US intelligence assessments released May 4, 2026, indicate Iran's timeline to develop a nuclear weapon remains approximately one year, unchanged despite months of US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities since the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer, reflecting limited new damage and no acceleration toward weaponization or testing. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and restricted inspections, but no evidence of active explosive testing or breakout activities. Amid ongoing war and Tehran's review of a US diplomatic proposal to end hostilities, traders' 91.5% consensus on "No" nuclear test before 2027 underscores persistent barriers like degraded infrastructure, international sanctions, and absent political signals for escalation, though sudden regime shifts or covert advances could alter odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$189,940 Обс.
$189,940 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$189,940 Обс.
$189,940 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released May 4, 2026, indicate Iran's timeline to develop a nuclear weapon remains approximately one year, unchanged despite months of US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities since the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer, reflecting limited new damage and no acceleration toward weaponization or testing. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and restricted inspections, but no evidence of active explosive testing or breakout activities. Amid ongoing war and Tehran's review of a US diplomatic proposal to end hostilities, traders' 91.5% consensus on "No" nuclear test before 2027 underscores persistent barriers like degraded infrastructure, international sanctions, and absent political signals for escalation, though sudden regime shifts or covert advances could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$189,940Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released May 4, 2026, indicate Iran's timeline to develop a nuclear weapon remains approximately one year, unchanged despite months of US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities since the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer, reflecting limited new damage and no acceleration toward weaponization or testing. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and restricted inspections, but no evidence of active explosive testing or breakout activities. Amid ongoing war and Tehran's review of a US diplomatic proposal to end hostilities, traders' 91.5% consensus on "No" nuclear test before 2027 underscores persistent barriers like degraded infrastructure, international sanctions, and absent political signals for escalation, though sudden regime shifts or covert advances could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$189,940Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released May 4, 2026, indicate Iran's timeline to develop a nuclear weapon remains approximately one year, unchanged despite months of US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities since the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer, reflecting limited new damage and no acceleration toward weaponization or testing. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and restricted inspections, but no evidence of active explosive testing or breakout activities. Amid ongoing war and Tehran's review of a US diplomatic proposal to end hostilities, traders' 91.5% consensus on "No" nuclear test before 2027 underscores persistent barriers like degraded infrastructure, international sanctions, and absent political signals for escalation, though sudden regime shifts or covert advances could alter odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання