Recent US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible or unverified. IAEA reports confirm suspended verification at key locations, non-compliance with safeguards, and no evidence of resumed large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities amid a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding that has since lapsed. These factors, alongside ongoing diplomatic negotiations and international pressure, underpin trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from failed talks prompting accelerated Iranian recovery efforts or undetected material extraction from damaged sites.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$262,022 Vol.
$262,022 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$262,022 Vol.
$262,022 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible or unverified. IAEA reports confirm suspended verification at key locations, non-compliance with safeguards, and no evidence of resumed large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities amid a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding that has since lapsed. These factors, alongside ongoing diplomatic negotiations and international pressure, underpin trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from failed talks prompting accelerated Iranian recovery efforts or undetected material extraction from damaged sites.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$262,022End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible or unverified. IAEA reports confirm suspended verification at key locations, non-compliance with safeguards, and no evidence of resumed large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities amid a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding that has since lapsed. These factors, alongside ongoing diplomatic negotiations and international pressure, underpin trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from failed talks prompting accelerated Iranian recovery efforts or undetected material extraction from damaged sites.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$262,022End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible or unverified. IAEA reports confirm suspended verification at key locations, non-compliance with safeguards, and no evidence of resumed large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities amid a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding that has since lapsed. These factors, alongside ongoing diplomatic negotiations and international pressure, underpin trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from failed talks prompting accelerated Iranian recovery efforts or undetected material extraction from damaged sites.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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