring and intelligence reports underscore the program's multi-year setback, though rapid reconstitution or covert advances could shift odds if verified.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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