Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical talks, have produced limited progress on Iran's uranium enrichment program. Core disagreements remain over US demands for facility dismantlement, zero or minimal enrichment, and transfer of stockpiles versus Iran's insistence on its NPT right to peaceful enrichment activities. IAEA reports through mid-2026 highlight unresolved verification issues and continued Iranian stockpiles of enriched uranium. No official statements or diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 60 days indicate Tehran will commit to ending enrichment by the September 30 deadline. Traders assign high probability to "No" due to these persistent gaps and the short timeline for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
8% chance
$55,260 Vol.
$55,260 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
8% chance
$55,260 Vol.
$55,260 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical talks, have produced limited progress on Iran's uranium enrichment program. Core disagreements remain over US demands for facility dismantlement, zero or minimal enrichment, and transfer of stockpiles versus Iran's insistence on its NPT right to peaceful enrichment activities. IAEA reports through mid-2026 highlight unresolved verification issues and continued Iranian stockpiles of enriched uranium. No official statements or diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 60 days indicate Tehran will commit to ending enrichment by the September 30 deadline. Traders assign high probability to "No" due to these persistent gaps and the short timeline for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$55,260End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical talks, have produced limited progress on Iran's uranium enrichment program. Core disagreements remain over US demands for facility dismantlement, zero or minimal enrichment, and transfer of stockpiles versus Iran's insistence on its NPT right to peaceful enrichment activities. IAEA reports through mid-2026 highlight unresolved verification issues and continued Iranian stockpiles of enriched uranium. No official statements or diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 60 days indicate Tehran will commit to ending enrichment by the September 30 deadline. Traders assign high probability to "No" due to these persistent gaps and the short timeline for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$55,260End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical talks, have produced limited progress on Iran's uranium enrichment program. Core disagreements remain over US demands for facility dismantlement, zero or minimal enrichment, and transfer of stockpiles versus Iran's insistence on its NPT right to peaceful enrichment activities. IAEA reports through mid-2026 highlight unresolved verification issues and continued Iranian stockpiles of enriched uranium. No official statements or diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 60 days indicate Tehran will commit to ending enrichment by the September 30 deadline. Traders assign high probability to "No" due to these persistent gaps and the short timeline for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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