US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 damaged or destroyed key enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, leaving enrichment capacity severely limited and IAEA inspectors without access since mid-2025. Estimates from US intelligence and the Institute for Science and International Security place the time to a deliverable weapon at roughly one year or more if Iran commits to weaponization, a timeline that extends well beyond 2026 given the need to rebuild centrifuges, verify surviving 60% enriched uranium stockpiles, and complete assembly and testing infrastructure. Ongoing diplomatic talks with the United States further emphasize verifiable reductions in enrichment capacity as a condition for ending the conflict. Satellite imagery shows reconstruction activity at sites like Minzadayi and Pickaxe Mountain, yet this reflects post-strike repairs rather than operational sprint capability. A nuclear test before 2027 would require an unprecedented acceleration amid these constraints, though undetected parallel efforts or sudden policy shifts could still alter the outlook.