Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying most centrifuges and extending Iran's estimated breakout timeline for a nuclear weapon to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. No resumption of uranium enrichment has been detected, IAEA inspectors have faced restricted access since mid-2025, and Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade material remains largely contained amid damaged infrastructure. Ongoing diplomatic talks following the April 2026 ceasefire further support trader expectations that Tehran lacks both the immediate capacity and strategic intent to conduct a nuclear test before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$196,569 Обс.
$196,569 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$196,569 Обс.
$196,569 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying most centrifuges and extending Iran's estimated breakout timeline for a nuclear weapon to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. No resumption of uranium enrichment has been detected, IAEA inspectors have faced restricted access since mid-2025, and Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade material remains largely contained amid damaged infrastructure. Ongoing diplomatic talks following the April 2026 ceasefire further support trader expectations that Tehran lacks both the immediate capacity and strategic intent to conduct a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$196,569Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying most centrifuges and extending Iran's estimated breakout timeline for a nuclear weapon to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. No resumption of uranium enrichment has been detected, IAEA inspectors have faced restricted access since mid-2025, and Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade material remains largely contained amid damaged infrastructure. Ongoing diplomatic talks following the April 2026 ceasefire further support trader expectations that Tehran lacks both the immediate capacity and strategic intent to conduct a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$196,569Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying most centrifuges and extending Iran's estimated breakout timeline for a nuclear weapon to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. No resumption of uranium enrichment has been detected, IAEA inspectors have faced restricted access since mid-2025, and Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade material remains largely contained amid damaged infrastructure. Ongoing diplomatic talks following the April 2026 ceasefire further support trader expectations that Tehran lacks both the immediate capacity and strategic intent to conduct a nuclear test before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання