Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and March 2026 severely damaged Iran’s enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related sites, leaving enrichment infrastructure largely inoperable and setting back any potential timeline for a testable device. Satellite imagery from September and October 2026 shows renewed activity and cleanup at the Minzadayi compound, yet U.S. intelligence assessments and IAEA reporting indicate roughly a year or more would be required to produce fissile material and complete weaponization if Iran made that choice. Ongoing diplomatic talks, sanctions pressure, and restricted IAEA access reinforce trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear test by December 31, 2026, remains unlikely. Late-breaking acceleration in covert reconstruction or a sudden policy shift could still alter the outlook.