Despite a November 21 IAEA Board resolution censuring Iran for failing to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites—prompting Tehran to condemn the move and reserve "all options" including NPT withdrawal—traders maintain a 74% implied probability against Iran exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027. This consensus reflects Iran's pattern of rhetorical escalation without substantive action, even amid October's missile exchanges with Israel, as withdrawal would forfeit diplomatic leverage in stalled JCPOA revival talks and invite harsher sanctions. Supreme Leader Khamenei's past opposition to full exit, coupled with domestic economic pressures favoring negotiations, underpins skepticism, though US policy shifts or further IAEA actions could alter odds ahead of the 2026 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$83,313 Vol.
$83,313 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$83,313 Vol.
$83,313 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite a November 21 IAEA Board resolution censuring Iran for failing to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites—prompting Tehran to condemn the move and reserve "all options" including NPT withdrawal—traders maintain a 74% implied probability against Iran exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027. This consensus reflects Iran's pattern of rhetorical escalation without substantive action, even amid October's missile exchanges with Israel, as withdrawal would forfeit diplomatic leverage in stalled JCPOA revival talks and invite harsher sanctions. Supreme Leader Khamenei's past opposition to full exit, coupled with domestic economic pressures favoring negotiations, underpins skepticism, though US policy shifts or further IAEA actions could alter odds ahead of the 2026 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$83,313End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite a November 21 IAEA Board resolution censuring Iran for failing to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites—prompting Tehran to condemn the move and reserve "all options" including NPT withdrawal—traders maintain a 74% implied probability against Iran exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027. This consensus reflects Iran's pattern of rhetorical escalation without substantive action, even amid October's missile exchanges with Israel, as withdrawal would forfeit diplomatic leverage in stalled JCPOA revival talks and invite harsher sanctions. Supreme Leader Khamenei's past opposition to full exit, coupled with domestic economic pressures favoring negotiations, underpins skepticism, though US policy shifts or further IAEA actions could alter odds ahead of the 2026 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$83,313End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite a November 21 IAEA Board resolution censuring Iran for failing to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites—prompting Tehran to condemn the move and reserve "all options" including NPT withdrawal—traders maintain a 74% implied probability against Iran exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027. This consensus reflects Iran's pattern of rhetorical escalation without substantive action, even amid October's missile exchanges with Israel, as withdrawal would forfeit diplomatic leverage in stalled JCPOA revival talks and invite harsher sanctions. Supreme Leader Khamenei's past opposition to full exit, coupled with domestic economic pressures favoring negotiations, underpins skepticism, though US policy shifts or further IAEA actions could alter odds ahead of the 2026 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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