US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Isfahan in early March 2026 have severely set back Tehran's program, with IAEA reports confirming no radiation leaks or escalation to weapons-grade activity and noting restricted access to damaged facilities. A February IAEA assessment highlighted Iran's 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no diversion for military use, aligning with US intelligence conclusions that Tehran has not resumed weaponization efforts. Amid a fragile ceasefire and ongoing US-Iran negotiations for IAEA-monitored restraints, traders' 92.5% implied probability on "No" reflects these military setbacks, diplomatic de-escalation signals, and absence of test indicators, though rapid reconstitution or regime shifts could theoretically alter dynamics before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$171,057 Обс.
$171,057 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$171,057 Обс.
$171,057 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Isfahan in early March 2026 have severely set back Tehran's program, with IAEA reports confirming no radiation leaks or escalation to weapons-grade activity and noting restricted access to damaged facilities. A February IAEA assessment highlighted Iran's 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no diversion for military use, aligning with US intelligence conclusions that Tehran has not resumed weaponization efforts. Amid a fragile ceasefire and ongoing US-Iran negotiations for IAEA-monitored restraints, traders' 92.5% implied probability on "No" reflects these military setbacks, diplomatic de-escalation signals, and absence of test indicators, though rapid reconstitution or regime shifts could theoretically alter dynamics before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$171,057Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Isfahan in early March 2026 have severely set back Tehran's program, with IAEA reports confirming no radiation leaks or escalation to weapons-grade activity and noting restricted access to damaged facilities. A February IAEA assessment highlighted Iran's 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no diversion for military use, aligning with US intelligence conclusions that Tehran has not resumed weaponization efforts. Amid a fragile ceasefire and ongoing US-Iran negotiations for IAEA-monitored restraints, traders' 92.5% implied probability on "No" reflects these military setbacks, diplomatic de-escalation signals, and absence of test indicators, though rapid reconstitution or regime shifts could theoretically alter dynamics before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$171,057Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Isfahan in early March 2026 have severely set back Tehran's program, with IAEA reports confirming no radiation leaks or escalation to weapons-grade activity and noting restricted access to damaged facilities. A February IAEA assessment highlighted Iran's 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no diversion for military use, aligning with US intelligence conclusions that Tehran has not resumed weaponization efforts. Amid a fragile ceasefire and ongoing US-Iran negotiations for IAEA-monitored restraints, traders' 92.5% implied probability on "No" reflects these military setbacks, diplomatic de-escalation signals, and absence of test indicators, though rapid reconstitution or regime shifts could theoretically alter dynamics before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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