Iranian actions tied to control of Strait of Hormuz shipping routes have shaped trader assessments for markets on direct targeting of Oman. Recent IRGC claims of strikes on navigation and radar infrastructure at sites such as Didamar Island, alongside repeated attacks on commercial vessels near Omani waters and ports including Sohar and Duqm, reflect efforts to enforce designated corridors amid ongoing maritime incidents and naval mine reports. Diplomatic talks between Iranian and Omani officials on interim transit arrangements and mine clearance continue in parallel, while broader U.S.-Iran exchanges and regional security demands add uncertainty. These verified military and diplomatic developments through early November keep probabilities for near-term action in the 45-55 percent range, with resolution hinging on whether future strikes meet qualifying criteria before specified deadlines.