Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$210,206 Vol.
$210,206 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$210,206 Vol.
$210,206 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$210,206End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$210,206End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions